overpair on the flop

[mgsimpleton]

Sorry I don't have the hand history available, I was playing on someone else's computer, but here's the hand history, from memory.

2/4 NL on party, MP2 has me covered, I have about 450.

my only read is that i've played with this guy a few times and i know him to be fairly solid, in that i've seen him with a big stack, often. i was 8 tabling for the first time so things were a little hectic and i was unable to see too many hands played in which i was not involved. so....

MP2 raises to 8, two callers, I make it 32 to go on the button with K /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif MP2 calls.

Pot - 75... Flop is Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP2 bets 50, I minraise to 100. MP2 calls.

I don't know what I Was thinking on the flop, I was sort of afraid of QQ because I'm chickensh--... I realize now that minraising looks weak and is begging the next play which is...

turn is a J /images/graemlins/spade.gif, MP2 goes all in for 268...

your move?

[thabadguy]

Does the villain know you to minraise sets on the flop?How bout overpairs?
I think the turn is a very easy fold. Hardly see a hand that you beat. If he is ballsy enough to do this with AQ, AK or TT, good for him.
I would like a flop raise to 150ish, if called proceed with caution. The J on the turn is one of the worst cards for you, he could easily have QQ or JJ.JJ being more likely, I think. I fold this without thinking twice.
The minraise on the flop cost you this hand I think, looks terribly weak to me.
On the other hand, a minraise with a set of queens once in a while is not a bad play, kinda throws the villain off as to what your minraise means.

[mgsimpleton]

this is the first time i have ever minraised an overpair on the flop. thought this was a pretty harmless flop, to be honest. the J was the card i was most afraid of when he pushed, especially given preflop action. what range of hands do you put him on? any chance it's a stone bluff (or is this too player dependent?)

i think the minraise is actually a decent play if i'm planning to go all the way anyway. if i'm planning on felting, no reason to raise huge and give away the strength of my hand on the flop, this will let him definitely stack me with a set/2 pr... otherwise he may value bet. this one was tough because the pot was already so big.

[thabadguy]

Obviously the 3 scariest cards in the deck are A,Q,J for you. The hands i see as most likely are QQ JJ maaaaybbee AQ, AK, or if he is real tricky AA. The only time i ever remember minraising is a check-minraise when I was on a complete bluff, trying to make it look like a semi-bluff,and it worked perfectly.
Honestly when a player minraises me, im thinking a badly played monster or absolute nothing, maybe my thinking is flawed, I just dont like minraising. The push obviously represents a set to me, Jacks being the likely set.
If i were in villain's shoes, the minraise would look like AK to me, and I would push turn with almost anything as long as an A or K did'nt show up.

I think if you woulda raised more on the flop, you would have the easiest fold on the turn if the villain pushes.
In conclusion I think a fold on the turn is in order, because he either has a set or is representing a set really well, because he thinks you are weak.
Maybe some more experienced posters would correct me if im wrong.

[aggie]

I think the two valid options on this flop are calling and a full raise. I really dislike the minraise as it accomplishes nothing and sets you up for some very difficult decisions. If you raise the $50 bet to 150-200 and he comes back over the top you can get away. The minraise is just as scary to somebody with a queen as a full raise. So not only do you not get money in the pot, you give away info about the strength of your hand.

I also like to just call all the way down on flops like these (especially against aggressive players). They will think their AQ is good and will continue to bet it with very few outs. If you are behind, you lose the minimum.

As it played out, I think you have a very close decision. I don’t think this allin necessarily shows great strength. Many opponents will think “I’ve got a Q that I’m not folding in a heads up pot but I don’t want to let a draw get there” so they shove in. I would probably make a crying call.

[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the two valid options on this flop are calling and a full raise. I really dislike the minraise as it accomplishes nothing and sets you up for some very difficult decisions. If you raise the $50 bet to 150-200 and he comes back over the top you can get away. The minraise is just as scary to somebody with a queen as a full raise. So not only do you not get money in the pot, you give away info about the strength of your hand.

I also like to just call all the way down on flops like these (especially against aggressive players). They will think their AQ is good and will continue to bet it with very few outs. If you are behind, you lose the minimum.

As it played out, I think you have a very close decision. I don’t think this allin necessarily shows great strength. Many opponents will think “I’ve got a Q that I’m not folding in a heads up pot but I don’t want to let a draw get there” so they shove in. I would probably make a crying call.

