7 Stud: common mistakes made in basic starting hand situations

[King Yao]

Here are some basic starting hand situations where I think most players make mistakes in 7-Card Stud, high only. I’ll define "most" as greater than 75% of players in 10/20 and higher games – full games, not shorthanded. For each situation, A. is the correct way to play, and B. is the way most players play it. Please let me know if you disagree with any of these (I am still very new to stud, I could be very wrong).

1. Player has split K’s. A decent player with split A’s raises two after the bring-in.
A. The player with split K’s should fold.
B. Most players call with split K’s.

2. Player limps in with split J’s when there are two overcards on the board. An overcard raises.
A. The player with split J’s should fold.
B. Most players call the raise with split J’s.

(I was in a 75/150 game with an A showing. The player to my left brought it in with a 2. Three players limped in with J, T and 9 showing, respectively. I raised with my split pair of A's. Everyone folded. Does this mean this is a bad game?)

3. Player raises with split A’s two after the bring-in. A good player re-raises with a Q showing.
A. The player with split A’s should fold on 5th or earlier if unimproved.
B. Most players call through the River.

4. The bring-in is a 2c, and 5 players fold. The Player has split K’s and he raises. The next player (a solid player) has a A showing and he re-raises. (I had asked this question in an earlier post).
A. The player with split K’s should fold on the spot. But he really shouldn’t be doing that too often otherwise a sharp player will make a play on him in these situations.
B. Most players call.

[nef]

1 Fold if you are certain I guess.

For question 2, I think, depending on dead cards, your kicker, and the size of the ante, the person with the jacks should have just folded for the bring in. After that I think B is correct.

For #3 the Aces should call to the river, and possibly call the river unimproved.

For #4 the K raise might look like a steal so the range of hands the person with the A has is larger than usual. I don't think immediately folding is correct.

[Roland]

Nice post.

It really all depends on the structure though. I don’t know what you had in mind, but I’ll give it a try:


[ QUOTE ]

1. Player has split K’s. A decent player with split A’s raises two after the bring-in.
A. The player with split K’s should fold.
B. Most players call with split K’s.

[/ QUOTE ]


It’s just not that simple. Folding might be way wrong, since most players (decent or not) will complete with a lot of hands you can beat (like 3-flushes, buried queens, jacks or maybe even deuces). Calling might be correct, or even raising. I tend to raise, if that’s what it takes to get it heads-up.



[ QUOTE ]

2. Player limps in with split J’s when there are two overcards on the board. An overcard raises.
A. The player with split J’s should fold.
B. Most players call the raise with split J’s.

[/ QUOTE ]


In the Party 5/10 through 20/40 structure he shouldn’t even limp. In a 75/150 structure raising might be correct.




[ QUOTE ]

3. Player raises with split A’s two after the bring-in. A good player re-raises with a Q showing.
A. The player with split A’s should fold on 5th or earlier if unimproved.
B. Most players call through the River.

[/ QUOTE ]


So now I can just re-raise you every time no matter what I’m holding when you raise with an ace up, because you’re going to fold on 5th fearing trips?



[ QUOTE ]

4. The bring-in is a 2c, and 5 players fold. The Player has split K’s and he raises. The next player (a solid player) has a A showing and he re-raises. (I had asked this question in an earlier post).
A. The player with split K’s should fold on the spot. But he really shouldn’t be doing that too often otherwise a sharp player will make a play on him in these situations.
B. Most players call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Okay, depending on your opponent, folding might be best. I think most people have the aces in this spot. They’ll usually just call you if they can’t beat kings. Then again, this is probably not the case in a 75/150 game.


[ QUOTE ]

(I was in a 75/150 game with an A showing. The player to my left brought it in with a 2. Three players limped in with J, T and 9 showing, respectively. I raised with my split pair of A's. Everyone folded. Does this mean this is a bad game?)

[/ QUOTE ]



I think it means you should raise every time you have an ace up…

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]

3. Player raises with split A’s two after the bring-in. A good player re-raises with a Q showing.
A. The player with split A’s should fold on 5th or earlier if unimproved.
B. Most players call through the River.



