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tonytrin
05-31-2005, 04:37 PM
I'm going with the over 9 in the Jays @ Mariners game:

Mr. Gaudin is suspect making his last big league start in June of '04, and Ryan Franklin has had three lousy starts in a row:

Pick courtesy of Bookie's Nightmare (http://www.geocities.com/bookiesnightmare)
craig r
05-31-2005, 10:13 PM
why don't you take some of that money you are making and spend the $10 on getting a domain name and leaving geocities??

craig
tonytrin
06-01-2005, 12:45 PM
I've got no complaints with geocities right now.

With that being said our play of the day is:
Atl (-1.5) +110
Armas really has not been sharp this season. Look for Smoltz to be the stopper.

Current Win Streak: 1
mrbaseball
06-01-2005, 01:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Atl (-1.5) +110


[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck! This play (to me) appears to have absolutley no value. Adjusting Braves to runline giving the runs their record is 22-29 (43%) and giving Washinton the runs they adjust to 33-19 (63%).

So you get +110 that something that has happened 43% will happen more than something that has happened 63% of the time? In addition in Smoltz starts Atlanta is only 4-7 and 3 of of those 4 wins were one runners. So when Smoltz has started this year the Braves have covered the runline once in eleven tries.

I think I'll stay away from this one!
tonytrin
06-01-2005, 02:47 PM
Now you are more than welcome to your opinion, but I'm looking at the fact that Smoltz's career ERA against Mon/Was is 2.34, and he historically fares better at night than during day games.

Armas has walked more hitters than he has struck out this year, which is a terrifying thing for a pitcher to do. The Braves hit the ball hard against him last year, and he is less healthy now.

I also have to admit, I love laying the -1.5 on road teams because you you are guaranteed nine innings worth of atbats.

Maybe I'm way off on this one, but I'm sticking with the play.
mrbaseball
06-01-2005, 04:39 PM
I look at baseball betting mathematically. The moneyline is nothing more than an arithmetic problem. And I don't think the numbers add up for you here at all. Could come in but you are getting a horrendously bad price in my opinion.

At what price do you take the other side? It isn't about picking winners it's about getting an edge to the line and I don't think you are getting any edge here at all.