easy bubble fold PF with QQ?

[maldini]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t4805)
BB (t900)
UTG (t765)
Button (t7030)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t7030</font>, Hero calls t4705 (All-In), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t12035) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t12035) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t12035) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t12035

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Qs Qc (one pair, queens).
Button has 9h Kh (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Button wins t12035. </font>

am i a moron for calling this? clearly the results are irritating but not really the issue. if my goal is to make as high a ROI as possible. do i fold this every time?

[LeVoodoo]

The amount of times you win this and cruise to first place are worth the odd time you will bust.
[Edit, you won't cruise to first with the bigstack still having 2000, but i still call]

[draw2aflush]

Well good news is you do not seem like a moron.A moron would continue to keep making mistakes and would not strive to become better.To answer your question.Fold everytime.Sucks but utg is short stacked very good chance that he will bust before you.Question is what will happen more often.UTG busting out before you or your QQs holding up.Fold everytime

[jzieg2313]

Maybe its just me but I think you can fold this. You still have plenty of chips to go to war with after the shortys are gone. Plus even if you win this hand he still has 2200 chips lefts and with the blinds at 200 I do not think is an automatic cruise into first place. I have called in the past in situations like this but am tending to play to the more cautious side now.

JZ

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
Plus even if you win this hand he still has 2200 chips lefts and with the blinds at 200 I do not think is an automatic cruise into first place

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're losing when you have 10,000 chips out of the 13,500 on the table and blinds are only at $200 you need serious work on your game.

[Nicok7]

I definitly call here, you are definitly likely to be 2-1 favorite or slight favorite. The big stack is likely to bully you, if it was me in his shoes, I would be pushing with a very wide range of cards, wich funnily enough might not include AA or KK the only two that dominates you. Assuming the structure at pokerstars is similar to Party, play for first!

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Well good news is you do not seem like a moron.A moron would continue to keep making mistakes and would not strive to become better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reason to celebrate. Some random guy doesn't think you're a moron!

Anyways. My gut tells me calling is marginally more +EV than folding. I think you win this hand about 70% of the time (especially if big stack has been aggressive), which puts you in the driver seat to take first. Calling will certainly entail more variance, but I believe you should make it.

[TheMainEvent]

[ QUOTE ]
Question is what will happen more often.UTG busting out before you or your QQs holding up.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be the question if the three top spots paid the same amount. It's more complicated than that.

[draw2aflush]

Hey asswipe (not poster) that was an attempt to be amusing.Don't be so disgruntled.No malice intended

[draw2aflush]

Where do you get 10,000 CHIPS FROM?

[draw2aflush]

I know it is more complicated than that.It would take a novel to write every possible reason but, that is the basic question

[nova]

My take is that due to stack size and current blind situation: 2nd place is very attainable from your standpoint. Why mix it up with the big stack and let the two other fellas who will get blinded out soon move up in the money?

On the other hand: how often will you get a big pair like that 4 handed with a great chance to have a stranglehold on the game. I can't fault the play, but I would consider folding in that situation. I'd have to have seen how the big stack is playing: it's one thing if he will attempt to steal on the smaller stacks, but realizes that you are the biggest hurdle to him winning. The point about payout structure is key as well: if top 3 only make money, and 2nd is greater than 3rd....why not shoot for that and try to gamble your way into first relying on your own solid play from that point on?

If there were several steal attempts by the big stack, why not call. You were the favorite preplop, and a bad card came off.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey asswipe

[/ QUOTE ]

Another failed attempt?

Save your unfunny insults for the "2+2 Comedy Tour" please. It's really not welcome here.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

You are a little more than a 2:1 favorite so calling has +EV, but in a tournament you need to finish ITM. Therefore it is not a good idea to get into confrontations w/ chip leader. It only cost you $100 to fold, you have a lot of money left, and will most likly end up in 2nd or 3rd b/c small stacks will blind out or take each other out... hard to do, but fold...

[TheMainEvent]

[ QUOTE ]
I know it is more complicated than that.It would take a novel to write every possible reason but, that is the basic question

[/ QUOTE ]

My problem with stating it the way you did is that it would imply that folding AA in the same spot would be a good play.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Where do you get 10,000 CHIPS FROM?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you double up off the big stack, you'll have approximately 10K chips.