[/ QUOTE ]
What if you try to call all the way down and villain pushes and his push has you covered? I just dont think calling all the way down works in nl without a monster.
I know im probably the worst person to disagree with calling all the way down, but I only do it sometimes when i think i have a read or i wanna discourage people from bluffing me.
I still advocate a fold here, if only a slightly tougher one than if you had put in a good raise on the flop
WB btw.

[Leptyne]

I play 3/6 NL Party. What I normally see in this situation is the flop checked to the big raiser. When MP2 leads to you I put him on QQ. I don't see villain betting into your raise, even though it is a button raise, with JJ. If villain lead into you with JJ to see if your raise was legit then villain sould fold to to your min raise. I think this is exactly what it looks like. Min raise looks like QQ or JJ. Big button raise looks like AA or KK. MP2 calls the preflop raise thinking flop a set or fold. Of course slowplayed AA is possible, but not probable. I think your min-raise was fine. For a discussion on that see the post "Why don't you respect my min-raise?". In any case it's a clear fold now.

[aggie]

Calling all the way down can be a very effective weapon when in position against an aggressive opponent on a nonthreatening board with tricky stack sizes. It's something that i've only recently begun doing in my game but seems to be working effectively.

I like a 'real' raise better than i like calling down in this case but I think the minraise is the worst available option.

[jumister5889]

I would not have folded. Considering he only miniraised preflop, he might have a Q or KQ. Think about it, you've seen him many times with a big stack. Most people who are consistant stack builders are aggressive and play marginal hands like QT or KQ or QJ. I think because he saw you miniraise, he thinks you're weak and he'll bet you again to try and take the pot. \I would've called him, but i think the miniraise was a mistake.

[mgsimpleton]

without revealing the results quite yet, i thought about that in retrospect - that my min raise might have looked like AK's weak continuation raise... but i mean, do many players really continue to represent AA or KK with AK when faced with a 2/3 pot bet on the flop??? and if i was that committed to actually representing those hands then wouldn't i be more inclined to raise huge?

that's what concerns me about the hand - what did the min raise represent? i thought it would just be confusing, because he can't put me on AK or AA or KK but you can't just assume QQ so i thought he'd be thrown off... actually let's be honest i was 8 tabling for the first time and felt overly tight because i'd just been stacked by a set on another table to my overpair...

point being... what do you put me on when i minraise if you are villain?

i couldn't put him on AQ because in my experience in these situations, AQ just wants to get to a showdown. any half decent player knows that i'm representing KK/AA so AQ is either way behind or way ahead of a complete bluff... therefore AQ usually makes a decision to go for it or not go for it but AQ putting me all in would be the worst decision if my range was AA/KK/QQ/AK... so AQ would have to put me on a wider range than that, and what the hell could it be? that's why i didn't think he had AQ.

do you people think i'm giving the average 2/4 NL player waaaay too much credit for thinking on multiple levels, or even, at all?

[mgsimpleton]

reraising him would be tough when he's all in. i don't think deep stacked players are aggressive with crappy hands. they tend to lose their stacks that way. also when you say he thought i was weak you have to think about what he puts me on, not just "weakness," there has to be a hand range... see my last post.

[jumister5889]

[ QUOTE ]
do you people think i'm giving the average 2/4 NL player waaaay too much credit for thinking on multiple levels, or even, at all?


[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, yes. I don't think the average 2/4nlhe er thinks that much and puts you on AA/KK. I think he just tried to bluff because of the miniraise.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
do you people think i'm giving the average 2/4 NL player waaaay too much credit for thinking on multiple levels, or even, at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

[jumister5889]

[ QUOTE ]
reraising him would be tough when he's all in. i don't think deep stacked players are aggressive with crappy hands. they tend to lose their stacks that way. also when you say he thought i was weak you have to think about what he puts me on, not just "weakness," there has to be a hand range... see my last post.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think for the average 2/4 nlher putting you on AK is a reasonable guess. Think about what villain is thinking: You raised 4 times the big blind preflop, and postflop when nothing pairs with AK, you miniraise because you can't get off AK. That would be a reasonable beginner-intermediate player read epecially for someone that doesnt know you.

[thabadguy]

The first thing i would put u on is AK.