[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[King Yao]

I've bitten off more than I can chew with all 4 situations right now. So I'm going to take them one at a time instead.

1. Player has split K’s. A decent player with split A’s raises two after the bring-in.
A. The player with split K’s should fold.
B. Most players call with split K’s.

I had assumed it was highly likely a player raising with an Ace showing, just two after the bring-in, would have a split pair of Aces. And if it is more than likely that he does, I don’t think Kings should be playing. However, Roland wrote “most players (decent or not) will complete with a lot of hands you can beat (like 3-flushes, buried queens, jacks or maybe even deuces).” This would change things.

So, let's assume the player with the Ace up will only raise with the following four type of hands (if this is a bad assumption, fire away):

AsQs2s – three spades – randomly occurs about 5.6% of the time
AsAc2d – split pair of Aces or trip Aces – randomly occurs about 8% of the time
AsQcQd – a pair in the hole from 7s thru Qs (I eliminated 2s thru 6s and Ks) – randomly occurs about 3% of the time
AsQcJd – two cards in the hole J or higher (should this be T or higher?) – about 2.4% (bringing it down a touch so we get a round number for the total) of the time.

That’s a total of 19% of the time this player will complete with an Ace up and two after the bring-in. That means there are 5 other players yet to act. What do you guys think about 19%? It feels about right to me from that spot. Some will clearly raise more often (with A22), some will limp in with drawing hands (As9s3s), so I think this is close to representative against a decent player.

So this means when the decent player two after the bring-in raises, he’s got these hands with these percentages of the time:
AsQs2s – 29.5% (I got this by 5.6% / 19%, won't show the work for the other hands)
AsAc2d – 42.1%
AsQcQd – 15.8%
AsQcJd – 12.6%


Against these 4 hands, KK3 will win this percentage of the time (numbers from twodimes.net)

AsQs2s – 63%
AsAc2d – 33%
AsQcQd – 58%
AsQcJd – 72%

So now the whole table shows:

Opp.’s Hand / Prob. KK will beat this hand / Prob. opponent has this hand
AsQs2s – 63% x 29.5%
AsAc2d – 33% x 42.1%
AsQcQd – 58% x 15.8%
AsQcJd – 72% x 12.6%

The total sum of the products is 50.7%.

This means against a player that plays the way assumed, the pair of Kings should win 50.7% of the time. Obviously this is just a cursory look, as I’m assuming its an all-in situation. But overall I think this should be fairly close if we assume neither can outplay the other in future rounds.

Against a player who often limps with an A showing in early position, maybe that means he’s more of a limper with 3 flush hands, and 3 high card hands, and pair with A up hands. Against those players, a raise would signify a split pair of Aces much more often, and against them, folding is best.

Against a player who raises with many more hands, such as with a hidden pair of 2s or AsTs9c, then the split pair of Kings has much greater equity in the hand and should definitely play the hand.

Against a player as described in the calculations above, it doesn’t’ matter what you do in the long run. You’ll just have some volatility. So if you want lower volatility then you should fold. If you feel like gambling with Zero EV (I have no problem with that!), then go ahead and play.

So, I am ready to change my answer to:


1. Player has split K’s. A decent player with split A’s raises two after the bring-in.
A. Call, raise or fold, it doesn't matter how you play against decent players who aren't too loose or too aggressive. ( in case you are wondering, I did a separate calculation which made me comfortable that raising and folding is about the same - I assumed the bring-in had a split pair of 2s, and saw the differences between knocking him out with a raise, or keeping him in with a call - all in all, it seemed a wash)
B. Since it doesn't matter, then those that play all the time are not making a mistake.

Of course, some of my assumptions may be wrong, or you may disagree with them (you, meaning the reader, not Roland specifically), in which case it would change the results.

[Biloxi]

[ QUOTE ]

3. Player raises with split A’s two after the bring-in. A good player re-raises with a Q showing.
A. The player with split A’s should fold on 5th or earlier if unimproved.
B. Most players call through the River.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is this considering there are no dead aces or queens? Depends on how the hand is played on 4th. Its hard to think about these situations without more details imo

[King Yao]

I'm assuming no dead cards for either Q or A.

