Too Tight on Bubble? 10+1

[Eric Draven]

It's been a fairly long SNG, and the blinds are going up in the next minute. The raiser is pretty solid, but there's also a good chance that he's stealing and I have him dominated. On the other hand there's an almost as good chance he has a pocket pair, and then I'm a slight dog. If I call, I only have about 3 BB left, and likely bust on the bubble... Am I over-thinking this and playing too tight?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t4380)
BB (t4480)
UTG (t3080)
Button (t1560)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t3080</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t3155

[NYCNative]

Yes. Too tight. Call. You think he's only pushing KK or AA?

[treeofwisdom7]

i might fold this one.. if it is a PP then its a slight -EV

but i dont have my poker stove.. and i didnt run the ICM. which might change my mind

but i would use a little read to decide if i call or not

[DDH]

Yeah, this one, you need to ask yourself if you're playing to win the tournament, or simply to make the money. Playing to win the tournament, I don't think you can fold here.

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this one, you need to ask yourself if you're playing to win the tournament, or simply to make the money. Playing to win the tournament, I don't think you can fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was in this situation last night .. AQo n folded and still won 1st.

[Eric Draven]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this one, you need to ask yourself if you're playing to win the tournament, or simply to make the money. Playing to win the tournament, I don't think you can fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ended up winning the whole thing anyways, I was just wondering how close, or bad, this fold was. I don't know, I just felt like it was the right thing to do at the time... I was about 50/50 calling/folding, and ended up going with folding this time - was it really that bad, considering the stacks and such? If I was a short stack OR a monster stack, it would have insta-called... But was this fold that horrible?

[NYCNative]

You folded the 4th best possible hand against a player who you had covered. Sorry but I can't fold that.

[psyduck]

It's pretty close. Even against a smaller ace or KQ, you're not THAT much of a favorite. Against any PP, it's a flip. Against two unders, you're a 5:3 favorite.

What might make this is a fold is stack size and position, and the fact that villain went all in from --&gt;&gt; UTG &lt;&lt;--. If it was the button, then it might be a call, since you can put him on a steal more easily. Also, the next hand, you'll be the button with the largest stack and big blinds, so you can steal a lot then..

I'm probably making a huge mistake, but I wouldn't call this here. I hope others see this thread and give me a kick in the ass /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
You folded the 4th best possible hand against a player who you had covered. Sorry but I can't fold that.

[/ QUOTE ]

i miss the point

[NYCNative]

Sure do.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

On the bubble and covered by utg, I think this is a fold. I'm not good with ICM so I'm not going to run numbers, but if I'm wrong it's definitely close.

[Voltron87]

I fold this about 20% of the time, when I really think raiser has a real hand and not a good 4 player hand, and I think if I fold I can still steal at will. If I don't think I can steal I can't fold here.

[smcannon]

I would probably be folding myself. You have a decent stack and I personally wouldn't want to risk it seeing that there's a short stack that's 1/4 my size.

First in, then yeah, I'm raising 3BB and going from there. But calling a huge all in raise when there's still a great chance of falling into the money.....I think you did the right thing.

[gildwulf]

How much longer at party poker are you going to wait around for a hand like AK? Is this because you don't want to deal with coinflips on the bubble? Unless you have a solid read on this guy, I would say auto-call for me at 10+1...

Z

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
On the bubble and covered by utg, I think this is a fold. I'm not good with ICM so I'm not going to run numbers, but if I'm wrong it's definitely close.

[/ QUOTE ]

its not close. come up with a push range where you are not crushing this guy, seriously.

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the bubble and covered by utg, I think this is a fold. I'm not good with ICM so I'm not going to run numbers, but if I'm wrong it's definitely close.

[/ QUOTE ]

its not close. come up with a push range where you are not crushing this guy, seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

PP.

[Voltron87]

yeah, the guy is pushing 22-AA?


ugh, if hes pushing 22-88 hes also pushing AT-AQ, all those good cards.

OR MAYBE HE HAS NOTHING AND IS STEALING ON THE BUBBLE.

i said i fold this 1/5 times under specific conditions, that the table is very tight and i can steal at will or this player is a real rock (a real real rock).

