Should I have just folded? Bubble Play

[FMMonty]

This is a hand that has seriously been bugging me for a while now, Can’t find the hand history but I can remember the hand.

PokerStars $210 + $15 turbo

4 left

Blinds 200/400 Ante 25

Button - Player A (5,000)

SB – HERO (2,500)

BB – Player B (5,100)

UTG – Player C (900)

Player A is a superb player, Player C is relatively tight. I’ve been stealing the blinds of Player B for the last three hands)

This hand comes up in the above situation. Player C & A fold. I have AQo, I push all in. Player B then calls with 89s, but he says he calls out of principal.

This hand has been bugging me, how wrong do you think my play was? I talked to player A and Player B after, and I’ve played against player A many times and he is a fantastic player and said I should have just mucked them as well.

I see why I should of mucked them, but I’m not convinced.

Very keen to hear your views?

[NYCNative]

You pushed with a great hand four-handed and it was the best hand. Why is this a mistake? Maybe if shortie was about to be blinded away but he could stick around another orbit if he wanted to play for third, especially if he is as tight as you think. Maybe you could have raised to 600 instead but with the play as it turned out, 60% of the time you're the new chip leader.

[Jman28]

I don't know how the Stars turnbo payout works, but if it is similar to Party's, then I push here instantly.

[Jon Matthews]

If you've been stealing his blinds then you're likely to get played back at if you raise a regular amount so the raise all in is fine. But you could also limp and if you get to see the flop cheaply then try to trap the BB for some chips. If the BB pushes preflop you could probably call but best wait until the shortstack has played his BB hand and see how he gets on.

Edit: Fold would be a mistake IMO, you could quite easily get to a showdown for very little and likely will have the best hand there.

[FMMonty]

I can't miniraise or raise 600 even though it could possible show a sign of strength due to my previous play, but I know that Plyaer B would of re-reraised instantly, I would. Even if I just called, he would of pushed, I've played him a few times before.

It was either fold, or push.

The argument against push, is that Player C HAS to double up to gain enough chips to be in my position, so do I really need those extra chips from the steal. If layer C doubles up then I should start to play, otherwise let him try and fight back first, So I can get ITM and then fight.

[gasgod]

This decision is a lot closer than it looks, and depends on Player B's calling range. For example, assume B would call with the top 50% of hands, and further assume that you are a 60% favorite against that range. (I have no idea if these numbers are accurate or even reasonable. This is purely hypothetical.)

ICM says you have a $EV of 22.8% (of the prize pool) by folding, and 22.7% by pushing, using the above assumptions.

OTOH, if you estimate he will call 1/3 of the time, and that you will win 58% of these, your $EV is 23.4%

Player B made a very bad call "out of principle". He should fold to your push unless he has a hand good enough to win at showdown roughly 50% of the time. Given the fact that you will push only with premium hands (because of the bubble), he should call only with premium hands. With this in mind, let's say he calls with the top 10% of hands and wins half of those. Now your $EV is 22.3%

All of the above numbers are suspect, and I'd love to see what eastbay's program would say. But it seems clear that the question is a pretty close one. You were unlucky that he didn't fold (as he should) and then sucked out.

GG

[Phill S]

The thing is, you cant assume he will make such a loose call. I know they hate being raised off their blind 4 times in a row, but if he wants to make a call with 98s, good luck to him.

Been there, done that - unless you have notes or reads to the contrary, make this move every single time.

Phill

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
The argument against push, is that Player C HAS to double up to gain enough chips to be in my position, so do I really need those extra chips from the steal.

[/ QUOTE ]This is where we differ. You and the other dude are looking at this as a "steal." I do not share this view. Pushing a strong hand when you believe it is the best hand is not a "steal." It's what a poker player is supposed to do - put their money in with the best hand.

So what does this make folding the best hand? A "donation."

[USGrant]

I'd like to know who in this forum honestly would fold AQ in this situation. Opponent is a dumb ass for calling on principle, and you're ahead long term with this play no matter what.

[sunek]

The odds for AQo vs. 98s is:

Hand 1: 59.2919 % [ 00.59 00.00 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 40.7081 % [ 00.40 00.00 ] { 98s }

As one of the posters wrote

The odds for AQo against any hand is:

Hand 1: 64.4318 % [ 00.64 00.01 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 35.5682 % [ 00.35 00.01 ] { random }

So the push is fine.

[durron597]

If your opponent has been playing tight then you have a likely chance to either win the not insignificant blinds or double up and put yourself in a good position for first.

The fact that UTG is so short makes it even more likely that you will get a fold because he doesn't want to risk getting so short that there's a chance he will bust before UTG does.

I think this is a clear push, don't play for third play to win.

[FMMonty]

What if Player C has less than the big blind and hence all in next hand.

Then you chuck the AQ?

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
What if Player C has less than the big blind and hence all in next hand.

Then you chuck the AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends how often the BB will call.

[MrX]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to know who in this forum honestly would fold AQ in this situation. Opponent is a dumb ass for calling on principle, and you're ahead long term with this play no matter what.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I push and show if he folds.

MrX