Party 100+9 (whats your line on this tough draw)

[A_PLUS]

Early in MTT. I have a had a great run of cards, and have 1865$ at the 10/20 level. My image is pretty Laggy, although I have only shown premium hands,I have been in a few large pots.

Villan is in MP, I am MP+1. He has been very active. My last hand with him, he pushed on the turn into a smallish pot.

MP Calls [20]
Hero raises to [100] Ad Kh
BB calls [80]

Flop (310) Td Qd 8d

MP bets 375....

Whats your line?

[bestcellar]

I couldn't get all my chips in fast enough. Unless he has a set, you are a huge favorite and may even take the pot down. If he calls, you have something like 20 outs

[Lloyd]

Easy push for me.

[A_PLUS]

This wasn't necessarily my play, but something that I was discussing with a friend afterwards.

If I am Villan, and I have a set, 2 pair, TPTK. Doesnt a push from another large stack look like a draw? Wouldnt a smooth call look more like a made hand? I think maybe the call-push turn may have the most FE against a made hand (non flush)

[A_PLUS]

I was more than willing to get all of my chips in at this stage, I figured I was probably close to 50/50. Im not saying pushing was a bad play, but do you think it was the best? If so, could you expalin why you like it better than other options?

[blockafor]

What's his stack?

[A_PLUS]

Im sorry, he has me covered by 50 chips

[mts]

Your draw is a lot better with 2 cards to come.

Let me get this straight, you want to call then push the turn against a made hand?

[TITHEAD]

Easy Push, So many outs

[Lloyd]

Most people would not lead out with a bet if they had a set or two pair. That's not to say it's unlikely (and it might be the best way of playing the hand), but it's not the common thing to do. Against top pair (AQ, KQ, QJ) you're a 54-46 favorite. Add in set and 2 pair possibilities and you're a very, very slight dog.

Pushing on the flop might look like a draw, but I think it also looks like a made hand you want to protect like AA or KK. Making a "normal" raise would be to around T1000 which pot commits you. So pushing is not an overbet. What absolutely looks like a draw is when the pot's T300 and you're pushing T2000. That's not the case here.

So for me, I'd much prefer getting my chips in on the flop as the likely favorite than missing the turn and having to push as a 2 to 1 dog.

[blockafor]

I'd push on the flop. If he has less than 2 pair, you're getting your money in as a favorite. If he has 2 pair or a set, I still think that pushing the turn looks enough like a draw that he's not going to fold enough to make the slight increase in FE outweigh your reduction of odds.

Also, there's a good chance he leads into the turn with a large bet, if not all-in, giving your push no FE.

[Lloyd]

Plus, if you just call the flop and he leads out on the turn with a pot size bet and you then push, he's getting huge odds to call. I don't see any folding equity at all. The pot would be around T1060 and you've only got T1395 left after the pre-flop raise and flop call. Chances are he'll just push on the turn putting you to the test.

And I'd prefer to isolate the MP player and get rid of the BB.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me get this straight, you want to call then push the turn against a made hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have TPTK, 2 pair, set, etc. Flop is 3 to a suit.

You overbet the pot on the flop, what do you think when someone calls vs pushes? Your right about the logic behind the push on any turn, but against certain opponents, I would make that play. What about the call, then take the free card on the turn? (this is assuming that he reads my call as "the new raise")

I guess my main point is that the push on the flop looks like what it is, a draw. So FE isnt that high. Given that my equity in the pot is about even, is pushing correct?

[Lloyd]

Because you have NO folding equity on the turn, a push on the flop is the only correct play.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd prefer to isolate the MP player and get rid of the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree with this. I think that hitting an Ace or King is unlikely to win me the hand, that being true, both of my draws are to the nuts, so I should welcome more players. That is unless you think I would have some folding equity against MP on the turn

[blockafor]

IMO, your call would look like a pair plus a good diamond or a made nut flush (not as likely). And if I'm the villain with 2-pair or better and the turn is a non-diamond, I'm pushing.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I think maybe the call-push turn may have the most FE against a made hand (non flush)

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't push turn if he's acting before you and he's an aggressive player. Calling the flop might look weak (which it is), and cause him to put you all-in on the the turn (no-diamond), which you'll hate. I don't think you can get away from this hand (that is, calling the flop) with these stacks and dynamics. Best option is reraising all-in.

[A_PLUS]

I think it is an oversimplification to say that I have NO folding equity on the turn.

We are early in the tournament. Villan has a very good stack even after the flop bet. So, to say that TPGK, will never bet a flop with 3 to a suit, and the check-fold the turn is just not true. How do I know its not true? B/c I made a similar play with an overpair two weeks ago.

Also, assuming i am a slight favorite / dog on this hand. This is not a tremendous +EV move. I gain about 150 chips on the play. So the folding equity on the turn doesnt really have to be that high to make this play worth consideration.


**BTW, I pushed and won, just trying to see alternative plays.

[Lloyd]

Ok, based on how he has played this hand and how you have described him, you SHOULD have NO folding equity on the turn.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesnt a push from another large stack look like a draw? Wouldnt a smooth call look more like a made hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But, the alternative most of the time is to call and then either turn a hand that might end your action or brick and face a bet with less folding equity and 1/2 the chance you had on the flop of making a hand.

-Jason

[durron597]

The only problem I have with pushing is that there is a good chance three of your outs aren't clean.

But I push anyway.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. But, the alternative most of the time is to call and then either turn a hand that might end your action or brick and face a bet with less folding equity and 1/2 the chance you had on the flop of making a hand.


[/ QUOTE ]


How deep would the stacks have to be relative to the pot, for you to think that a call may be the best line here? Assuming the blinds and preflop bets were the same, how much would both need to have behind, to have enough FE on the turn, to make the deception of the call worth while?

BTW, he had bottom two pair, and I rivered the straight.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
Yes. But, the alternative most of the time is to call and then either turn a hand that might end your action or brick and face a bet with less folding equity and 1/2 the chance you had on the flop of making a hand.

With 1000xBB I would still never call here.

I would raise to 3x his bet if my stack is deep enough that such a raise is less than 30% of my stack.


[/ QUOTE ]


How deep would the stacks have to be relative to the pot, for you to think that a call may be the best line here? Assuming the blinds and preflop bets were the same, how much would both need to have behind, to have enough FE on the turn, to make the deception of the call worth while?

BTW, he had bottom two pair, and I rivered the straight.

[/ QUOTE ]