Turn problem in absurd game

[msk]

Hello. I am in my recently-found absurd game, 8-9 people stay passively for the flop, then things *might* heat up or get tricky on the turn or river. Last night, the game was really crazy: Two donators, played every hand, seemed to have no clue at all, raised sometimes with a pair against a board with 4 clubs for instance, etc. Losing many many $100's, mostly not to me. When when AA gets cracked, my KK gets cracked, etc etc. But so good I am still ahead.

Here's the problem -- I have AQo, raise preflop on the button, both idiots play on, 3 to see the flop. Flop is excellent, Q96o, first guy bets, second calls, I raise, no reraise. On the turn -- 4o - first guy bets again. Now this is interesting: I know neither one will fold. I expect not to get reraised (this is starting to sound like a Sklansky problem). With top pair, top kicker against two players who likely have random cards, should I raise or call. In other words, am I favored to win?

Results --- see below in this post
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One guy had a 9 and snared a 2 to go with his pocket 2 on the river, so he won with 2 pair, but this matters not at all, I just wonder on the odds of being ahead at the end.

Mark

[Ed Miller]

If you think that he would bet into you again on the turn with any pair.. then of course you should raise again on the turn. You are a big favorite.

[Ginogino]

msk:
Assume for the moment that neither of them has straight or flush draws. Assume also that each of you three holds different cards from the other two, and that each of you has a single pair going on the turn. The board is Q-9-6-4 rainbow. You have AQ (thus top pair, top kicker) Opponent 1 (O1) has 92o and Opponent 2 (O2) has J6. O1 has 5 outs (two 9's, 3 2's). O2 has 5 outs (two 6's, three J's). There are 42 unknown cards. If one of O1's 5 cards hits, you lose. If one of O2's 5 cards hits, you lose. If one of the other 32 cards hits on the river, you win.

Straight or flush outs for your opponents can reduce your chances, but if you're playing against folks who will stay with any 2 cards, this is a minor consideration overall and should hardly affect your play against this type of player. You'll win better than two hands in three in the long run (though sometimes that event occurs so frequently that it seems otherwise). Congratulate them when they win. You want them to feel good about the horrible mistakes they are making. And win they will from time to time. The fact that something is improbable means that in the long run it must occur eventually (makes one wonder about the nuclear plants whose operators say that the odds of anything going wrong is a million to one. That means something must go wrong someday).

Gino

[bad beetz]

many times when you are bet into on the turn after you raised the flop, you have to wonder why the hell they didn't try for a check/raise. It's usually cause they have a shitty hand and want to give you a change to fold. You can raise, and if you are, in fact, behind to two stupid pair, you have outs.