Very Strange Hand Party 2k

[Jason Strasser]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $20 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($2711)
UTG+1 ($1907)
UTG+2 ($3011.59)
MP1 ($2242)
MP2 ($937.24)
MP3 ($1876)
CO ($0)
Button ($1858)
Hero ($2717)
BB ($1930)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Hero posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $70</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls $70, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero (poster) calls $60, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($230) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $90</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $180</font>, Hero calls $180, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $450</font>, MP3 calls $270, Hero calls $270.

Turn: ($1580) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero Checks, MP1 bets all in for $1722, MP3 folds, Hero Calls.

Flop and turn both interesting and very debatable. I strongly thought about pushing the flop and folding the turn. My opponent went all in instantly on the turn btw.

-Jason

[chuddo]

jj?

and what range did you put him on when you called.

[NiceCatch]

Why the call on the turn? You don't have odds to chase your flush. Seems like he clearly has a set. What's your read on MP1?

Calls on the flop are fine.

[queball]

[ QUOTE ]
Why the call on the turn? You don't have odds to chase your flush. Seems like he clearly has a set. What's your read on MP1?

why is he not getting the odds to call here??

[thabadguy]

I think the call to 180 was fine, but once it was raised to 450, I like a nice double fisted all-in. Turn is a fold.

[queball]

did the MP1 like to push his draws? was he a bluffer? would he check raise his trip jacks with a flush draw on the board? A lot is dependent on previous plays...maybe he was pushing his flush draw or top pair with the boss kicker?...im leaning towrds AK or AQ and not the set of J's and also the busted flush draw..any thoughts?

[NiceCatch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why the call on the turn? You don't have odds to chase your flush. Seems like he clearly has a set. What's your read on MP1?

[/ QUOTE ]

why is he not getting the odds to call here??

[/ QUOTE ]

?? Poker 101... he has 9 outs to the nut flush, with one card to come, so roughly 4:1 odds. Pot-sized bet means 2:1 to call. And actually both those odds are skewed in the wrong direction (worse than 4:1 to hit, worse than 2:1 to call).

[Jason Strasser]

In your judgement, how often is my pair of aces the best hand here?

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

I thought a set was most likely, but that some sort of pair/draw combo was possible, as was a missed draw or a desperate KK or QQ.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

No read.

AK and AQ seem really impossible to me. I mean, what's he doing? He cant have a draw, and very few players at this stakes will play that flop like that with AK or AQ. AJ, however, is very possible.

-Jason

[queball]

In this position i would say your A is good about 40 percent of the time..it is extremely tought to get away from this hand TPTK and nut flush draw...I would still need to know how the pusher plays, any hints on that? Maybe im way off in my thoughts....I like your AJ scenario

[NiceCatch]

I play Pokerroom 10-20, so not sure how Party plays... but against the average opponent, I'd say he doesn't have the set about 15-20% of the time. If he's a full on tilt-monkey, then yeah, he could have KK or QQ. His flop raises are clearly protection raises. But he could obviously be protecting the set as well.

Either way, not sure how you call the turn there.

[Ulysses]

Flop - I'll often push when it comes around the second time. Having just called, fold on the turn.

[Voltron87]

I don't see how you are ahead on the turn. There were two players betting and reraising on the flop, and now one of them went all in on the turn which looks like they are trying to shut out everyone and protect a hand better than one pair. How often can you possibly be ahead against two raises on the flop? You don't have odds to call if your one pair is not good, so I'd fold.

Not sure about the flop.

[Voltron87]

i read bad.

[NiceCatch]

Why push on the flop, Diablo? It seems like you have nearly zero fold equity, and only the flush outs...

Meta-game reasons? But then couldn't you find a better situation, considering the size of the pot and the action?

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
You would go all in for 2.5K more here when the pot is 500ish? What if hero had 3.5-4K (assume so did everyone else), would you still play this the same way?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, the pot is $1310 when it comes around the second time.

[Voltron87]

oh, nvm then, I thought he was talking about the first time. that might be ok if english was my 2nd language... but its not.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
Why push on the flop, Diablo? It seems like you have nearly zero fold equity, and only the flush outs...

Meta-game reasons? But then couldn't you find a better situation, considering the size of the pot and the action?

[/ QUOTE ]

The money in the pot once it gets kicked up to $450 and called ($1300) makes the push ($2000) worth considering.

It also removes decisionmaking if we hit one of our questionable outs, like the turn A.

Depends how squarely we put 3-better on a set or AA (very unlikely, where's the preflop reraise?). Against anything else we have solid EV.

[queball]

How about a reraise on before the flop to about 210?? Check the flop hoping for a check raise..if no bet then you get a free card...or lead out and see where you are...just a coiuople of suggestions...of course he may as well comoe over the top pre flop then y ou fold. as you are looking at AA or KK...

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
AA (very unlikely, where's the preflop reraise?).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is advanced NL knowledge you are probably not aware of creed, but you are not typically allowed to reraise yourself in games of this size.

[NiceCatch]

Ok, so we all agree that you donked off your chips on the turn. Prove us wrong and tell us he had QQ (in other words, results please).

[Benal]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA (very unlikely, where's the preflop reraise?).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is advanced NL knowledge you are probably not aware of creed, but you are not typically allowed to reraise yourself in games of this size.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

JS - I would strongly consider pushing the flop once it gets back to you. But I fold this turn with your line.