[draw2aflush]

Are you the godfather of this site?
because you sure act like it
your very swift to speak for everyone
a little humor never hurts
it did stink though ...................

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
You are a little more than a 2:1 favorite so calling has +EV, but in a tournament you need to finish ITM.

[/ QUOTE ]

This quote basically says that ITM is more important than ROI. This is very very wrong.

[draw2aflush]

Well come on fold AAs I don't so because I know I have the best hand preflop.It is not a no brainer that QQs are winning.Grant it is a good chance but being outdrawn is not unlikely and AA will hold up just that little bit more often that you cannot fold that.I would fold KKs also

[draw2aflush]

True your right

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you the godfather of this site?
because you sure act like it
your very swift to speak for everyone
a little humor never hurts
it did stink though ...................

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll have to excuse Kyro...he spends too much time involved in OOT (same applies to Sponger).

The poster who you're clearly thinking of in your above post is citanul...and yes, outside of PVS actually being the godfather, citanul pretty much gets to wack and smack as much as he feels like (he's good friends with baby jesus, after all).

Yugoslav

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you the godfather of this site?
because you sure act like it
your very swift to speak for everyone
a little humor never hurts
it did stink though ...................

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll have to excuse Kyro...he spends too much time involved in OOT (same applies to Sponger).

The poster who you're clearly thinking of in your above post is citanul...and yes, outside of PVS actually being the godfather, citanul pretty much gets to wack and smack as much as he feels like (he's good friends with baby jesus, after all).

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

You compared me to sponger? Dude.

[draw2aflush]

Does anyone think that with 4800 if you fold the QQs the chances if you are a good player you could easily win.at worst a 2nd.So why take the risk in that spot.It is almost a for sure 2nd so I see alot at risk

[Unarmed]

http://www.cyberiapc.com/gallery/albums/userpics/bunny.jpg

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone think that with 4800 if you fold the QQs the chances if you are a good player you could easily win.at worst a 2nd.So why take the risk in that spot.It is almost a for sure 2nd so I see alot at risk

[/ QUOTE ]

It's close, I'll agree. But if you win the hand, you should take first about 90% of the time. I'm assuming big stack has been very loose about his pushing standards, which means you're a heavy favorite over him the majority of the time.

I'd love to see some solid numbers...maybe from Eastbay's program? But my gut tells me calling is slightly more EV with a lot more variance.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you the godfather of this site?
because you sure act like it
your very swift to speak for everyone
a little humor never hurts
it did stink though ...................

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll have to excuse Kyro...he spends too much time involved in OOT (same applies to Sponger).

The poster who you're clearly thinking of in your above post is citanul...and yes, outside of PVS actually being the godfather, citanul pretty much gets to wack and smack as much as he feels like (he's good friends with baby jesus, after all).

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

You compared me to sponger? Dude.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah thats pretty low

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]


You compared me to sponger? Dude.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha...I saw that coming....

You and Sponger's posts can be taken with different grains of salt..... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

But....the 'spending too much time in OOT' certainly applies to Sponger if it applies to you, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Hell, I spend too much time in OOT...I'm also relatively jaded with my posts too....bah! Am *I* becoming Sponger /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

Yugoslav
/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

yeah thats pretty low

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

How's your platonic friend doing? I wrote a late reply to tha thread....I found the situation and relationship interesting....would love to discuss tomorrow while drunk...

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Yugoslav

[Moonsugar]

Interesting question.

This is another close decision, it depends (as always) on the range you put the big stack on.

Let's review the facts:

You have 2nd largest stack. 2 short stacks have very small stacks compared to the large stacks. They have 3-4x BB so are close to desperation but the 3rd highest may just try to fold into the money.

You have 34.4% equity in the prize pool if you fold and BB folds.
You have 35.8% equity in the prize pool if you fold and BB calls and loses.
You have 44% equity in the prize pool if you call and win.
You have 0% equity if you call and lose (and BB folds).

QQ is 80:20 to win v. any 2 cards.

If you call and BB folds your weighted average equity in the pot is 35.2% assuming Big Stack will push with any 2.

If you think that Big Stack will push with a tighter range (if your win % drops even 3% calling is worse than folding) OR there is any chance BB will call you should fold.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


You compared me to sponger? Dude.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha...I saw that coming....