I'm in the process of learning the game and trying to figure things out. I could easily change my mind with a good argument to the contrary.

[Jacob_Gilliam]

My biggest problem has been playing high pairs unimproved and playing hands such as split jacks on third when there are two or three overcards still to act. With the jacks situation, I complete almost every time, although i'm starting to feel as if this is a mistake.

[SittingBull]

yet to act,u do not want a re-raise from one of the higher overcard. Hence,just CALL..ALWAYS. If one overcard raises ,u can call one more bet,BUT U do NOT want to call TWO more bets-which is a good possibility. If U call and it's ONE more bet to U,U can call with LIVE J's. If it's TWO more bets to U after u limp,FOLD.

*Now if there is ONLT ONE overcard to UR J's ,RAISE. It's NOT too probable that the other overcard has a split PR of that overcard. U really would like to knock it out on 3rd.
If U are re-raise,go ahead and call . If U improve on 4th,and ur Oppo. rags out,go ahead and continue to play.
With 2 PRS.,drive it hard unless Oppo. PRS on board. Depending on pot odds and what u perceive your Oppo. to have,U will either FOLD OR CONTUE to play on 5th.
If U make a decision to continue on 5th,U generally must continue thru 7th UNLESS IT'S VERY OBVIOUS THAT U ARE BEAT.The pot is too large relative to the bet to fold at this point.
SittingBull

[Jacob_Gilliam]

The problem is that I play mostly micros (.50/1.00), and if I call, they call, and if I raise, they call. This is why I hae split jacks. Even if none of the overcards has me beat right now, they're staying with me, and with four to come for each of them if I don't improve I'll usually be behind by the river. I'm starting to give serious consideration to folding these hands on third when facing 3 overcards, maybe only 2.

[SittingBull]

be making a major error in the face of the LIVE "A".
HOWEVER,if UR Oppo. REALLY has split "A",then continuing to play beyond 5th is USUALLY a Mathematical catastrophe. It will USUALLY cost U too much money to continue in this spot.
EVEN if UR OPPo doesn't have a PR of A's,with 3 more cards to come,he can readily pr on a subsequent Str.. Hence, I tend to agree with King. It's just too dangerous to contiune on 5th in this spot.
Let's say U folded the BEST hand and U would have won. So what! If U are not bluffed occasionally,than U will NOT be a long-term winner.
SittingBull

[SittingBull]

u are giving up too much. Even if several players remain with u,u still should raise one overcard because u most likely have the best hand on 3rd. U are NOW betting/raising for value.
Sure,against a large field,u will most likely lose about 70% of the time. But remember,poker is not about winning the MOST pots--it's about MAXIMIZING ur wins.
The 30% of the time that u do win will MORE than offset your loses.--giving u a GREATER long-term prfit than if ur OPPS would fold on U.
This concept was introduced by Mike Caro. For A's,he recommends NOT trying to knock out players on 3rd. His advice IS correct.
I proposed the following question on this forum once: if I were selective about my 3rd Str. hand against a large field that is playing random cards,will I be able to beat the game if all players continued to play to the river?
Well,RayZee thought I was joking when I proposed this question.
He implied that I would slaughter the game.
SittingBull

[Andy B]

Many players raise with hands other than big pairs. So should you. People become particularly inclined to raise when they have an Ace in the door. For my part, I might raise with a three-flush, a pocket pair, AKQ, or even less. The more likely it is that someone is raising with a hand other than Aces, and the higher the ante, the more inclined you should be to play your big pair. If the guy just has to have Aces in order to raise, yes, you throw those Kings in the muck. I can count the number of players I know who are that reliable on the fingers of one hand.

There is a section of 7CS4AP that talks about this kind of scenario. I think that they actually use a pair of Queens in their example, but it doesn't matter. Assuming that there's a decent chance that the Ace is raising light, they have you re-raising to get it heads-up. If he has Aces, it doesn't cost you that much. If he doesn't have Aces, failing to re-raise costs you quite a bit.

