EarlOfSandwich
05-31-2005, 04:06 PM
I just read Jason's post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1987834&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1&vc=1) with his overall tournament strategy, and ended up writing my own thoughts based on some very limited experience. If any of you guys have comments, corrections, or additions, I'd be most grateful.
I've only played perhaps a dozen tourneys since dipping my toe in the water a few weeks ago, but I've had the good fortune to play pretty deep in several.
My overall feeling for the whole thing is that there's an almost zen-like ebb and flow to the play. You're always gliding up or down, and usually zig-zagging between the two. You're the big stack with 40 players left, but you've lost a chunk 5 minutes later and two guys have built to twice your stack.
You don't want to try to *deny* the ebb-and-flow of the play. It's going to happen, and you can't possibly know if you'll be ebbing or flowing at any given time. What you do is use your tactics to *influence* the trajectory, knowing that they can't *control* the trajectory. That way, you're psychologically prepared for medium and big reversals, whether up or down. You're committed to playing whatever stack ends up sitting in front of you and whatever situation you find yourself in. You know these things ebb and flow.
What you need to ask yourself, at any given time, and when thinking about the tournament ahead of time, is what tactics have the greatest positive influence over your trajectory in a tournament.
From my limited experience, I see the following:
1. Early on, there's a whole lot of way-too-loose and/or way-too-aggressive players. Your primary opportunities come from getting into a hand cheap, getting out if you miss, and hammering them on those one or two key occasions when you hit. You should see flops cheaply, aim for big hands, cross your fingers and hope you hit. You can also play premium hands aggressively, especially if there's a raise (or a lot of limpers) ahead of you.
There may be ways of making chip moves at some of of the pots post-flop, but that's a tricky business that I don't try much. I don't think pre-flop moves -- blind-stealing or reraising (without a premium holding) work well. They aren't your best opportunity to "influence the trajectory" in the positive direction.
2. When you reach level 4 (25/50), things get tricky. The blinds aren't big enough to steal, but it's hard to do a lot of limping to catch big hands. I have a tendency to "ebb" at this stage, and have no strategies other than the simple ones (getting a premium hand, or playing pocket pairs for set value).
3. At levels 5 and beyond, it's surprising how often I ebb or flow my way into a small/vulnerable stack relative to the blinds. I land at 12-15BB an amazing amount of times, and I suspect knowing how to play that stack is critical to tournament poker (with the online structure, at least). The blinds just have a way of catching up to you, even with 30-40BB.
One key consideration is not to allow yourself to lose fold equity. Falling from 12BB to 5BB is deadly. In a pinch, I seem to be able to recover from 7 or 8BB, as there are often people at your table who have that amount or less (and it sometimes constitutes a significant portion of the larger stacks).
If you have 7 or 8BB, a desperation move is better than letting the blinds hit you. You aim for a spot where it seems less obvious -- e.g., you're not under the gun, with the blinds about to hit you, perhaps you've got one or two limpers, to sweeten the pot, the limpers aren't the big stacks, who might look you up just for the heck of it.
Here are some other moves:
1. The limped pot. You're in late position with one or two limpers ahead of you. You haven't pegged any of them for the type who would limp with premium cards. If they really are "betting their weakness" -- e.g., limping with playable but not great hands -- then the pot is very close to free money, unless one of them happens to be tough enough to call you.
2. The min-raise. A lot of people seem to put in min-raises for double the BB, especially late in a tournament where 3x raises seem so expensive. Again, someone *might* do that with a premium holding, but often it means they have good cards that they *think* might be the best, but are waiting for someone else to suggest otherwise. In other words, the guy in MP with KQ or A9 *thinks* the pot should be his, but is more than willing to back off to a 10BB all-in.
3. The blind play-back. Sometimes being in the blinds is the best place to make your big plays, especially if you've pegged the big stealers at your table. It's a great chance to resteal several BB, instead of just the 1.5 you get from the normal blinds (or 2.5 with a limper). One pop-back also tends to send the bully wimpering off into the corner -- if he folds his steal-raise, he tends not to see you as a target in the future.
4. The good read. I'm not very good at this at all, but occasionally I realize that some players have betting patterns, and, for some, a min-raise is definitely weakness. If you can nail that down, it's close to free money. Take it.
5. Patience. I think this is actually a very important strategy. I've noticed in the late going for a $30 Party tournament that players are often too timid, in which case you can use the above aggressive strategies. However, in the $100 tourney I played yesterday, there were an awful lot of movers and shakers. That message about being aggressive seems to have gotten through to these guys.
With that much shooting going on, waiting to play back with a real hand can be a great strategy. Basically, you scrape by, when you must, with that very occasional steal that you absolutley need. And then you find yourself, as I did yesterday, at the final two tables (13 players left) with a 17K stack (which was 11BB), and some guy in mid-position with $20K bets 5K into you. I had to think about that one for a moment, because 5K was such an odd number (steals didn't go for more than 4K, at this point). But I'm holding AKo, and I think there's a very good chance that some form of over-aggression is going on.
He called with KQ, and hit his 3-outer. But I realized what a great play this was -- a huge favorite to take me into the final table with a decent stack. It was very close to money in the bank (but not close enough, unfortunately).
Of course, there are a bunch of other strategies for dealing with the "ebb and flow". But the basic feel is that you're pushing against that flow, without really controlling it. You should be ready psychologically for it to do anything to you it wants to, and adjust to it wherever it happens to put you. You also shouldn't "personalize" your stack -- you're not as good as your stack size, you're as good as you're able to play with the stack you have.