You and Sponger's posts can be taken with different grains of salt..... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

But....the 'spending too much time in OOT' certainly applies to Sponger if it applies to you, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Hell, I spend too much time in OOT...I'm also relatively jaded with my posts too....bah! Am *I* becoming Sponger /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

Yugoslav
/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I do spend my fair share of time in OOT. I don't post that much there though. But I'll crap myself the day I see Sponger post a serious, thought-provoking strategy post or respond to a thread with the sole intention of helping another.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

I do spend my fair share of time in OOT. I don't post that much there though. But I'll crap myself the day I see Sponger post a serious, thought-provoking strategy post or respond to a thread with the sole intention of helping another.

[/ QUOTE ]

*nod*

Yugoslav
Who racks up *another* non-strategy post! Bwahahahhaha....

[johnnybeef]

we made up over the phone at no expense to my pocket book. ill discuss tomorrow.

[kyro]

That beeping noise you hear is warning you that you have 15 seconds left to make your move.

The idea is right, but you don't exactly have all the time in the world to be making complex calculations.

[gasgod]

Using ICM (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html) , your $EV:

Fold -- 34.1% of prize pool
Call/win -- 43.6% of prize pool

To just break even, you would have to be a 34.1/43.6 favorite, or 78.2%. Clearly, you're not even close to that, so it's a clear fold.

Edit: I made the assumption that BB would fold.

GG

[TheMainEvent]

Nice Post. IMO, even big stacks who SEEM to be pushing with any two are sometimes folding hands like 5-high, but certainly NOT Kx or Ax, so I think you usually do worse against his range of hands than you do against any two cards. Sounds like a fold to me.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Using ICM (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html) , your $EV:

Fold -- 34.1% of prize pool
Call/win -- 43.6% of prize pool

To just break even, you would have to be a 34.1/43.6 favorite, or 78.2%. Clearly, you're not even close to that, so it's a clear fold.

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

DAMN!

Although, 43.6% seems awfully low considering the advantage I now have...

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Using ICM (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html) , your $EV:

Fold -- 34.1% of prize pool
Call/win -- 43.6% of prize pool

To just break even, you would have to be a 34.1/43.6 favorite, or 78.2%. Clearly, you're not even close to that, so it's a clear fold.

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

DAMN!

Although, 43.6% seems awfully low considering the advantage I now have...

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that you can only win 50% of prize pool.

GG

[microbet]

Fold.

It is only +$EV if he pushes with literally literally and I repeat literally ANY TWO.

Ok, not literally - the neutral zone is around
[A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,92+,22+] and similar ranges.

If you had KK, it would still be -$EV if he pushed 22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+!!!!!!

It is always a call with AA.

Moral of the story: When you are in 2nd place on the bubble and there is a much much shorter stack, RARELY call pushes from the big stack. If there are two such stacks, even more rarely.

[the_joker]

Rough analysis assuming $10 buy-in.

Assumptions:

If you call and win this hand, you will win the tournament, if you lose you're out.

If you fold you will get second.

Chances of winning this hand I would guess at least 70%.

So you will win $45 70% of the time = $31.

Second place is $27.

So you make about $4 by calling. Of course if you think you can really outplay the big stack and get first without winning this hand, then it could change things...

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Using ICM (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html) , your $EV:

Fold -- 34.1% of prize pool
Call/win -- 43.6% of prize pool

To just break even, you would have to be a 34.1/43.6 favorite, or 78.2%. Clearly, you're not even close to that, so it's a clear fold.

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

DAMN!

Although, 43.6% seems awfully low considering the advantage I now have...

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that you can only win 50% of prize pool.

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that. It's expecting you to win about 85% of the time? OK, I guess I can see that.

[Moonsugar]

Your assumptions are bad. Look at my post in thread above.

[Moonsugar]

You need to take blinds out and give them to the winner in your calcs.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Moral of the story: When you are in 2nd place on the bubble and there is a much much shorter stack, RARELY call pushes from the big stack. If there are two such stacks, even more rarely.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's ironic that I just PM'ed someone this topic -- in analyzing some of my tourney's, I discovered this to be a big leak. It also holds true as far as pushing into the big stack, especially if he's somewhat loose. After adopting this tactic, my ROI has improved greatly.

