Time to gamble?

[gcDanno]

Stars $30 rebuy satellite for WSOP. 2 thru 13 get $650, 14th $40. 16th player busts just as this hand is dealt. I am major short stack. Next stack at other table is 11k. Reads unimportant. Is this it, or should I wait and hope for a miracle hand? I've been a major shorty since shortly after the rebuy period ended. At this point, I'd be happy to get the $650 and call it a night.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (8 handed) 200 ANTE.converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t28754)
Button (t66292)
SB (t25200)
BB (t21020)
UTG (t118393)
UTG+1 (t61576)
MP1 (t59286)
Hero (t4150)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t4000, Hero ????

[dmk]

yes, gl

[transmitt]

maybe as good as its going to get, don't like it, but w/ 1.25 BB's got to (hopefully) flip the coin.

[dmk]

Its not even that much, only 1BB. There's no sense in waiting for the BB to get all-in. Its 4 hands and you'll lose an extra 1200 just getting to that point on antes. If you want to sneak into the $, this is your best opportunity, unfortuantely.

[durron597]

Clear fold IMO. The reason is that the BB is definitely coming along in addition to MP2, and 66 is a horrible hand multiway, since one of them will likely pair.

[dmk]

whats your plan then? fold until you get to the BB w/ .5BBs? so you can possibly double up w/ a random hand to 1BB (maybe triple to 1.5BB), pay the SB.....

[DVC Calif]

Fold, click "Post Blinds and Fold", and pray you don't get anted out before the other shorties.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
whats your plan then? fold until you get to the BB w/ .5BBs? so you can possibly double up w/ a random hand to 1BB (maybe triple to 1.5BB), pay the SB.....

[/ QUOTE ]

I would rather go allin with K7o in earlier position and hope to go HU with the BB.

[dmk]

are you serious? he's all-in on his BB in 4 hands. he has 4k and the next shortest stack has 11k.

[dmk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
whats your plan then? fold until you get to the BB w/ .5BBs? so you can possibly double up w/ a random hand to 1BB (maybe triple to 1.5BB), pay the SB.....

[/ QUOTE ]

I would rather go allin with K7o in earlier position and hope to go HU with the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

your all-in is less than a call. you think you won't get 20 calls behind you? at least here you have a pair and you already had 2 folds in front of you.

[durron597]

Look at how quickly the GoCee numbers for 66 drop off as compared to QJs. Sure it's better against one opponent but we can ignore that as the BB will play.

Opp: 66: QJs:
1 63.3 60.3
2 43.2 44.1
3 31.5 35.6
4 24.5 30.1
5 20.1 26.1
6 17.3 23.0
7 15.4 20.7
8 14.0 18.7
9 13.1 17.1

[chok1]

I think any hand you go all in with is asking to be called. When your all in is only the Minimum bet, I find that I usually get called by more the one person and they check it through hoping to just knock me out so they are closer to the money. In that case 67s would be much better than 66. You also had 4 more chances to get a better hand. Going all in with 66, to me, is the same as getting blinded out. You know it might be multiway and all you have is a decent heads up hand. Should've waited.

[gcDanno]

I agreed that it was time to play the hand. I figured any hand I play, I'm probably going to be playing multi-handed anyway so I decided to call (after the ante, i had less than the 4k blinds). Also, what are the odds that on this kind of bubble, that people are going to play anything until I'm gone anyway? Boy was I wrong!

The results of the hand absolutely do not change my mind that I should have played this hand or not, and this is not a bad beat story! I was way behind when I put my money in.

I have posted the entire game log, because you just don't see this type of hand come along that often. As it turns out, if I fold, I win the $650 this hand! Ain't Poker fun!

PokerStars Game #1809546107: Tournament #8377541, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (2000/4000) - 2005/06/01 - 03:11:54 (ET)
Table '8377541 34' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: bib1 (28754 in chips)
Seat 2: Joe_Russo (66292 in chips)
Seat 3: tjassaa (25200 in chips)
Seat 4: ripdog71 (21020 in chips)
Seat 5: LAJG (118393 in chips)
Seat 7: Badass2635 (61576 in chips)
Seat 8: nupsee (59286 in chips)
Seat 9: gcDanno (4150 in chips)
bib1: posts the ante 200
Joe_Russo: posts the ante 200
tjassaa: posts the ante 200
ripdog71: posts the ante 200
LAJG: posts the ante 200
Badass2635: posts the ante 200
nupsee: posts the ante 200
gcDanno: posts the ante 200
tjassaa: posts small blind 2000
ripdog71: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gcDanno [6s 6c]
LAJG: folds
Badass2635: folds
nupsee: calls 4000
gcDanno: calls 3950 and is all-in
bib1: raises 24554 to 28554 and is all-in
Joe_Russo: raises 37538 to 66092 and is all-in
tjassaa: folds
ripdog71: folds
nupsee: calls 55086 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [6h Ts 2d]
*** TURN *** [6h Ts 2d] [Th]
*** RIVER *** [6h Ts 2d Th] [Qc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
nupsee: shows [Ad Ac] (two pair, Aces and Tens)
Joe_Russo: shows [Qd Qs] (a full house, Queens full of Tens)
Joe_Russo collected 61064 from side pot-2
bib1: shows [9s 9c] (two pair, Tens and Nines)
Joe_Russo collected 73862 from side pot-1
gcDanno: shows [6s 6c] (a full house, Sixes full of Tens)
Joe_Russo collected 23350 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 158276 Main pot 23350. Side pot-1 73862. Side pot-2 61064. | Rake 0
Board [6h Ts 2d Th Qc]
Seat 1: bib1 showed [9s 9c] and lost with two pair, Tens and Nines
Seat 2: Joe_Russo (button) showed [Qd Qs] and won (158276) with a full house, Queens full of Tens
Seat 3: tjassaa (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: ripdog71 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: LAJG folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Badass2635 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: nupsee showed [Ad Ac] and lost with two pair, Aces and Tens
Seat 9: gcDanno showed [6s 6c] and lost with a full house, Sixes full of Tens