Let's say you're up against someone who has read 7CS4AP. You raise with your split Aces, and he raises with a Queen. Even if the other guy hasn't read 7CS4AP, even if he doesn't know how to read, I don't think most $10/20 players necessarily need to have pocket Aces or rolled-up trips to make this kind of a raise. If you routinely fold Aces in this kind of scenario, you're asking to get run over.

In your last scenario, it should seem likely to the guy with the Ace that the guy with the King is stealing. If he is solid, and even if he isn't, his range of re-stealing hands should be pretty broad. Folding split Kings to a re-raise in this spot would be about as weak-tight as you can get.

[King Yao]

[ QUOTE ]
In your last scenario, it should seem likely to the guy with the Ace that the guy with the King is stealing. If he is solid, and even if he isn't, his range of re-stealing hands should be pretty broad. Folding split Kings to a re-raise in this spot would be about as weak-tight as you can get.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a different thread: Earlier Thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2408643&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1) in response to my question

[ QUOTE ]
What if you were the one with Queens, you completed the bet and get raised by a guy with an Ace showing.

[/ QUOTE ]

you wrote :

[ QUOTE ]
If you're the guy with the Queens, you should probably be folding more often than most folks do, including myself.


[/ QUOTE ]


I'm trying to reconcile these two situatins - it seems to me its a position thing, in one it was a stealing position, in the other position wasn't identified.

Whereas in the Kings and Aces situation, its more likely the A showing thinks the K showing is stealing, thus its more likely a re-raise by the Ace is a re-steal?

On the other hand, in the Queens vs Aces situation, I didn't mention anything about position.

[King Yao]

If you have time, can you take a look at this post I made regarding the 1st situation? First Situation Conclusion, it doesn't matter if you fold or play (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2513377&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1)

I concluded that it doesnt' matter if you play or fold in the first situation (you have split K's, an Ace raises two to the left of the bring-in). Are my assumptions on target?

[PoorLawyer]

what about when the Ace is simply on an ante steal with junk? I imagine at a game that high, there is often a raise from the highest card on the board as a steal attempt...

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]

I concluded that it doesnt' matter if you play or fold in the first situation (you have split K's, an Ace raises two to the left of the bring-in). Are my assumptions on target?

[/ QUOTE ]


I think it’s pretty funny you ended up with that 50% figure against this somewhat typical opponent – yep, stud hands run close in value. Note though that if you decide to play you’re not gambling with zero EV, since there is dead money in the pot.
Some more thoughts:
• Knowledge of your opponent is obviously the key here. If you have a good idea of what range of hands he could be raising with (considering the other up cards), you will know what to do with your kings
• One thing that can happen is that the ace folds on 4th or 5th street but you get to play heads-up against a weak player (I’ve found this happens quite frequently)
• If you sense he really has aces you can always fold if he makes an open pair but he can’t if you make one
• Some people can’t lay down aces even if you pair your door
• If you just call on 3rd, some people will keep betting into you with hands like a busted flush draw or a gutshot

On the other hand, it’s always risky to play, since he can always pair his ace later on (if he doesn’t have em). But poker is “a gambling game where your going to have to take a risk or two” (at least that’s what Mike says /images/graemlins/smirk.gif).

[Andy B]

When the Ace raises in front of you, his range of possible hands should be fairly broad. When you raise in front of the Ace, he should realize that it is fairly likely that you have a real hand, and he should have you beaten in order to re-raise a larger percentage of the time. I don't know what the percentages are, but let's say that in the first scenario in the post you're reading right now, you're about 50% to have the best hand, and in the second scenario, you're about 25% to have the best hand. Those are just guesses, but that's why you continue in the first scenario but not the second.

Now someone who knows that you'll fold split Queens when he re-raises is going to re-raise fairly liberally, but since most folks get married to big pairs, he should be slow to draw this conclusion (don't ever show anyone that you're capable of making folds like this). If you do find yourself folding to this kind of re-raise a few times in a session, you should probably call next time to prevent people from running over you.

Hope that helped.