That said, in this situation I'd be hard-pressed not to call. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[The Yugoslavian]

You ass....I just spent time working this out long hand (I'm at work and don't have access to much fancy shmancy stuff) and pming it to OP...(who requested my input).

I could have just let you do it for me...

Bah!

Yugoslav
Who would call with AA of any suit, /images/graemlins/smile.gif, but nothing else.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to take blinds out and give them to the winner in your calcs.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right.

GG

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
Well good news is you do not seem like a moron.A moron would continue to keep making mistakes and would not strive to become better.To answer your question.Fold everytime.Sucks but utg is short stacked very good chance that he will bust before you.Question is what will happen more often.UTG busting out before you or your QQs holding up.Fold everytime

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious? You're dominating almost all the time, 70/30 in a lot, coin-flip in the rest, and dominated by TWO OTHER HANDS. It's the BUBBLE. Do you seriously just want to fold into third? I'd rather call this, win 70% of the time, and cruise into first.

Please, keep getting your 3rds. I'll take a 70% chance to win 1st or a 30% to bust in 4th any day.

[The Yugoslavian]

Calling here vs. almost all players playing that big stack is not just not a good idea...it's very, very, very bad.

I wasn't going to post on this hand until everyone already made it crystal clear why you must fold here.

What is even more fun about this hand is if you change QQ into KK it's still a fold, /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

Yugoslav

[draw2aflush]

You must be a very weak player if you don't think you could finish 2nd if not 1st even if you fold in that spot.There is 4 players left 2 short stacks probaly busting soon and you want to risk everything against the big stack.Ok go right ahead.I have a hard time believing your win rate is very good

[draw2aflush]

I concur old chap

[DasLeben]

This is a fold, and it's not even close. Here's some math:

His push range:
A2+, K2+, Q2+, J2+: -0.6% EV
22+, A2s+, A3o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs: -3.8% EV
44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+: -4.6% EV
66+, ATs+, AJo+: -5.8% EV

Note that I changed the first range in eastbay's program to prove that if biggie has even one face card, it's already -EV to call here. As Yugo even said, you fold kings here. Call with aces, muck everything else.

DasLeben
Recovering "always play for first" player

[Pepsquad]

This is also one of the rare times I'll Fold and Show. Chances are, the big stack doesn't understand why you "properly" folded this and might use it as an invitation to continue attacking you after the bubble pops since apparently you only call pushes with the absolute nuts pre-flop.

[draw2aflush]

post that a few times OK!!!!!!! so i do not continue to get berated.I have posted 7 or 8 times since this opened.All along saying no doubt fold.It is amusing to see how many players think I suck for saying that though.Also said fold KKs.

[the_joker]

Yes indeed. I actually just got eastbay's program today and analyzed this hand properly. As others have said, only call with AA.

[draw2aflush]

friendly advice for u saint even though u seem like a dick i will give you the benifit of the doubt.read all posts before berating.open your mind last time otherwise keep losing

[adanthar]

The only thing I will say is that if you fold in a similar situation vs. me or anyone else decent, you had best be -EV against any two.

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing I will say is that if you fold in a similar situation vs. me or anyone else decent, you had best be -EV against any two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, I knew someone would ask that. I meant to put that in my last post as a finishing point. Here's the math for that:

Pushing range:
Any two: +0.8% EV

So yes, if biggie is pushing any two, it's +EV, but not by a ton. If I know that biggie is pushing any two, then yes, it is a call. But against a standard donk, no. Fold every time.

I'd like to also add that in this case, you muck everything except for AA-QQ.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing I will say is that if you fold in a similar situation vs. me or anyone else decent, you had best be -EV against any two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Duh.... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. Unless you know that I know you're pushing vs. me...then perhaps not...or ....maybe....bah.....meta-game implosion nearing...... *KABLOOOEY*!

Yugoslav
PS Look at my damn $215 hand!!!
PPS Nevermind...you did....you r0xxor!

[microbet]

You push with ANY two here as big stack? BB's calling range shouldn't be too tight. If it isn't, and SB has a very tight range, pushing with 72o or 32o or such is slightly -$EV. If you have a donk in SB who might call with 88, you are losing a lot of $EV by pushing with a trash hand.

I'm not saying you should be tight here, but maybe 96o or something.