AK suited on the bubble

[Jim Mogal]

This was in a $50 buy in tourney at Pokerstars. No Limit Holdem....87 entries paying 9 places.

1st place pays $1305 (30%) 2nd pays $870 (20%) 3rd $522 (12%) and so on down to 9th place $152.25 (3.5%)

Ten Players left at 2 tables. I have $16,582 (Average stack at this point is $13,050) I am in 4th position overall and at my table the other players are A with 29,535 -- B with $7321 -- C with 2761 -- and D with $6050

At this stage of the tournament there is $75 ante and the blinds are $600 and $1200 ....and we are playing hand to hand between the two tables

I am on the button with A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif .

Player A posts the small blind of 600, B posts the big blind of 1200, C and D fold to me on the button....I make my standard raise of 4 times the big blind and bet 4800

Player A (the chip leader) raises it another 3600

I have been sitting on this players right for a while and all I know about him is that he is not agressive and I have never seen him raise to try and "pick up" the blinds.

I put him on one of the following hands , either a pair of any size, or AK or AQ or AJ



I have only two options here...I can call leaving myself $8107 and see the flop....or raise all in.

What should I have done /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

[Greg (FossilMan)]

This is one of those spots where I would maybe make a different raise.

I'm definitely not folding AKs here. WAY too strong to do that.

And it's nowhere near strong enough to just call either. Can't give short-stack in BB a free flop. No way.

If you're willing to fold to a reraise from the SB, then make a minimum raise of 2400. If you're going to play, raise all-in instead. Last thing you need is for him to try and resteal with JTs or the like, and put you to a tough decision. You also want him to fold all his small and medium pairs. Of course, he isn't folding AA or KK, and probably not QQ, JJ either. However, he won't have those very often at all, less than 2% of the time.

Unfortunately, the standard raise to 3x or 4x is an awkward amount. If he reraises, it's your whole stack, leaving you no play. If he calls, a bet by you or him on the flop is also all-in or close to it. What to do if he calls preflop, and then bets out on the flop of Q32? You could easily still have the best hand, but you'll never know unless you call and see. And that could be a HUGE mistake.

Especially online, where there are no tells, it sometimes is worth it to simplify your decisions.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[King_J]

"Of course, he isn't folding AA or KK, and probably not QQ, JJ either. However, he won't have those very often at all, less than 2% of the time."

He will have one of these hands much more often than 2%.

On the hand I would defintely have raised all-in. AKs is a monster and its not a catastophe to face JJ, QQ or even KK. If he have lets say pocket 8´s its a good chance that he will fold. I would just move in and hoep that he folds.

[Guy McSucker]

I believe Greg was advocating raising all-in as the first move, because you don't want to play guessing games if you raise 4xblind and get reraised.

In that case, your big-stacked opponent will indeed be holding JJ-AA less that 2% of the time.

Obviously the %age for these hands goes up once you raise and are reraised.

Guy.

[Ed Miller]

He will have one of these hands much more often than 2%.

There are 3 ways to have AA and KK and 6 ways to have QQ or JJ. Thus, there are 18 such hands out of 1225 possible hands or 1.5% of the time.

[King_J]

Sorry if I missunderstood the post. I meant way over 2% AFTER his reraise.

[Jim Mogal]

Thanks for all the responses.

What Greg said first was the most important piece for me and that is that my "standard raise" of four times the big blind was unnecessary and the same result could have been achieved by a small raise of twice the big blind.

If both blinds have garbage than ANY raise will drop them so why put in 2400 when 1200 would do the same job.

It's the most important lesson I learned here. Every chip is a precious comodity in a tournament and in the heat of battle I forgot this and caused myself some grief.

To reiterate Greg's point...I can't just call and give the big blind a free ride so my initial options were to make a small raise (the minimum raise of twice the big blind) or go all in.

After my blunder of betting 4800 I was then put to a difficult decision when the small blind raised. I figured that he was more likely not to have a pair and even if he did I was just a small dog so I reraised him all in.

He had a pair of eights and he called ( and I think he was correct to call) and I went out on the bubble.

If I have made the smaller raise of just 1200...I would have hand a lot more options...I could have decided to give up if reraised or just call and see the flop if it was a small raise.

For that matter, since my standard raise had been 4 times the big blind for quite some time, he may have been suspicious if I made the smaller raise and just flat called me himself (Which is what I would have done in his positon with a pair of eights)

And in that scenario we probably would have checked down to the river since the flop was Q 5 3 rainbow followed by a J and a 7

He probably would not have even bet the eights with an overcard showing on the flop and being out of position.

I think I learned a valuable lesson..Thanks to all

Good Luck

Jim Mogal