Need advice on PP SnGs... im losing my mind

[Python49]

Ok so when i first started playing PP about 3 months ago I had an in the money % of about 49 over 300 game span. I thought SnG was my bread and butter. I had built my bank roll up pretty nicely. The past 2 weeks however I have been running absolutely horrible in SnG and really need to hear from other good SnG players to figure out if theres something im doing wrong here.... so I have a few questions.

When do you guys start stealing blinds... i know this is a crucial aspect to the success in these SnGs... as it was the way i always won them before. I usually wait until blinds are 50/100. Is that about right? Also.... if the game is 6 way and you are UTG for example with A/10 suited... have 800 chips and blinds are 200... is this all in worthy? I did this and ran into AJs. Is your range of all in hands still wide open if you are one off the button? How many people behind you do you usually like to have if you're going all in with a marginal hand like J/10o? I just finished doing exactly 14 SnGs and I didn't even just push all in with any 2 cards because the i literally had been knocked out of like 10 tournies in a row doing that and running into AA, KK, AK, QQ, etc... so the last few tourneis i was in i get 66 on the button 4 way, all in after UTG folds.... BB has AA.. wtf? Another time i go all in on button with QJ suited, guy has JJ... I decide to defend my blind with a/9s and get outdrawn by KQs. I sware every time i tried to steal a blind someone picked me off.... id go the whole game just playing tight waiting for cards, have a nice chip stack of 1600 or so.. with blinds at 100/200, go all in once to try to pick up the blinds and someone calls with weak ace and flops trips.

Is this just horrible luck? Ive gotten 4th place like 20 times, 3rd maybe like 5 times and only 2 firsts.... when i used to eat these games alive. What the hell is going on... can someone please tell me their whole blind stealing strategy so i can compare to my own thinking? I always felt going all in from SB after all fold to you was proper play, yet i keep getting called and beat. Maybe im too scared to steal blinds earlier than that and its taking away from some chips that i could potentially be getting? When blinds are 50/100 and ive got 1000 chips.. i just fold crap like j/7 since id only pick up 150 chips from blinds anyway. When blinds are at 50/100 however, any raise i do.. i feel commits me, a simple 3x the bb is 300 chips.. which would be 30% of my stack that i dont want to fold. And if that 300 raise gets called... when i bet on flop (which i probably missed completely) ive committed myself to the pot, so i just go all in pre flop to avoid that. Literally every time i tried to steal, someone had a monster. I folded mid pockets UTG with 5-6 people left usually because too many people behind me to act who i felt would call. Ok enough rambling, I just would like some input here because im considering taking all this profit I have and quitting.

[Taraz]

Sounds like you're just in a really bad stretch. You asked a lot of questions and I'm no expert, but I'll try to answer as many as I remember.

I sometimes steal when the blinds are 25-50 if I know who I'm playing with, but usually level 4 (50/100) is about right.

I think in general people in this forum tend to endorse the idea that if you have less than 10 BB and you are raising, you should be pushing all-in for reasons you mentioned. If you have more than this I think pushing is kind of bad. I don't think there is any shame in folding to a reraise if you have 15 BB and opened for 3x the blinds.

With all that said, I also don't think you should be pushing and trying to steal and stuff just because you are at level 4. If you aren't at the bubble yet (when there are 4 people left, some people seem to think 5 left constitutes the bubble though), then I don't think you need to be pushing with QJs and JTo unless you know the blinds are weak or you don't have many chips left (5 or 6 BB seems about right). When there are 6 people left it seems like people are a lot more likely to call with worse hands at the lower levels. I think this is because they feel that they are far enough away from the money that they can't really sneak in by folding everything.

In sum, go here http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1918735&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1. Read everything there, it is truly an awesome compilation. Most of your questions are answered there in a lot of detail.

Hope my newbie two cents helps you out.

Taraz

[lehighguy]

What he said. I also recommend eastbays SnG power tool. Well worth the money. When you are wondering what to do with a certain hands you can program it in and get an EV calculation. I use it to practice during my off hours so I have certain situations memorized during multi-tabling.

