Math questions for newbies

[danvh]

Need a little help here.

My boss knows I play cards allot, and win. Her kids (17 years old) are starting to get caught up in the poker frenzy. I told her I would help them (hard to say no when you get the benifit for showing up tired and saying you won allot the night before), she doesnt want them to lose allot of money or be degenerates.

I figured explaining the math and actual skill it takes would help. Any ideas what I can ask them or show them, considering that they dont know math wise, Im assuming they know nill. They win allot in their home games (25 bucks, which i guess is good for their games). But after talking to them they dont know much.

Need ideas on how to ask questions (that arent crazy) that they wont know, to let them know they dont know much, but without pissing them off. I know the obvious answers are telling them to read 2+2 books. But i dont wanna throw them into the deeppend. Just want to let them know there is more skill involved in winning then they might have. Again, they are not total fish, but just have decent insticts and play against total fish. Just need to humble them, with out say playing them and beating them (not good for job).

Any information or questions would be appreciated. Since I am kind of related to their poker lives, I dont want them jumping onto the internet and getting killed. Or thinking they are better then they are are jumping to high to soon because they have ok results.

[Jordan Olsommer]

I'd say start with Basic Probability (and the general idea that to get the probability of something you want happening, you just take " number of ways what I want can happen / total number of ways it can happen at all") and then show them how to apply that to poker (e.g. flush draw on turn, 9 ways to get a river card you want, 46 possible river cards total), then I'd say go through the "outs" sheet with them, to show them how that applies to various other situations in poker (straight draws, gutshot draws, open-ended straight flush draws with live overcards, etc, etc).

I think that would be a good way to progress in order to a) give them a nice core understanding of the game, and b) not overwhelm them.

*edit: also I would suggest hammering into their heads the idea that the object isn't to win the most pots, but rather to win the most money. Lots of people starting out make that mistake too (of course this is all speculation, since I dont know who these kids are, how smart they are, what they know about poker already, etc. so I certainly could be wrong here)

[bfc]

Here are some possible math-related questions. Assume you're playing NL holdem with a $1 BB. UTG raises to $4 and it's folded to you on the button with 55. You assume, for the moment, that UTG has a higher pocket pair but you call to see the flop in the hope of hitting a set. Assume the blinds always fold.

Q: How often will you flop a set?

Your strategy is to fold to any bet if you don't flop a set assuming you'll show down the winning hand if you do.

Q: How much do you need to win each hand you flop a set in order to finish ahead in the long run?

Q: Assuming you know UTG has a higher PP, should you adopt this stragegy and call if UTG has a $20 stack and you have a $100 stack?

Q: If UTG has KK and you both go all in, how often will you win?

Q: If UTG has AK and you both go all in, how often will you win?

Q: Observation has shown that UTG will make this bet with AK, AQ, or JJ-AA. What proportion of the time will he have an overpair and what proportion will he have overcards?

Q: UTG has a $20 stack to your $100. He will fold everything except KK, AA to your all-in reraise. How much will you win on average (in the long run) by reraising all-in?

Q: Same question except you both have $100. UTG will fold everything except KK, AA to your all-in reraise. How much will you win on average by reraising all-in?

Q: What if UTG will call with any of the hands AK, AQ, JJ-AA. How much will you win on average by reraising all-in?

Maybe the "fold unless you flop a set" strategy is suboptimal. Assume you both have $100, you call his $4 raise and the flop is all babies rainbow.

Q: What is the probability you are holding the best hand?

Q: What is the probability you will showdown the best hand?

Q: UTG bets $9.50 into the $9.50 pot. What's your move?

Some of these questions may be too difficult but there are many variations. You can see how these questions illustrate the point made by Jordan that the object isn't to win the most pots, but rather to win the most money. You can mention concepts of expected value and implied odds if you think they're getting it. The discussion leads towards the conclusion that to play well you need to understand the importance of position, knowing your opponent, relative stack size, pot odds, and implied odds.

I think it's vital they understand the probabilities of all the common matchups (overcards vs underpair, etc.). In particular, they need to understand the trouble they're in with dominated hands. Give them hypothetical situation of calling an EP raise from the button with AJ and the flop comes A 9 4. Discuss the posible hands they may be facing. Then look at the same hand with flops of, for example, J 8 4 or K Q 3.