[z32fanatic]

I would call/push and here's why. The CO is short stacked and may push a hand like KJo with a limper in front hoping to get it heads up with you. Also, the SB might not even complete because he is short stacked. If the CO folds, the only the button can limp, and he may have trash. Best case scenario is the CO pushes and MP1 folds and you get it heads up against him. Worst case scenario is the button limps and it's probably 4 way. I say push.

Edit: Now I see your post. I thought the CO would push, but obviously you were done in this hand. I think you played it right though.

[durron597]

That was the other thing in my mind - late in a rebuy tourney you will probably be against aggressive players, so a limp is suspect. I really think it's better to wait for a multiway hand than to call allin with 66.

[blockafor]

This is very close to the bubble so aggression will be lower than usual.

I'd play this hand here and hope that its just utg+1, you, and the BB. If you get many overcalls, there's a good chance a big stack raises to steal the dead money, which would limit the field and increase your chances of winning the pot.

[jimotto]

When the three of you bust out on the same hand, does order of finish go by hand rank or by initial stack size?

[gcDanno]

Initial stack size :-(

[JaBlue]

hero calls.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow great reasoning there.

No one has yet addressed my argument about how 66 is a bad hand multiway - I really think this is a fold. That coupled with the fact that a late game EP limper can often mean a big pot which might get you into the money.

[adanthar]

Hero folds quickly, because in a game that isn't full of idiots, what will happen is that the button will also call and it'll be checked down 4 handed, and in a game that is, one win with a random hand will get you in the tournament.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero folds quickly, because in a game that isn't full of idiots, what will happen is that the button will also call and it'll be checked down 4 handed, and in a game that is, one win with a random hand will get you in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yay someone agrees with me!

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
No one has yet addressed my argument about how 66 is a bad hand multiway - I really think this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree because at the very least you'll be up against the limper and the BB. An early limp this late is a dangerous sign, I think (granted, hindsight is 20/20). But you do want a hand that'll play well in a multiway pot because you're practically ensured to have one. Multiway your 66 is only good for set value.

Thinking in a broader sense, though, next time don't get ground down to one big blind.

[gcDanno]

Great advice about not being blinded down so low. Please examine my last 50 hands and let me know where I went wrong... http://www.danina.net/wsop_hands_8377541.txt

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Great advice about not being blinded down so low. Please examine my last 50 hands and let me know where I went wrong...

[/ QUOTE ]

Man your cards were total garbage. I dunno what to tell you.

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t13726)
UTG+1 (t21297)
MP1 (t11280)
MP2 (t29745)
MP3 (t45252)
CO (t59195)
Button (t13621)
SB (t26040)
Hero (t28700)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t1200, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t3600) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t2400</font>, Hero folds, MP1 calls t2400.

Turn: (t8400) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks.

River: (t8400) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks.

Final Pot: t8400

[/ QUOTE ]

Push preflop, unless you have reason to believe that the limper is trapping.

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t50954)
CO (t37670)
Button (t78854)
SB (t13643)
BB (t12370)
UTG (t33040)
Hero (t22325)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t13643</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Final Pot: t14243

[/ QUOTE ]

Push preflop? Tough spot. I 90% fold, but 10% of me wants to push. How close to the bubble? Just throwing it out there.

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t25170)
BB (t51404)
UTG (t14450)
UTG+1 (t38120)
MP1 (t83554)
MP2 (t15343)
CO (t54510)
Hero (t16425)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t1200

[/ QUOTE ]

When your cards were as garbagey as yours, I think I push this because you need chips and you still have FE. Just hope your image is enough to win the blinds!

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t19470)
BB (t25150)
UTG (t30120)
MP1 (t83554)
MP2 (t23893)
CO (t48810)
Hero (t10725)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t10150</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t11050

[/ QUOTE ]

I would rather call here than call with 66 in the OP. Though I'm not a big fan of either play. *shrug*

[tipperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero folds quickly, because in a game that isn't full of idiots, what will happen is that the button will also call and it'll be checked down 4 handed, and in a game that is, one win with a random hand will get you in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yay someone agrees with me!

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, he agrees because he misread the post (I think). Only the top prize wins a seat, so "one win with a random hand" won't do it. 2-13 win a nice chunk of change, but 14th basically wins his money back. There are 15 players left, so hero needs to advance TWO spots to collect any real value. There is a slight chance (I'd guess 10-20%%) that hero can fold himself into 14th, but there's VERY little chance he'll fold his way into 13th.

66 sux, but it's playable. That MP1 is a big stack will discourage LP players from getting involved with marginal stacks. You really must go for it here.

[durron597]

How is 66 playable in a hand that is almost certain to have 3 opponents? (MP, SB, BB) Not to mention the fact that an EP limp here is suspect, especially now that I've looked at the last 50 hands it's very suspect.