I've only played perhaps a dozen tourneys since dipping my toe in the water a few weeks ago, but I've had the good fortune to play pretty deep in several.
My overall feeling for the whole thing is that there's an almost zen-like ebb and flow to the play. You're always gliding up or down, and usually zig-zagging between the two. You're the big stack with 40 players left, but you've lost a chunk 5 minutes later and two guys have built to twice your stack.
You don't want to try to *deny* the ebb-and-flow of the play. It's going to happen, and you can't possibly know if you'll be ebbing or flowing at any given time. What you do is use your tactics to *influence* the trajectory, knowing that they can't *control* the trajectory. That way, you're psychologically prepared for medium and big reversals, whether up or down. You're committed to playing whatever stack ends up sitting in front of you and whatever situation you find yourself in. You know these things ebb and flow.
What you need to ask yourself, at any given time, and when thinking about the tournament ahead of time, is what tactics have the greatest positive influence over your trajectory in a tournament.
From my limited experience, I see the following:
1. Early on, there's a whole lot of way-too-loose and/or way-too-aggressive players. Your primary opportunities come from getting into a hand cheap, getting out if you miss, and hammering them on those one or two key occasions when you hit. You should see flops cheaply, aim for big hands, cross your fingers and hope you hit. You can also play premium hands aggressively, especially if there's a raise (or a lot of limpers) ahead of you.
There may be ways of making chip moves at some of of the pots post-flop, but that's a tricky business that I don't try much. I don't think pre-flop moves -- blind-stealing or reraising (without a premium holding) work well. They aren't your best opportunity to "influence the trajectory" in the positive direction.
2. When you reach level 4 (25/50), things get tricky. The blinds aren't big enough to steal, but it's hard to do a lot of limping to catch big hands. I have a tendency to "ebb" at this stage, and have no strategies other than the simple ones (getting a premium hand, or playing pocket pairs for set value).
3. At levels 5 and beyond, it's surprising how often I ebb or flow my way into a small/vulnerable stack relative to the blinds. I land at 12-15BB an amazing amount of times, and I suspect knowing how to play that stack is critical to tournament poker (with the online structure, at least). The blinds just have a way of catching up to you, even with 30-40BB.
One key consideration is not to allow yourself to lose fold equity. Falling from 12BB to 5BB is deadly. In a pinch, I seem to be able to recover from 7 or 8BB, as there are often people at your table who have that amount or less (and it sometimes constitutes a significant portion of the larger stacks).
If you have 7 or 8BB, a desperation move is better than letting the blinds hit you. You aim for a spot where it seems less obvious -- e.g., you're not under the gun, with the blinds about to hit you, perhaps you've got one or two limpers, to sweeten the pot, the limpers aren't the big stacks, who might look you up just for the heck of it.
Here are some other moves:
1. The limped pot. You're in late position with one or two limpers ahead of you. You haven't pegged any of them for the type who would limp with premium cards. If they really are "betting their weakness" -- e.g., limping with playable but not great hands -- then the pot is very close to free money, unless one of them happens to be tough enough to call you.
2. The min-raise. A lot of people seem to put in min-raises for double the BB, especially late in a tournament where 3x raises seem so expensive. Again, someone *might* do that with a premium holding, but often it means they have good cards that they *think* might be the best, but are waiting for someone else to suggest otherwise. In other words, the guy in MP with KQ or A9 *thinks* the pot should be his, but is more than willing to back off to a 10BB all-in.
3. The blind play-back. Sometimes being in the blinds is the best place to make your big plays, especially if you've pegged the big stealers at your table. It's a great chance to resteal several BB, instead of just the 1.5 you get from the normal blinds (or 2.5 with a limper). One pop-back also tends to send the bully wimpering off into the corner -- if he folds his steal-raise, he tends not to see you as a target in the future.
4. The good read. I'm not very good at this at all, but occasionally I realize that some players have betting patterns, and, for some, a min-raise is definitely weakness. If you can nail that down, it's close to free money. Take it.
5. Patience. I think this is actually a very important strategy. I've noticed in the late going for a $30 Party tournament that players are often too timid, in which case you can use the above aggressive strategies. However, in the $100 tourney I played yesterday, there were an awful lot of movers and shakers. That message about being aggressive seems to have gotten through to these guys.
With that much shooting going on, waiting to play back with a real hand can be a great strategy. Basically, you scrape by, when you must, with that very occasional steal that you absolutley need. And then you find yourself, as I did yesterday, at the final two tables (13 players left) with a 17K stack (which was 11BB), and some guy in mid-position with $20K bets 5K into you. I had to think about that one for a moment, because 5K was such an odd number (steals didn't go for more than 4K, at this point). But I'm holding AKo, and I think there's a very good chance that some form of over-aggression is going on.
He called with KQ, and hit his 3-outer. But I realized what a great play this was -- a huge favorite to take me into the final table with a decent stack. It was very close to money in the bank (but not close enough, unfortunately).
Of course, there are a bunch of other strategies for dealing with the "ebb and flow". But the basic feel is that you're pushing against that flow, without really controlling it. You should be ready psychologically for it to do anything to you it wants to, and adjust to it wherever it happens to put you. You also shouldn't "personalize" your stack -- you're not as good as your stack size, you're as good as you're able to play with the stack you have.