[LuvDemNutz]

I push the flop when it gets back to me the second time around.

Without some sort of sick read on Villain I fold the turn.

[Jason Strasser]

He had AA I river nuts.

I think you are all right. I shoulda pushed flop or folded turn. The numbers just arent right. I dont think it was a horrible play by me, but prolly a losing one.

-Jason

[NiceCatch]

Hmmm... honestly, I think the turn call was a pretty horrible play.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
He had AA I river nuts.

I think you are all right. I shoulda pushed flop or folded turn. The numbers just arent right. I dont think it was a horrible play by me, but prolly a losing one.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

For kicks I decided to datamine the game since a few hours ago....

congrats on being up $13,000 according to me

*cough* luckbox *cough*

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA (very unlikely, where's the preflop reraise?).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is advanced NL knowledge you are probably not aware of creed, but you are not typically allowed to reraise yourself in games of this size.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got lost in the tangle of miniraises and reraises.

So yeah, AA or KK = quite likely.

[sirtimo]

(obligatory dumb question from the low NL player... feel free to flame away)

Jason,
Why is this hand listed as "Very Strange"? It seems very common type of play to see at around the .50/$1 or $1/$2 level.

MP1 opens for 3.5 BB with AA. Gets 2 callers, so he weak-leads the flop and re-raises, but probably didn't expect both players to call. Turns a set and pushes to blow out the flush draw which at least one of you has. You call and suck out like a champ.....

...so I guess to me, it's not interesting, it's almost pedestrian. I'm not trying to flame your play at all (others have already debated the line) just wondering why this hand sticks out in the pantheon of high stakes NL?

regards,
Tim

(Ps- what do you put MP3 on?? QQ?)

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
You call and suck out like a champ.....


[/ QUOTE ]

such a great expression

[Jason Strasser]

Your criticism is acceptable. I posted the hand because it didn't feel right. I do think though that Im not always going to be behind here.

-Jason

[muzungu]

strassa-

Do people take these sorts of flop lines in these games with weak made hands? His weak lead/weak 3-beat line looks like a donkey who thinks his hand is invincible. Whether that means JJ (my read), 99, or AA is debatable, but his play screams "you can't beat me, I am gonna take your $ a little at a time".

Obviously, with such a drawish board this is not the case, leading to the read that he is a donkey who is overvaluing his hand. As such, I'd say that 1) you have no fold equity vs him on a flop push and 2) you aren't winning on the turn.

Once he 3-bets, I am taking one off. If he makes another milking bet and you have odds to call when it gets back to you, obviously do so, but IMO that is your only play here. DO NOT BE TEMPTED BY THE SIREN'S SONG THAT IS THE TURN A!

(well, unless you know the river is gonna be a diamond.)

-muz

[cero_z]

Hi Jason,

Since nobody (I think) has mentioned it, I can see your call on the turn. It's clear to me that you are beat about 100% of the time, since he likely puts you on the nut flush draw, and won't expect you to fold that + Aces. But what's not clear is that you are just drawing to the flush. He could have 2 pair, based on the action so far (in fact we know he had AA, which is one notch below 2 pair on the flop). Most likely, if he has 2 pair, he flopped top two, and in that case you have a lot of outs. I will admit that J9 is not too likely given the pre-flop action, unless MP1 was me (it wasn't). But IMO, a set is also very unlikely. See below.

What's crazy about this hand is that I think you could've won it on the flop. His too-small re-raise to 450 tells me that he was prepared to release the hand, given your cold-call and MP2's min-raise. He actually played the hand pretty great, IMO. See, if he had a set, and was therefore "sure" he had the best hand (or was definitely going to the felt with 99 or 66), he has to raise more than 270 more to shut out a flush draw. His smaller re-raise was actually a "feeler".

The problem for you in all of this is that his hand does look like a monster in the hands of a less-than-great player. How are you supposed to know if he's an expert or just some regular PP denizen? Still, you should've pushed the 2nd time around on the flop, or just re-opened the betting, trying to get them both all-in, for the straight-up math of it, I think. The turn is therefore questionable but not horrible, IMO.

Nice catch.

[The Antagonizer]

I hate the overcall on the flop. Any decent player at these stakes will recognize that as a flush draw, but it's a tough spot position wise to be in. Auto fold on the turn, you're up against JJ or AA here way too much.

[Chris Piekarski]

Looking at the hand it seems that he could very easily have KK or QQ here. You flat-called preflop, you flat-called a raise and then a reraise on the flop..I mean..I assume you don't normally play this passively, so he has to put you on a draw. He could put the other guy on any J or a different draw. So of course when the scary turn comes he'd go all-in with KK or QQ, in addition to the other million hands that beat you. It's one of those situations where the ace is bad enough to scare off any action from KJ no matter what he bets, but he won't get you off your draw unless he pushes. And he wants that pot now.

So, my question is this: What does everyone think about a small bet on the turn for purposes of getting information? Since he would probably push with KK or QQ there if you check, maybe bet $300 or so. If he does push it's an easy fold. There are 12 combinations of KK or QQ that he could have, and 14 combinations of AA, JJ, 99, 66, AJ..the latter are a little more likely so it's maybe 65/35. I think your call on the turn was close, but only because you didn't know where he was at. The information bet will tell you.