Party 200+15 I call off all my stack with A9o in level 7

[Eihli]

Table Table 12084 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: cbgann (4300)
Seat 5: LokTakWah (2160)
Seat 9: Dybenko (2240)
Seat 10: TRAYCE (1300)
cbgann posts small blind (200)
LokTakWah posts big blind (400)
Dealt to LokTakWah [ 9s, Ad ]
Dybenko folds.
TRAYCE folds.
cbgann raises (1500) to 1700
LokTakWah raises (1760) to 2160
LokTakWah is all-In.
cbgann calls (460)

This is just something I found a little interesting after looking over michw's post. Almost the same situation, except bigger blinds in relation to stacks, which would encourage looser play right? So you would think a call would be more right in this case than in michw's. But, I can not put the SB on any range of hands that would make this call +EV according to snganalyzer.

[citanul]

this play is the exact opposite of proper bubble play.

it's painful to see.

citanul

[Eihli]

I know /images/graemlins/frown.gif
I'm ashamed it took me this long to discover something like this.

[treeofwisdom7]

heh.. i usually would push here too ...

maybe this is a leak? is this an easy fold?

[Eihli]

Big time easy fold from what I can see.

[1C5]

Save that play for AK or better.

[Voltron87]

this is what i love about this forum. everyone comes in and just says "no its horrible" or "simple easy push", and doesn't explain anything, and people who don't understand the hand learn nothing.

fold.

[Gramps]

If I had reliable information that the big stack was pushing any two (or very close to it), I would probably call. But as everything else, it depends on how the SB has played to this point/how he's played in a similar situation the other times you've played SNGs with him, etc.

Even if he's raising the top 1/2 of his hands, calling really isn't that bad of a play IMO when you crunch all the numbers (which I haven't done, I don't like backing up what I say). It probably becomes a clear fold, but not by ton. By no means does folding ensure you a top-3 finish, you'll still end up 4th a decent % of the time, even with the 1300 short stack in the BB next hand. And what's likely to happen is that by folding and "playing safe," you'll continue to get chipped down and < your chances for 1st (and to some extent 2nd).

Of course, I don't want people pushing on my BB, so take the above calling advice at your own risk. BUHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

[treeofwisdom7]

oh $hit i just realized my biggest leak im calling down against raisers with hands that i would push if i was the raiser. i should be calling down with solid hands and still pushing with weak ones..

i just had one of those things .. an ephifiny all $hit however you spell it.

my roi is gonna shoot up now..

thanks for the non help/ help.

[Voltron87]

you can only call this if you are sure big stack is pushing any 2 here and if you win everyone else sucks enough that you can use a 4000 chip stack to coast to 6-7K chips and set up for a win.

otherwise, a9 is not a very strong hand here and with the stacks like they are you shouldnt be calling here, since you dont want to bust in 4th here, because a9 doesnt stack up well against hands like KJ, any pair, and coinflips or 55/45s arent +EV here.

[Ogre]

[ QUOTE ]
oh $hit i just realized my biggest leak im calling down against raisers with hands that i would push if i was the raiser. i should be calling down with solid hands and still pushing with weak ones..

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone here should know the gap concept by now

[jeffraider]

I'd fold this easily because you're not in any more jeopardy than the other two non-bigstacks, and the 1760 you've got left is more than enough to keep working with on the bubble. I'd need AQ/JJ or better to consider calling here and I wouldn't even like calling with AQ too much, but I might do it.

[treeofwisdom7]

i dont understand why its called the gap concept but i do understand it.

[jeffraider]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont understand why its called the gap concept but i do understand it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there is a Gap between the hands you'll raise with and the hands you'll call with. Read Sklansky's Tournament Poker for Advanced Players for a better explanation.

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i dont understand why its called the gap concept but i do understand it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there is a Gap between the hands you'll raise with and the hands you'll call with. Read Sklansky's Tournament Poker for Advanced Players for a better explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

ive read it .. i just think we should come up with a better word than "GAP"

[jeffraider]

Gash?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
If I had reliable information that the big stack was pushing any two (or very close to it), I would probably call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do believe this is a mistake unless you factor in table image considerations...

If your A9 was suited *and* you knew SB pushed *any two* (not just most two)....it would be ~breakeven...and still a fold IMO.

I do not call here unless my brain isn't working.

Yugoslav

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Table Table 12084 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: cbgann (4300)
Seat 5: LokTakWah (2160)
Seat 9: Dybenko (2240)
Seat 10: TRAYCE (1300)
cbgann posts small blind (200)
LokTakWah posts big blind (400)
Dealt to LokTakWah [ 9s, Ad ]
Dybenko folds.
TRAYCE folds.
cbgann raises (1500) to 1700
LokTakWah raises (1760) to 2160
LokTakWah is all-In.
cbgann calls (460)

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I do believe this is a mistake unless you factor in table image considerations...

If your A9 was suited *and* you knew SB pushed *any two* (not just most two)....it would be ~breakeven...and still a fold IMO.

I do not call here unless my brain isn't working.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, here's some rough numbers operating under the assumption that the big stack has not looked at his cards (is pushing any two):

A9o wins about 60.8% of the time against a "truly random hand." So...39.2% of the time you get zip-zero, and 60.8% of the time you get ___ % of the prize pool.

The 60.8% of the time you win, you have 4,520 chips, and other other 3 players are at 2,140, 2,040, and 1300. Blinds are 200/400, it's the bubble still, and you have some stealing edge (though short stack in BB so bubble may be short-lived before you can take advantage, but if he does play safe, you'll be able to rape the table of its blinds).

