2-7 TD - why I suddenly became a better player

[Luv2DriveTT]

I've been playing TD for 2 or 3 months now I guess, overall its been a break even situation but I've had a blast. Then suddenly a light went off in my head, there was something SSII did not cover... think about it, what is so fundamental to calculating the odds in poker?

To make a long story short, I started folding more often. I now win considerably more than I did before. Do you see why?

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[MarkGritter]

Err.... size of the pot?

[JohnnyHumongous]

Err... Short-term variance?

[Ezcheeze]

You started considering the chance that you are drawing dead?

Either that or you are given more consideration to exactly how many cards are left that make your hand. For example, 4 poeple are in for 3 bets on the first round and you need a 3 to make a wheel, well theres a good chance theres 2 or less left in the deck.

-Ezcheeze

[BluffTHIS!]

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You started considering the chance that you are drawing dead?

Either that or you are given more consideration to exactly how many cards are left that make your hand. For example, 4 poeple are in for 3 bets on the first round and you need a 3 to make a wheel, well theres a good chance theres 2 or less left in the deck.

-Ezcheeze

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Exactly - just like in stud - LIVE CARDS (and are you drawing to hand that will win). Plus factor in splits.

[Danielih]

This could not possibly be the reason you were breaking even before and winning now.

If you are now folding pots before the last draw because you think all of the key cards you need are missing could only cost you a fraction of a bet if it were true.

You have 7432 and instead of maybe thinking 6 outs you have 4 outs. You will still play on in many cases. Remeber folding when you shouldn't is the biggest mistake in poker. Either way, this type of situation combined with the fact that folding is probably costing you EV makes it unlikely that it is the key to your success.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

Not sure if this is what you are getting at, but if you play online for small stakes -- the rake is a bitch...

[Luv2DriveTT]

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Err.... size of the pot?

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Winner takes the prize.

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[MarkGritter]

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Err.... size of the pot?

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Winner takes the prize.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

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It comes of being an Ed Miller disciple and being beaten about the head with his million-dollar pot example.

Can you give some examples?

I tend to fold unraised pots much more easily after the first hand. I have a feeling I should be folding my unimproved 2-card draws even in raised pots, but I'm not quite sure where the line is--- with position I usually pay another 1 SB to try again.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

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Err.... size of the pot?

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Winner takes the prize.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

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I missed the "fundamental to calculating odds" part of your question... but I assumed that a player of your calibur was already taking this into account. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Anyway, if you are in raise/fold mode, pre-flop (draw?) and your raising standards are solid, the pot size will typically be large enough in latter rounds to draw when you have a quality drawing hand.

A key to my playing better: Tight play from the SB. I lose too much from the SB (but I think that is covered by Danny in SSII).

[fnord_too]

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Err.... size of the pot?

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Winner takes the prize.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

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Anyway, if you are in raise/fold mode, pre-flop (draw?) and your raising standards are solid, the pot size will typically be large enough in latter rounds to draw when you have a quality drawing hand.



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This is not necessarily true. A lot of times in blind defense situations you do not have odds to call the turn even with a good draw. Likewise when the flop gets cheked through (or even check called often) the pot does not justify drawing. (This is mainly a consideration OOP, but even comes up in position).

Here is one example:
You raise, BB calls. 2BB in the pot.
BB takes one you take two.
Either it is checked through or one bet goes in.
BB stands pat you draw 1 or 2.
On the turn you have 2347 and the BB bets.
You have at most 8 outs to a 7, 12 outs to an 8. If you know BB has at worst a 9, you are getting 4:1 your call (at best), and you are at best 3:1 dog to improve. In reality, you probably have 6 outs to a 7 on average and 9 outs to an 8. You just don't have odds to call there. With implied odds, you are getting 5:1 on your call if you hit your 7, but you are a 6:1 dog there. Furthermore, if you hit your 8 it may not be good, and if you hit a 9 you may have to pay off.