[Andy B]

I'm not sure where you pulled those numbers from. I'll just point out that while most people will raise split Aces or pocket Queens about every time, not everyone is going to raise with the three-flush or (JQ)A (especially with a King behind him) every time.

If you are 50% to have the best hand, you should probably continue just because there are the antes and bring-in to fight over. There is a problem in that you're not going to know if he hits his kicker, but you should have position on him throughout the hand unless you improve.

[King Yao]

I tried to adjust for that being a low possibility by stating that the raiser is a decent player, and two to the left of the bring-in - so he has 5 players behind him. Is that enough to assume he's unlikely to be trying to steal from the blinds (he's a decent player) from that position (5 players yet to act)? I thought so, but maybe not.

[King Yao]

Let's start over....some of these situations are getting comingled, so they are getting confusing to myself.

From what I understand, you are suggesting the following plays:

1. You complete with split Q's. A decent player with an A showing re-raises. I did not mention anything about position so these two hands could be from any position. In a vaccuum, you suggest to fold (I understand auto-folding will screw you up in future hands versus this decent player, so you'll have to call sometimes).

2. The low card brings it in, 5 players fold (no Aces or Kings showing). You have split K's and you complete. A decent player with a A showing raises. Your suggestion (two posts ago), was that you can't fold because the player with the Ace showing can be trying to re-steal with many hands that K's are a fave against. Yet, in your previous post to this post, its unclear.

So, that's where my confusion is right now. Should these two situations be played differently (in a vaccuum, not all the time, due to game theory problems that a good player can inflict on you if you fold all the time) because of the position? In one, I didn't state the exact positions. In the other, I stated the positions as being from "steal territory".

Thanks

[King Yao]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure where you pulled those numbers from. I'll just point out that while most people will raise split Aces or pocket Queens about every time, not everyone is going to raise with the three-flush or (JQ)A (especially with a King behind him) every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

My experience in stud is limited, so my assumptions could very well be off. If you are saying many will not raise with a three-flush or (JQ)A, then that makes the argument for folding K's when an Ace raises (who is two to the left of the bring-in). If some wont' reaise with three-flush or JQA in early position, then that means when they do raise, its more likely they do have split A's...which means split K's is going to be enough of a dog to probably skip the hand.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
Is that enough to assume he's unlikely to be trying to steal from the blinds (he's a decent player) from that position (5 players yet to act)?

[/ QUOTE ]


Unless the game is extremely tight, yes.

[King Yao]

thanks for those thoughts - the 2nd one is most interesting (having a weak 3rd player being involved)...very interesting.

[Roland]

It’s also very profitable. I’ve seen it happen – ace raises, king re-raises, split deuces call $17 cold /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Bartholow]

Here's the thing:if all the decent players are going to fold any pair just because you raise with an A showing, then you can raise with a ton of ace-doorcard hands. Then the decent players figure it out and start playing back with other hands... So the question is where the equilibrium point is.

[King Yao]

I agree this game theory aspect would be the case in a table of 8 decent players. But is 8 decent players the norm? I was expecting the average table to have about 2 poor players. If it was 8 decent ones, surely some of them would soon pick up and leave, no?

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is that enough to assume he's unlikely to be trying to steal from the blinds (he's a decent player) from that position (5 players yet to act)?

[/ QUOTE ]


Unless the game is extremely tight, yes.

[/ QUOTE ]


On the other hand, many (not decent) players are going to be raising with complete crap if the game is only moderately tight.


7 Card Stud High ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Hero: 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/club.gif___brings-in___DISCONNECT
Seat 5: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif___completes
Seat 6: xx xx T/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds

4th Street - (3.00 SB)

Hero: 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
Seat 5: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets

5th Street - (2.00 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Seat 5: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif

6th Street - (2.00 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif
Seat 5: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

River - (2.00 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif xx
Seat 5: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif xx

Total pot: (2.00 BB)

Results:
Main Pot: $16 | Side Pot 1: $22.5 | Rake: $1.5

Seat 4: [ 9s 5c 2c 4c 5d Tc 5s ]

Seat 5: [ Jc 8c Ah 4d 6h 2d 7s ]

[BeerMoney]

Call 4th. Vag....

