Why I like PokerProphecy

[Messy_Jesse]

I made this call after I saw that he was a 22% player...


***** Hand History for Game 2131859285 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:12679499 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Monday, May 30, 23:21:34 EDT 2005
Table Table 12327 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: hackinaway ( $1230 )
Seat 2: vips007 ( $640 )
Seat 3: ExciteFactor ( $1050 )
Seat 4: sss47 ( $1205 )
Seat 5: Aldo13 ( $1180 )
Seat 6: Wallace50 ( $1055 )
Seat 7: UWntJssesGrl ( $970 )
Seat 8: BYRNIE00 ( $795 )
Seat 9: anav8r ( $960 )
Seat 10: davidof2 ( $915 )
Trny:12679499 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to UWntJssesGrl [ Js Jd ]
sss47 folds.
Aldo13 calls [30].
Wallace50 folds.
UWntJssesGrl calls [30].
BYRNIE00 is all-In [795]
anav8r folds.
davidof2 folds.
hackinaway folds.
vips007 folds.
ExciteFactor folds.
Aldo13 folds.
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
ok byrnie, im gonna go with my gut here, and could get rocked, BUT, i think you have 77, so im gonna call
UWntJssesGrl calls [765].
>You have options at Table 14038 Table!.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3s, Ad, 6h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4d ]
UWntJssesGrl shows [ Js, Jd ] a pair of jacks.
BYRNIE00 shows [ 2c, 2d ] a pair of twos.
UWntJssesGrl wins 1665 chips from the main pot with a pair of jacks.
BYRNIE00 finished in tenth place

[CaptSensible]

I instantly dismissed pokerprophecy because: When I typed my own name in the "try it out" area of their website my stats were TOTALLY wrong. It said that I had a win rate of something like 48% when it was actually around 27%. I couldn't really take the program very seriously after that.

[justin D]

[ QUOTE ]
ok byrnie, im gonna go with my gut here, and could get rocked, BUT, i think you have 77, so im gonna call

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that really necessary?

[Messy_Jesse]

Haha yes... absolutely necessary... I needed that so I'd feel better if he flipped over AA.

[michw]

I use poker prophecy in similar situations. If it's a marginal decision (like calling off all your chips with JJ in level 2) I'll look a guys numbers up too. However, it has also caused me to take some undesired coinflips in the early levels.

As far as poker prophecy accuracy - it only overstates my real ITM% by 1%. And it's numbers usually seem to jive with the players I look up. The good multitablers I know of are usually above 40%, while the idiots are below 30%.

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]

As far as poker prophecy accuracy - it only overstates my real ITM% by 1% . And it's numbers usually seem to jive with the players I look up. The good multitablers I know of are usually above 40%, while the idiots are below 30%.

[/ QUOTE ]

brand new account as of May 1

pokerprofarcey stats
Games played 47
$20 Table: 27 wins / 20 losses / 57.45% wins

actual stats
Games played 133
$20 Table: 62 wins / 71 losses / 46.6% wins

nice that it only catches roughly a third of my games, no?

pokerprofarcy = steaming pile of dog doo

[viennagreen]

i think though, that if you ignore the results for all users who have less than 100 recorded-by-prophecy games, you will find the occasional results to be much more useful and accurate ITM %-wise.

at least, that's what i do, and i feel like it gives me enough knowledge at times to be more than worth the money i paid for it.

[Degen]

obviously a sample size issue.

they don't get them all but they get enough to make it statistically accurate with enough tourneys in there.


Andre

[HoldingFolding]

PokerProphecy helped me, chip leader was looking up everyone's stats and announcing them to the table (68% wins). My steals got a lot more respect after that - of course, it should have been the other way round /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Player ******
Games played 174
Wins 80 (45.98%)
Losses 94 (54.02%)
Average Buy-In $21.26
Players with better winning percentage 76831
Players with worse winning percentage 414391
$30 Table: 15 wins / 7 losses / 68.18% wins
$20 Table: 65 wins / 87 losses / 42.76% wins

Player:



For best results, a Player should have 20 or more games played to get an idea of their skill level. If so, here is how we suggest you analyze the data:
Players Win Percentage 40% or higher Player is a Pro

[jccookjr]

I've found that 90% of the time Poker Prophecy "fish" are the first to bust out, usually real fast.

