Fossilman: Stealing on the bubble

[benfranklin]

ESPN2 showed the WSOP 2004 final table last night, with commentary by Greg Raymer. I found his comments on getting to the final table very interesting, and dead on regarding SnG bubble play.

The field was down to 10 players (all at one table), and they would play that night until one more was eliminated, reaching the "real" final table of nine. This was "THE" bubble of the WSOP.

Raymer started the table of 10 with about 5 million chips, and finished it with 8 million when they got down to the final 9. In his commentary, he said that when they got down to 10, he knew that he had a huge edge for stealing here, and that he intended to do just that. So he just sat there and consciously stole 3 million chips. He knew that virtually everyone else had only one thing on their minds: survival.

The principle is simple; the magnitude of stealing 3 million is breath-taking.

[durron597]

It's almost not surprising that Marcel Luske was the one who Bubbled. He was one of the few that was willing to gamble all his chips with 9 left.

And of course Matt Dean had a big stack because he decided to make that DONK coinflip call against John Murphy with 13 left for nearly all his chips.

[LeVoodoo]

It's the bubble TV/Fame wise, but is it really the bubble?
What's the difference in pay between 10th and 9th?

[A-Baum]

I have a hard time believing that players like Dan Harrington and Al Krux only had survival on their minds. I think that's more of a SNG type mentality. Every one of these guys were in it to win it. Raymer did a great job of stealing 3mil in chips, but I don't think you can chalk it up to playing scared from a couple of the tournament greats.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
And of course Matt Dean had a big stack because he decided to make that DONK coinflip call against John Murphy with 13 left for nearly all his chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dean played poorly once at the final table, but I think it's a little unfair to call his hand with Murphy a DONK move. Give the guy credit for having a set and making a tough call. And keep in mind, that if he had a strong read that Murphy had AK, it's not exactly a coinflip: 57-43

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
It's the bubble TV/Fame wise, but is it really the bubble?
What's the difference in pay between 10th and 9th?

[/ QUOTE ]

The final table bubble is purely psychological (i.e., ego). Finishing in 9th place paid about $470K, 10th about $370K.

[durron597]

They are second and third in chips. Both can easily make the final table since there are a bunch of small stacks left.

[dhende3]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And of course Matt Dean had a big stack because he decided to make that DONK coinflip call against John Murphy with 13 left for nearly all his chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dean played poorly once at the final table, but I think it's a little unfair to call his hand with Murphy a DONK move. Give the guy credit for having a set and making a tough call. And keep in mind, that if he had a strong read that Murphy had AK, it's not exactly a coinflip: 57-43

[/ QUOTE ]


I really hate Dean's call there versus Murphy personally. I think he made this for two reasons.

1) He was obviously light years behind the other players when it came to post-flop play and knew he needed to take a HUGE coin-flip to increase his payout substantially. I am impressed by his balls, however, not an easy call to make for a teacher making 40k a year.

2) I liken this call to a situation in an SnG where there are 4 players left: 2 at T3000 and 2 at T1000. You push UTG with say KQ and the other "sheriff" bigstack somehow feels the urge to call an almost certain coinflip with Ax although this play is -$EV in the long run. For some reason Dean used this backward logic.

[AA suited]

damn it.. missed it again

anyone know when will it be on dvd?

[applejuicekid]

[ QUOTE ]
1) He was obviously light years behind the other players when it came to post-flop play

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know this?

[ QUOTE ]
2) I liken this call to a situation in an SnG where there are 4 players left: 2 at T3000 and 2 at T1000. You push UTG with say KQ and the other "sheriff" bigstack somehow feels the urge to call an almost certain coinflip with Ax although this play is -$EV in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, these two situations are completely different.

[vindikation]

THIS IS REPLAYING IN 1 HOUR!!!!!!!!!! (6:00pm EASTERN/3:00pm PACIFIC on ESPN2)

Of course I am going to miss it because I'm at work, but they are replyaing it again on Sunday at 10pm Pacific time on ESPN2.

[jgunnip]

How does Fossilman's stack NOT fall down? sheesh!

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]
Give the guy credit

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, anybody who waded through that field deserves a lot of credit. Maybe he read TPFAP where it said that if you are outmatched its in your best interest to take any small edge thrown your way.

Andre

[valenzuela]

It makes me mad to see idiots making -ev plays because they want to be on "the real" final table. My classmates think Im lying when I say Im better than some ppl that have been aired playing on ESPN.

edit: Im not suggesting that Im better than any of the final-tablers. But I think I am a better snger than Dean or Anderson.

[jgunnip]

This is the best bit of poker ever aired...




..which is why I hope it's getting crappy ratings

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

1) He was obviously light years behind the other players when it came to post-flop play and knew he needed to take a HUGE coin-flip to increase his payout substantially. I am impressed by his balls, however, not an easy call to make for a teacher making 40k a year.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true - I haven't watched that final table, and while it's really the only evidence we have it still isn't very good for determining such things - then there will be tons of situations where getting his stack in with a 57-43 edge if he thinks he has it is probably not such a bad plan.

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]
And of course Matt Dean had a big stack because he decided to make that DONK coinflip call against John Murphy with 13 left for nearly all his chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bah!

Murphy's move was much, MUCH worse. Dean was 2nd in chips at the time, Murphy was 3rd. Dean makes a strong reraise and you push into him with a hands like AK? With that many chips? Sucks.

Dean knew he was one of the weaker players, (he's said as much on these forums) and he felt like Murphy was pushing with a hand like AK or QQ, but most likely AK. That's a 57% favorite, and he felt like gambling as a slight favorite. Nothing wrong with that, especially when you consider, again, that Dean was a weak postflop player.

[applejuicekid]

[ QUOTE ]
But I think I am a better snger than Dean or Anderson.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a joke right?

I agree with your classmates.

How can you even say that and truly believe it? Why do you think you are a better snger than Dean or Anderson? What plays did they make that were so bad?

Just because you see a NBA player miss an open jump shot doesn't mean you are better than them at HORSE.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Give the guy credit

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, anybody who waded through that field deserves a lot of credit. Maybe he read TPFAP where it said that if you are outmatched its in your best interest to take any small edge thrown your way.

Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe Raymer has been professing just this for years on the very forum we're having this discussion while exchanging high level poker thoughts with this forum's very own Irieguy directly related to risk/reward theory....

Unfortunately there is no way to search and tell...*sigh*

Oh..wait! Dude.....you *can* search the forums and find out exactly that!!!!!

Shibby!

Yugoslav

[valenzuela]

Everyone that has ever played a hand on ESPN is better than me???? bah u suck, Matias anderson is an horrible player who simply got lucky in the WSOP.
1) pro pushes 77
2) anderson calls with AK
3) 8JK82
4) daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!
Note that Im not saying Im better than him at poker, just that I think Im better than him SNGs.( i might be wrong since he could play sngs too) I have a friend who is an awesome poker player but Im better than him with really shallow stacks.
Ure really clueless if u think everyone who has played in ESPN is a poker biitch.

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a hard time believing that players like Dan Harrington and Al Krux only had survival on their minds. I think that's more of a SNG type mentality. Every one of these guys were in it to win it. Raymer did a great job of stealing 3mil in chips, but I don't think you can chalk it up to playing scared from a couple of the tournament greats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg didn't name names, and I'm sure that the two you mentioned weren't playing scared. I just replayed the tape, and what he said was that he was able to build his stack up to $8 million while 10 handed because "...many of these players were playing to make the final table. They wanted to finish in the top 9. They were more worried about going broke 10th then they were about maximising their position and winning the tournament."