Level 4 ($33) - OE draw - Allin?

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t1662)
MP2 (t844)
CO (t1830)
Button (t394)
SB (t1195)
Hero (t830)
UTG (t1245)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t100, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t300) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero pushes...

Thoughts?

[Bigwig]

Eh, it's not 'bad.' But I'm probably not leading out all-in here. I'd rather check/raise a smallish bet all-in. Or bluff with a smaller bet. Or wait for a better spot. Me no like the paired board.

EDIT--About the paired board. It isn't necessarily that you're facing the 'full house.' It's that on paired boards a lot of the hands you might bluff out of the pot are less afraid when you shove 730 chips into a 300 pot. They're not buying that you have an 8, and a bunch of people will call with 55 and and A9. Crap like that.

[spentrent]

Nice play. I don't think you even need a draw to do it if you've been playing relatively tight so far -- it's a safe board that probably hit no one. You're telling MP1 "you better have a T or a PP here to call."

If you are in MP1's spot, what do you think Hero's bet means?

[chisness]

I'd think his bet means he has something like TJ. I think this bet works well because if they don't have a T or 8 I doubt they're calling, and if they do, you've got a fine shot. If they do call with something like 55 as the above poster suggested, then you're still in fine shape.

[Scuba Chuck]

Bigwig, while I agree that this allin bet smells fishy, I couldn't think of a better line. IMO, any sized bet essentially commits me to this pot. I thought about betting a smaller amount like t100. But I didn't want one of the following two things to happen.

A) reraise allin
B) call by the flush draw.

Anyway, in the end, I was curious what you thought a percentage of folds I'll get here?

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Bigwig, while I agree that this allin bet smells fishy, I couldn't think of a better line. IMO, any sized bet essentially commits me to this pot. I thought about betting a smaller amount like t100. But I didn't want one of the following two things to happen.

A) reraise allin
B) call by the flush draw.

Anyway, in the end, I was curious what you thought a percentage of folds I'll get here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure. I think it's extremely difficult to estimate the probability that you'll get both to fold, especially with a SB in the hand. It's just difficult to guess what most of the yucks limp with--even at this level.

I think pushing is okay. I may or may not do it, depending on my feel for that particular game, but I lean toward 'no.'

[valenzuela]

I love it, ure oponents fold enough to make it profitable, im sure u can make a calling range up.
Btw i see ur back at the 33s...

[valenzuela]

ure investing $730 for a $300 profit.
The play is automaticly profitable if they fold 75% of the time( im calculating cheap ICM).
SB: Any 2, could perfectly be slowplaying something.
MP: u should know better than me but I will guess...KT+,QJ+,any ace, any pair. It would realyy surprise me to see a limp with K8, but it could happen. I think an eight is unlikely. A ten more likely leaving u with 11 outs.

Somebody should have an 8( randomly) 8% of the time. And a T 12% of the time, however pocket pairs are the weak spot.MP could pefectly have a PP, however anything under 77 isnt sooo terrible. Agh...this isnt so easy as I expect.
Still I push.