[mgsimpleton]

for some reason i had a feeling he would push and then i chickened out and folded... now that i think about it, i think this min raise tactic may be ok as it may induce a bluff or lead him to believe his AQ is good (if you're planning on going to the felt in either event).

so he went all in, i folded, and he showed 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

and to think, i usually can't lay down a hand.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
when you say he thought i was weak you have to think about what he puts me on, not just "weakness

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you don’t….I think that thinking is a problem…I don’t think your typical 2-4 opponent thinks that deeply.

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think deep stacked players are aggressive with crappy hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Many very good deep stack opponents are very aggressive with crappy hands and very strong hands. They are less aggressive with medium strength hands.

[mgsimpleton]

[ QUOTE ]


Many very good deep stack opponents are very aggressive with crappy hands and very strong hands. They are less aggressive with medium strength hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i sorta meant they're not gonna get that aggressive with QT though now looking at it, QT does have an inside straight draw. i just don't think any capable opponent calls preflop with a hand like QT, even suited... oop for 6BB's? come on.

i think i just have to plan on getting stacked sometimes with a set to my overpair, especially if they're good enough to lead the flop. still read dependent but maybe it's just usually right to call, especially givwen how big the pot was before the flop.

[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
If i were in villain's shoes, the minraise would look like AK to me, and I would push turn with almost anything as long as an A or K did'nt show up.


[/ QUOTE ]
Just wanna say BINGO!

[aggie]

I think the lesson to be learned here is that you are definitely giving away something 8-tabling. I personally can’t do it and would become a losing player if I tried. Some people can do it and maintain a reasonable winrate (or at least they say they can). This hand would have been SO much easier with a read. It’s also why I prefer playing live to online

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If i were in villain's shoes, the minraise would look like AK to me, and I would push turn with almost anything as long as an A or K did'nt show up.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Just wanna say BINGO!

[/ QUOTE ]

So basically, against thabadguy, hero played this hand perfectly...Except she should have called the all in bet. Learning to induce bluffs from super aggressive players like thabadguy can be very profitable.

[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If i were in villain's shoes, the minraise would look like AK to me, and I would push turn with almost anything as long as an A or K did'nt show up.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Just wanna say BINGO!

[/ QUOTE ]

So basically, against thabadguy, hero played this hand perfectly...Except she should have called the all in bet. Learning to induce bluffs from super aggressive players like thabadguy can be very profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL!!! Keep in mind, i would play JJ the exact same way.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL!!! Keep in mind, i would play JJ the exact same way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately from personal experience, i know /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jumister5889]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
when you say he thought i was weak you have to think about what he puts me on, not just "weakness

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you don’t….I think that thinking is a problem…I don’t think your typical 2-4 opponent thinks that deeply.

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think deep stacked players are aggressive with crappy hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Many very good deep stack opponents are very aggressive with crappy hands and very strong hands. They are less aggressive with medium strength hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks aggie, my points exactly

[thabadguy]

I completely agree, i'll toss tptk almost everytime facing a lotta aggression, but with absolute nothing, ill be willing to push, just feels good.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

The only hand you can beat is AQ or a complete bluff. If he thinks you're overly aggressive, which I'm assuming is likely, he might even have jacks and put you on AK and hit the turn. But this is a routine fold.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

[ QUOTE ]

so he went all in, i folded, and he showed 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif


[/ QUOTE ]
Make a note and set him up with a min-raise in the future, but it's asking too much to pick off somebody bluffing at you when you're showing strength with no reads and only one pair.

[Chaostracize]

For the record, the flop was Q 8 2. The turn was a J that was the same suit as the Q.

How many people think QQ and JJ and min raising in MP2 with QQ and JJ? Isn't this min raise more indicative of a ha nd like 44-88?

I think villain is most afraid of 88 here, and can disclude QQ and JJ. AQ is a possibility as is (to a lesser extent) QJs.

Getting 2-1 on this call I think it's close either way. I would lean towards a call seeing as hero min raised the flop, which lately doesn't represent much strength, but rather AK which wants to take it down.

On a Q86 flop is very very close, on a Q82 flop it's just close.

[edge]

I'm curious why no one puts Villian on QJ here? I think QJ is probably the most likely hand given all the action.

I hate the flop though. I smoothcall most of the time, and raise bigger the rest of the time. The flop play made this hand into a difficult one.

[jumister5889]

I put him on QJ. You guys aren't looking at the big picture. You're all over analyzing and wasting good oppurtunities. This is the average fish. He doesnt think like us.