What % of the prize pool will you win on average? ICM says 35.1%. Don't know if that takes into account the ability to rape blinds if the short stacks decides to play not to lose (or what the heck else it takes/doesn't take into account). (.608)(.351) = 21.34%

If you fold, the chip stacks become 1,760 for you, 1,300 for shorty, and 2,040 for the ex-SB (who has two hands before in blinds). If you pay you're SB, you're down to 1,560. If BB decides to play safe (fold his BB to push), you may get chipped down significantly playing defense. If he steals once/wins a hand, you have no edge on the shorty.

What % of the time will you finish 4th by folding? Even though you have an edge on shorty (who will finish 4th the highest % of the time), the 2,040 stack has an edge on you and you're 1,740 with 200 in the SB (and him acting right before you, which means he can rape you when folded to him in the SB so long as the shorty is still alive and "shortier" than your stack). ICM gives you a prize pool equity of 17.6% (though it gives the same $EV for the shorter stack, that's not right). Still, it's not like you're in great shape by folding.

Of course, one can tweak numbers and who knows what finsih distribution would be likely given the different scenarios. The gist of my argument is that the statement "calling is clearly wrong" is incorrect. There are times on the bubble when it's correct to call with a good-not-great hand against the big stack, even when you have FE/there is a shorter stack. It all depends, depends, depends, there's no hard-and-fast-rule guiding one's action in bubble play...except that sticking to hard-and-fast-rules is not the way to go.

[Eihli]

Even if he pushes any 2, it's -EV according to snganalyzer.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
This is just something I found a little interesting after looking over michw's post

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know michw?

[Eihli]

What do you mean? He was the poster of a topic earlier about calling an allin from the SB with A9o, but with smaller blinds.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
There are times on the bubble when it's correct to call with a good-not-great hand against the big stack, even when you have FE/there is a shorter stack. It all depends, depends, depends, there's no hard-and-fast-rule guiding one's action in bubble play...except that sticking to hard-and-fast-rules is not the way to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes....you're right in a very general way. But I don't think that this situation is the time and/or place to make a play you know to be immediately -$EV.

You are like 100x the STT player that I currently am though, so...meh, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he pushes any 2, it's -EV according to snganalyzer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read Gramps' post?

He realizes this is the immediate case. I think his main wonder is if there are other considerations that could turn this into a call.

I don't think one could construct a feasable situation that would convince me a call here is best.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

I think it's a pretty easy fold. Simply put, when someone is signifigantly lower than you on chips, you USUALLY don't gamble when you will be eliminated about 40% of the time.

[Eihli]

Yeah, the considerations that I see that aren't read related are:
1. Size of the shortstack and his position in relation to the blinds
2. My position in relation to the blinds.

The shorter the short stack and the closer he is to the blinds, I should be more apt to fold. I didn't realize how short stacked he had to be for that though, I would have thought he was there at 1.3k and in the blind in 2 hands.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Simply put, when someone is signifigantly lower than you on chips, you USUALLY don't gamble when you will be eliminated about 40% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I'm with you there.

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a pretty easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmmm. I see your point with your numbers, assumptions, and analysis, but I don't quite buy it (at least when you tweak a variable and assume a truly random hand).

In "real life," I agree that a high % of the time a fold would be correct, b/c you can't necessarily put the big stack on a random hand or something close. However, there are players who I've played against who I would put on close to a 100% pushing range here, and I believe in that case, given all the variables present, a call is either correct or very close to correct.

If I knew for absolute certain that the big stack was pushing a random hand (i.e. live game and he pushed without looking at his cards), I believe a call is +$EV. But I already laid that out in a bunch of paragraphs. And I still think it's pretty close, the ICM numbers didn't seem the most reliable.

I think people who say it's a "clear fold" off-hand are missing the boat in one respect - certainly there are "general rules" in SNG play that are helpful guides (i.e. don't call the big stack with a good-not-great hand when you have FE and there's a shorter stack who's likely to have to make a stand first), but sometimes all the variables add up to the exception to the general rule being correct, and being able recognize the exceptions is an important skill that can separate one from the pack of "solid SNG formula" players (without getting too big a case of FPS of course, etc.)

Once in a while you have to do the (very rough) math and logic to see whether a particular situation is one of those exceptions, or how much you would have to tweak the variables (and what variables you tweak) to cross the threshhold from general rule to exception. It's a healthy exercise and can reveal misconceptions people have about what the right play in a situation really is $EV-wise.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
You are like 100x the STT player that I currently am though, so...meh, .


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I was only 1/4 (100/400) of the STT player you were over Memorial Day weekend...

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are like 100x the STT player that I currently am though, so...meh, .


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I was only 1/4 (100/400) of the STT player you were over Memorial Day weekend...

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn...if only I would just move up to where the big boys play..I'd pwn the Empire leaderboard!

BWahahahahha!

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Yugoslav

[curtains]

Actually, I was only 1/4 (100/400) of the STT player you were over Memorial Day weekend...

[/ QUOTE ]


When I say it's an easy fold I don't mean that the expectancy between calling and folding is way way off, but I know that I would fold here every time, and I believe I will make more money playing like this in this exact situation. The difference in immediate EV by calling here is just too large for me to try to make an alternate play. (.7% which is a ridiculous amount once you are on the bubble and the blinds are high, assuming you trust eastbay's program)