More complex questions like preserving fold equity and when to wait out a short stack require a great deal more study.

[runner4life7]

I agree with both and recommend Eastbays program as well. In addition though maybe its me, but that 49% ITM sounds high, granted im at 51% on my latest 47 game run but that sample size is way to small, anyways I was always a believer in high 30s like 38 or 39 to be solid. With that many 4ths though, granted still seems like a small sample size, you are probably pushing when you shouldnt. Never push just because you feel like stealing, there is a mathematical reason to push. The A10 is a definate push with 4xBB, if you question that then you need to also have more confidence in your game. I've pushed into big blind havign AA or QQ so much lately but that happens.

[Blarg]

Sounds like just a bad run.

Sure could be one heck of a lot worse, though. You're at least bumping into bigger hands on a regular basis. I'm on a long run where I'm getting sucked out on in 3 out of 4 confrontations. At the very moment I was writing this, my AA just got sucked out by KJ-offsuit coldcalling my preflop raise in level one, then calling my all-in, for the rest of his nice stack, on a Kxx flop, and of course the board pairs on the turn and last card is a king, taking his hand from no pair to kings-full. This has been happening to me far more often than not, for almost a week. My ITM is ITT(In the Toilet), and my ROI is rocketing into the negative almost as if the heavens above were trying to prove a particularly nasty point over and over again until. God hates me this week.

Now, I've also run into a very fair share of better hands than my own too, which doesn't really bother me that much. That should be fairly easy for anyone to get over.

LOL, just took AQ all-in preflop against 72o, who got trip deuces. *sigh* This shyt is just not ending. It's kind of staggering; I can't even take time out to write a post without getting slaughtered consecutively. This is seriously nuts.

Holy crap, KK just held up! Ach, A6 just got beaten by
QT. Guess winning two in a row with the best starting hand is something for another day. Ack, AJ just ran into TT and got beat, and then AT just ran into QJo and got outdrawn. *sigh* WTF are people doing calling with any face card and then kicking my ass on the draw so often for. Ack I better beat it, this isn't helping my luck any LOL.

[Freudian]

Did you cash out recently? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Python49]

actually yes i did. I just got done going out 4th in another $100 SnG. I called someones all in with AA and the board 4 suited and he got a flush. I ended up coming back after that though and all of us had around 2200 chips or so 4 way. Everyone was stealing and it was a just a matter of time before someoen picked someone off. And yes you guessed it. I got picked off on the button after UTG folds. I had a/6 and he had JJ... another heart breaking 4th. And yes all these beats started when i cashed out $1000 to transfer to a rake back account i had made. The losing was all on eurobet and id make it back on party. Right now though im losing on party.

[lastchance]

Variance happens. Play within your bankroll, go to sleep, and don't go on tilt. Especially the "go to sleep" part.

[Python49]

lol blarg you're telling me man!! that sounds exactly like what ive been going through. For the past 2-3 weeks its been a roller coaster, up and down, up and down.. ive gone down $1000 and back up 6 times so far. And am back at the down. This is so much stress its made me want to quit. My bank roll is only 10k so losing 1k is like a kick in the nuts. Especially when im taking the exact types of beats you've described. Dude, KK vs K4 all in pre flop... quad 4s. Ive had so many people drawing to runners for flushes or straights for the past 2 weeks straight.. i didnt think it was possible for a losing streak to go on this long. Just this morning i had made back the $1000 and today I lost it again from losing all those SnGs. This advice is very useful though, i am going to try and focus and remain calm.

[runner4life7]

As hard as it is, you know the stats, and you know in the long run you are winning player and that it might even be better if they win once in a while so they stay around.

[Blarg]

Heh same with me. I seriously have never seen so many flushes in my life -- and they weren't mine. I'll probably have to play for months to see anywhere near as many flushes as I've seen in the last week or so.

I've always known how long the long run really is, but damn, it's hard not to let absurdly long successions of bad outcomes never fray your judgment or distort your play. It's one thing to comprehend wisdom or knowledge, and another to impeccably perform accordingly.