My Read Changes Mid-hand, Now What?

[Sluss]

PR 50+4

220 started we're down to 38, 30 is money, but this table has no bubble concerns with everyone having a good number of chips.

I just got moved to this table two hands ago so no real reads except the play seems to be loose and fast from the stack sizes and the two hands I've seen. Plus thanks to the way PR hand histories work I don't have this hand.

Blinds 200/400 no ante about to move to 300/600 in 2 minutes.

MP 12,000 min raises to 800 Hero 6,000 in SB calls BB 9,000 calls as well.


(Pot 2400)
Flop K /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Hero leads out for 1200 BB calls MP folds

For some reason at this point I put him on a King and maybe a spade draw, but I'm done with the hand.

(pot 4800)
Turn J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero checks, BB checks

Here my read narrows to a flush draw so I'm thinking about pushing any non spade river

River Q /images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero pushes...

thoughts, comments? I don't know if I donkified this play by checking the turn and making it look like I was on a flush draw or if villan would still fold weak a K because he didn't want to cripple himself.

[AlcateL]

clearly you're saying you have rags?
Well the pot is 4k
You have about 4k left so if you think you can take the pot down 51% of the time I would do it. However in this situation i think you're going to be called enough for it to be the wrong move.

[AlcateL]

to be honest i'd only make the move if i thought i could take the pot down >>60% of the time, especially considering the bubble.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
clearly you're saying you have rags?


[/ QUOTE ]

A /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif it's sooted and has a pretty ace /images/graemlins/crazy.gif