[mike28]

I think I'm folding this. What's the ICM numbers for AK vs any 2?

With close to 4k chips and only 1/200 blinds there's no reason for you to get involved here.

[wdcbooks]

I am shocked at the chorus of folds, but that always seems to be the consensus among a pretty weak tight crowd. Let's review:

1. This is a 10+1, open pusher could have almost anything, although I would guess most likely is Ax. If you are really unlucky you will run into something sooted.

2. One poster says you "aren't that big a favorite against KQ or a lower ace", exactly what kind of favorite are you waiting to be then?

3. Most of your profit comes from winning these. Calling here is an easy shortcut to that goal. Against the pusher's likely range you are unquestionably well ahead.

4. You can almost certainly eliminate the only two hands that are real trouble for you. Is there anyone who plays AA or KK this way?

There seems to a tendency here to believe that you should pass up a chance to get all your money in the middle, because there will be a better opportunity or better cards later. Being a scary good player cannot conjure up better cards than your opponent's. Part of becoming good is accepting that you need to make the most of the few big hands you get in a short tourney. Instead there seems to be a lot of people looking for excuses to fold their best hands.

There is another poster (adanthar I believe) who is fond of saying that if you called every odd seeming raise or wild overbet with your good hands you would rarely be wrong. The same holds here.

Call fer chrissakes!

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
There is another poster (adanthar I believe) who is fond of saying that if you called every odd seeming raise or wild overbet with your good hands you would rarely be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

To be fair, this is only at low limits.

But yes, I would call this.

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, the guy is pushing 22-AA?


ugh, if hes pushing 22-88 hes also pushing AT-AQ, all those good cards.

OR MAYBE HE HAS NOTHING AND IS STEALING ON THE BUBBLE.

i said i fold this 1/5 times under specific conditions, that the table is very tight and i can steal at will or this player is a real rock (a real real rock).

[/ QUOTE ]

i really cant say what i would do unless i was in the game. the blinds are small .

[Nottom]

I probably fold only becasue the stacks are so deep, I don't see much point in gambling for my whole stack here. If this was on party, I'm calling about 95% of the time.

[DasLeben]

I fold for the reason Nottom said: stacks are deep. There's really no need to go coinflipping with 20BBs.

Also I hate hate hate the comment in this thread about how AKo is the 4th best starting hand (it's not). That itself is not a good argument as to why you should call. Sometimes it's correct to fold queens, sometimes it's correct to fold kings. It's all dependent on other factors.

[jeffraider]

I call with AK, AA-QQ for sure, and MAYBE AQ/JJ if I have some sort of read that the person is on the weakside. I like calling AK because you have a bunch of his range dominated (AQ-A2, KQ-K9) and are coinflipping against his PPs, which he won't have all the time. Basically, with AK, you're not looking at a coinflip because his range likely includes many hands that you beat, so basically put your equity at 48% or whatever for coinflips, decrease it for AA/KK and then increase it a bunch for all of the hands you dominate, and I'm guessing you're probably 65% or better against his range.

The thing that makes me so tight here is the stack sizes. He's pushed 15BBs UTG, and while UTG doesn't mean anything really four-handed, the 15BBs part worries me because he really doesn't need this pot, and it smells like he's found a hand he likes but doesn't want to chance taking a flop with, so I think I can safely give him a range of JJ-22, AK-A2, KQ-K8, QJ-Q9, JT, T9. Against this range you're looking very good with AK, so I call. With AQ your equity drops quite a bit, so I'd need to feel more strongly about him being weak.

Keep in mind how you'll look after this hand. Probably 65% or more of the time, you'll have a big old stack and be able to run the [censored] out of the table and almost guarantee a 2nd place finish with a very reasonable chance at first. 35% or less of the time, you'll have 1300ish chips with the blinds moved up to (I think 150/300 but I don't play pokerstars) and that situation is not scary to me at all because I guarantee I play better shortstack than the button with 1500 chips and he gets mashed by both blinds first. So in my little world I feel like I've got a better than 60% chance of eeking into the money anyways.

[dhende3]

I call this half the time depending on the table tightness. The fact that it is an 11 though means there will probably be no gap at all and I probably call.