Another place this turns up a lot: You defend and draw 2, villain draws 2. You double brick he bets, you fold or it is checked through you draw two and improve he draws one. This is a check fold scenario. The pot is too small to try to steal that likely wont work, and you are better off IMO hoping for a free last draw.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

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This is not necessarily true. A lot of times in blind defense situations you do not have odds to call the turn even with a good draw. Likewise when the flop gets cheked through (or even check called often) the pot does not justify drawing. (This is mainly a consideration OOP, but even comes up in position).


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Yeah, I was going to mention the blind defense scenario but my posts tend to be less complete when I type them from work. If I have a two card draw to a 7 or a smooth 8, I will often defend my blinds and drop it if I don't improve (depending on my opponent, etc.). But if you raise with position and are just called by a blind, I think this is difficult to drop to a bet.

Lets say I have the beautiful 742xx pre-draw and raise from CO and only the blind defends. If the blind takes 2 and I take 2 and the blind checks, I am betting about 80% of the time regardless of whether or not I improve. So now assume I am called, BB draws 1 and I draw 2. There are just over 3 BBs in the pot. If I improve to a one card draw (lets say 7542x), I don't think I can fold to a bet.

In your hypo, where the BB is pat on the second draw after drawing two on the first draw, I think the decision on whether or not to fold is a far closer one.... I need to do a little math... maybe later...

[Luv2DriveTT]

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Lets say I have the beautiful 742xx pre-draw

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don't fall in love with 742. Its strong, but not super strong. I will open raise this from the button, and in some (not all) open raise from the CO. I have become a lot more passive preflop because the opponents are going to call anyway, this hand does not require a value raise - hence keeping the pot smaller (which is a seperate strategic thought on it's own). On the opposite side 234 is a VERY strong hand and worth a value raise, as is 2458 (worth a re-raise in most scenarios.

U know what makes me happy? Players who re-raise pre-flop from the small blind with this hand. I make a huge profit this way /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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[fnord_too]

Are you saying you will raise 234 more than 247?

[Luv2DriveTT]

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Are you saying you will raise 234 more than 247?

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Yes.

Or specifically I am saying that not all 2 card draws are equal, and that 2 card draws aren't the amazing hands that most make them out to be. Combine that with better consideration of pot size, and I have started to win considerably more.

PS: In hindsight Daniel's chapter is missing a lot.

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[randomstumbl]

In what situation is 234 that much better than 247? I can't come up with a situation where the equity is significantly different.

I will admit to overvaluing some hands, but the difference between 234 and 247 or 257 doesn't seem like it'd change anyones results by that much.

[fnord_too]

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In what situation is 234 that much better than 247? I can't come up with a situation where the equity is significantly different.

I will admit to overvaluing some hands, but the difference between 234 and 247 or 257 doesn't seem like it'd change anyones results by that much.

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I am thinking I want 2x7 where x is any card between 2 and 7 more than I want 234, but I want to think about it a bit more. Basically, with 2x7 there are 3 combinations of cards that get you a 7, where as with 234 there are only 2. 234 has 2 smooth 8's and one rough one to 2x7's 3 rough 8's.

[timprov]

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I am thinking I want 2x7 where x is any card between 2 and 7 more than I want 234, but I want to think about it a bit more. Basically, with 2x7 there are 3 combinations of cards that get you a 7, where as with 234 there are only 2. 234 has 2 smooth 8's and one rough one to 2x7's 3 rough 8's.

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2w7 (w=wheel card) > 234 > 267 in a typical game. In a game where you can safely value bet 876es, 267 might be better than 234.

[MarkGritter]

While 234 doesn't have as many draws as 2x7, I think you can usually drive the betting very aggressively when you hit since you are most likely smoother than your opponent(s).

Negreanu claims in SS2 that 237 is a small favorite over 234 HU, but that 234 does better against other hands.

I'll be a better TD player when I fall out of love with 2345, though.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

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Lets say I have the beautiful 742xx pre-draw

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don't fall in love with 742.

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hyperbole... you're right... it ain't that beautiful... but it's better than many (most?) other hands that my opponents will call my raise with.