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
obviously a sample size issue.

they don't get them all but they get enough to make it statistically accurate with enough tourneys in there.


Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

You keep on saying this, and will never stop saying this, despite the fact that you know it is incorrect.

[duke44]

[ QUOTE ]
pokerprofarcey stats
Games played 47
$20 Table: 27 wins / 20 losses / 57.45% wins

actual stats
Games played 133
$20 Table: 62 wins / 71 losses / 46.6% wins

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing that most of your missed games where from May 2nd to roughly the middle of the month(15 or 16th). We had awful data collection for about two weeks there, but with our recent changes and Party Poker updating there servers we are actually over our goal of 80% data retrieval now.

You can follow the data history at www.pokerprophecy.com (http://www.pokerprophecy.com), data history to see our last 30 days of data retrieval.

[ace_in_the_hole]

It seems that the info on this site is becoming more accurate. OR maybe I'm just saying that because I ahve good stats there. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Player *******77
Games played 107
Wins 46 (42.99%)
Losses 61 (57.01%)
Average Buy-In $11.4
Players with better winning percentage 93246
Players with worse winning percentage 403314
$20 Table: 7 wins / 8 losses / 46.67% wins
$10 Table: 39 wins / 53 losses / 42.39% wins

[poindexter]

Hi Duke,
Although your product doesnt pick up all the games, it treats everyone the same so I am satisfied with my purchase. One suggeston I have for you is to change the WSOP freeroll tournament to allow the $109+ buy ins to compete. Its easy for a decent player to go 46+% in the $10's and $20's. That is why your top 50 players are all low buy in players. I suggest using a weighted system like Empire Poker uses for their WSOP freerolls, or at least reserve a certain amount of seats for the higher limit players.

[curtains]

PokerProphecy is very slightly useful, meaning it might be useful once per week, or maybe once per every other week or month for me. However that alone makes it worth $30 or whatever it was I paid to get it. Also it's fun sometimes to look people up, even if you do take the results with a grain of salt.

It's of course also very ammoral to purchase the software due to the fact that the creators are liars+crooks (they consistantly advertise results that their software doesn't give), but whatever I'll live with myself.

[duke44]

[ QUOTE ]
That is why your top 50 players are all low buy in players. I suggest using a weighted system like Empire Poker uses for their WSOP freerolls, or at least reserve a certain amount of seats for the higher limit players.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are looking at a few different ways to try and get an equal distribution of players from all levels. Our new site is coming out soon and we will be doing several things with the Top 50 in the coming weeks once the site is done so please stay tuned /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Also the Top 50 was updated today in case anyone was interested.

[allenciox]

By the way, I got a new empirepoker id around the middle of May, and as one data point over that period, I have played 47 SNGs over that time period, but it has only picked up 18 of them. So the data collection is still pretty spotty.

[tminus]

i dont like prophecy because the #'s are usually off and it cant tell me anything that I can already gather during the game, can usually spot the lunatics and tight wads by level 4

plus most of the players have played < 200 games and have ITM between 30-40%

[DonButtons]

I love it when it says im a fish, and some 2+2er looks me up and calls me with JJ and says im calling b/c you suck, and I pwn him with AA in level 2...I miss the days of the beginning of my new account...

[Pokerscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
obviously a sample size issue.

they don't get them all but they get enough to make it statistically accurate with enough tourneys in there.


Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

You keep on saying this, and will never stop saying this, despite the fact that you know it is incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah! I plan on playing 1000 more tournaments and Poker Prophecy doesn't have those results in it's database! Sure poker prophecy has all the 500 that I have played but that is only a THIRD of all I plan on playing.

What a piece of crap. It is totally useless without all those other games.

Pokerscott