[Andy B]

The first scenario is a general case. Generally speaking, if you raise with a big pair and another player raises with an Ace in the door, you should lean heavily towards folding. I do this less than I should. Position and the other cards that are out should weigh in your decision.

In the second scenario, you specified that five people folded. That means that there are three players left--the King, the Ace, and the bring-in. If the King raises, it is fairly likely that he is on a steal. With the Ace behind him, he probably wouldn't do it with nothing underneath, but he's still going to be raising light a fair amount of the time. The Ace will therefore re-steal fairly often himself. In this case, the Kings should not fold if he has Kings.

If the original raiser is in a relatively early position, the guy with the Ace is going to be more inclined to give him credit for a real hand. While he might occasionally make it two bets with a smaller pocket pair or a three-flush, he's going to have Aces often enough that it isn't worth chasing. With both players in late position, the guy with the Kings is frequently going to have the best hand.

[bygmesterf]

[ QUOTE ]
I've bitten off more than I can chew with all 4 situations right now. So I'm going to take them one at a time instead.

1. Player has split K’s. A decent player with split A’s raises two after the bring-in.
A. The player with split K’s should fold.
B. Most players call with split K’s.

I had assumed it was highly likely a player raising with an Ace showing, just two after the bring-in, would have a split pair of Aces. And if it is more than likely that he does, I don’t think Kings should be playing. However, Roland wrote “most players (decent or not) will complete with a lot of hands you can beat (like 3-flushes, buried queens, jacks or maybe even deuces).” This would change things.

So, let's assume the player with the Ace up will only raise with the following four type of hands (if this is a bad assumption, fire away):

AsQs2s – three spades – randomly occurs about 5.6% of the time
AsAc2d – split pair of Aces or trip Aces – randomly occurs about 8% of the time
AsQcQd – a pair in the hole from 7s thru Qs (I eliminated 2s thru 6s and Ks) – randomly occurs about 3% of the time
AsQcJd – two cards in the hole J or higher (should this be T or higher?) – about 2.4% (bringing it down a touch so we get a round number for the total) of the time.

That’s a total of 19% of the time this player will complete with an Ace up and two after the bring-in. That means there are 5 other players yet to act. What do you guys think about 19%? It feels about right to me from that spot. Some will clearly raise more often (with A22), some will limp in with drawing hands (As9s3s), so I think this is close to representative against a decent player.

So this means when the decent player two after the bring-in raises, he’s got these hands with these percentages of the time:
AsQs2s – 29.5% (I got this by 5.6% / 19%, won't show the work for the other hands)
AsAc2d – 42.1%
AsQcQd – 15.8%
AsQcJd – 12.6%


Against these 4 hands, KK3 will win this percentage of the time (numbers from twodimes.net)

AsQs2s – 63%
AsAc2d – 33%
AsQcQd – 58%
AsQcJd – 72%

So now the whole table shows:

Opp.’s Hand / Prob. KK will beat this hand / Prob. opponent has this hand
AsQs2s – 63% x 29.5%
AsAc2d – 33% x 42.1%
AsQcQd – 58% x 15.8%
AsQcJd – 72% x 12.6%

The total sum of the products is 50.7%.

This means against a player that plays the way assumed, the pair of Kings should win 50.7% of the time. Obviously this is just a cursory look, as I’m assuming its an all-in situation. But overall I think this should be fairly close if we assume neither can outplay the other in future rounds.


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Which suggests that if you win 50.7% of the time heads up, the ante money in high ante game will make this profitable. In big stud game (I.e 30/60 or 40/80) all that ante money makes all sorts of marginal situations break even or better if the cards where rolled out. When you add in the increased playing effeciency of a good player, all sorts of things become profitable.

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Against a player who often limps with an A showing in early position, maybe that means he’s more of a limper with 3 flush hands, and 3 high card hands, and pair with A up hands. Against those players, a raise would signify a split pair of Aces much more often, and against them, folding is best.


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It may be best, but usually if its raised once on 3rd, you realy ought to see 5th street to make your decision. This suck in effect is insidious, and one of the reason's that it's really important to be aware of other people's habits on 3rd street.