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Its strong, but not super strong. I will open raise this from the button, and in some (not all) open raise from the CO. I have become a lot more passive preflop because the opponents are going to call anyway, this hand does not require a value raise - hence keeping the pot smaller (which is a seperate strategic thought on it's own). On the opposite side 234 is a VERY strong hand and worth a value raise, as is 2458 (worth a re-raise in most scenarios.

U know what makes me happy? Players who re-raise pre-flop from the small blind with this hand. I make a huge profit this way /images/graemlins/smile.gif

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

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Others have said this, but with a 7x2, you are more likely to make a 7 but cannot make a smooth 8. With 234, you are less likely to make a 7 but also have the potential of making a good 8. The difference is not significant enough for me to play it differently before the first draw. I may be giving away my game a bit, but I am raising with either one of these hands from any position (except the SB (unless folded to me) and, possibly, the BB).

Awaiting our next 2-7 TD encounter...

CJ

[Luv2DriveTT]

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Awaiting our next 2-7 TD encounter...

CJ

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My place if our special room is not ready for us. Gather the troops /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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[Luv2DriveTT]

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While 234 doesn't have as many draws as 2x7, I think you can usually drive the betting very aggressively when you hit since you are most likely smoother than your opponent(s).

Negreanu claims in SS2 that 237 is a small favorite over 234 HU, but that 234 does better against other hands.

I'll be a better TD player when I fall out of love with 2345, though.

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Excellent post Mark. The problem with 2x7 hands is that the player over-values their draw and often value bets where it is not necessary. Although we all want the nutz in the end, a player can win more often with a smooth draw to an 8 than he can with a draw to the nutz. The hero's goal should never be to win with the best possible hand, it should be to win more often.

I believe that Daniel has made unintentional errors in SSII due to "one size fits all" mentality. I also feel he is creating an army of over-aggressive players who value raise far too often, and in the wrong spots. I was one of them, I see the errors in my ways now.

PS: Play 2345 slow and steady, you will have better results. TD is a unique game in that it doesn't always pay to take the lead, it is more profitable to be passive in some multi-way pots. This is of course contrary to our traditional poker upbringing, but once it sinks in.... wow!

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[timprov]

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Excellent post Mark. The problem with 2x7 hands is that the player over-values their draw and often value bets where it is not necessary. Although we all want the nutz in the end, a player can win more often with a smooth draw to an 8 than he can with a draw to the nutz. The hero's goal should never be to win with the best possible hand, it should be to win more often.


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It comes down to a question of how much more valuable an 86 or 85 is than a smooth 87. While there are certainly games where this makes a difference, usually it is not enough to make up for the loss of 1/3 of your chance at a 7.

[beerbandit]

now i know your secret, the money is mine in vegas


i want to get a little warm up, i probably should get so cash on ub to play, what other sites spread it


cheers

edit: also i think you need to either change your pic or your location, it confuses me

[Luv2DriveTT]

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edit: also i think you need to either change your pic or your location, it confuses me

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I forgot the location! FIXED.

PS: I don't share all my secrets here... some you will have to learn when I slowly take your bankroll in Vegas /images/graemlins/wink.gif

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

TT's secrets are revealed in his photo:

Popped collar and shades... makes him unbeatable...

[Luv2DriveTT]

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TT's secrets are revealed in his photo:

Popped collar and shades... makes him unbeatable...

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Come home Chuck.... we miss you. Well actually we miss your donations /images/graemlins/grin.gif

In all seriousness, you know what I am talking about. Wink Wink.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

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TT's secrets are revealed in his photo:

Popped collar and shades... makes him unbeatable...

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Come home Chuck.... we miss you. Well actually we miss your donations /images/graemlins/grin.gif

In all seriousness, you know what I am talking about. Wink Wink.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

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MY DONATIONS!!! Excuse me, but I believe I am the winningest player in our little live TD game...

Work has been a bitch... next Tuesday maybe? I would love the chance to humble you a bit before you head out to Vegas.