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Against a player who raises with many more hands, such as with a hidden pair of 2s or AsTs9c, then the split pair of Kings has much greater equity in the hand and should definitely play the hand.


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You see this alot more in S/8 games. 7CSFAP has caused alot of people to become much more agressive than they were before it game out. In big stud game, you often just have to grin and bear it.

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Against a player as described in the calculations above, it doesn’t’ matter what you do in the long run. You’ll just have some volatility. So if you want lower volatility then you should fold. If you feel like gambling with Zero EV (I have no problem with that!), then go ahead and play.


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Oh NO, High varience Zero expectancy plays are very very important. You want to have an image of fearless wildman in big stud games. That means getting involved as much as possible. Anyways if I play better than my opponents I want to get as much involved, since I will make more profitable decisions than they will.

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So, I am ready to change my answer to:


1. Player has split K’s. A decent player with split A’s raises two after the bring-in.
A. Call, raise or fold, it doesn't matter how you play against decent players who aren't too loose or too aggressive. ( in case you are wondering, I did a separate calculation which made me comfortable that raising and folding is about the same - I assumed the bring-in had a split pair of 2s, and saw the differences between knocking him out with a raise, or keeping him in with a call - all in all, it seemed a wash)
B. Since it doesn't matter, then those that play all the time are not making a mistake.

Of course, some of my assumptions may be wrong, or you may disagree with them (you, meaning the reader, not Roland specifically), in which case it would change the results.

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Basicly, what this calls for is more data about the player invovled. As Mike Caro has noted, whenever a situation seems even, you need more data.

BTW Yao, if you are interested in doing a book on stud (that is not a reharsh of 7CSFAP), please please PM me.

[bygmesterf]

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My biggest problem has been playing high pairs unimproved and playing hands such as split jacks on third when there are two or three overcards still to act. With the jacks situation, I complete almost every time, although i'm starting to feel as if this is a mistake.

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It depends on how agressive the players with overcards are. The less agressive, the more I complete.

[bygmesterf]

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(I was in a 75/150 game with an A showing. The player to my left brought it in with a 2. Three players limped in with J, T and 9 showing, respectively. I raised with my split pair of A's. Everyone folded. Does this mean this is a bad game?)

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Your table image is awful.

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3. Player raises with split A’s two after the bring-in. A good player re-raises with a Q showing.
A. The player with split A’s should fold on 5th or earlier if unimproved.
B. Most players call through the River.


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Bahh, this is player dependent, QQQ is very rare. I don't fold aces before the river, unless my opponents board becomes too scary for comfort. Aces up often wins, and is very easy to make if you start with aces

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4. The bring-in is a 2c, and 5 players fold. The Player has split K’s and he raises. The next player (a solid player) has a A showing and he re-raises. (I had asked this question in an earlier post).
A. The player with split K’s should fold on the spot. But he really shouldn’t be doing that too often otherwise a sharp player will make a play on him in these situations.
B. Most players call.

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Because this is potential steal situation, everyone's playing standards are much weaker than they would normally be. KK is actully much stronger than normal in this spot. 3betting is could even be the right thing to do if the person with the A suspects you of stealing and would raise you light. You will have position though out the hand (K vs A hi board).

[Bartholow]

I think you should call 4th in that hand, although I usually don't call 3rd even vs. a known light raiser. In almost any form of (limit) poker, the worst thing to do vs a maniac is call with a speculative hand early and then give up easily.

Anyway, you've illustrated my point that a lot of players at the mid-limits seem to raise with a lot of ace hands. Others don't. I think the real answer to this split Ks vs. A-doorcard question is "it depends" on the player, even or ESPECIALLY against the "decent" ones.

[King Yao]

nt

[King Yao]

thanks for the comments. if i ever do a book on 7-Stud, it won't be until at least 2 years from now. clearly I don't know enough about the game, how people play, etc. to even think about that now. I imagine it would take at least 2 years of playing full time to get anywhre close to the level where writing a solid book would be worthwhile. At this point, I think of myself as a complete beginner in 7 Stud.