Good fold?

[kapw7]

One more from my last night .5/1 session. That was not so much fun. No reads on UTG. Loose PF and seems rather passive postflop.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP3 folds.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero folds.

My pattern mapper (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=micro&amp;Number=2502245&amp;F orum=,All_Forums,&amp;Words=&amp;Searchpage=0&amp;Limit=25&amp;Mai n=2502245&amp;Search=true&amp;where=&amp;Name=25700&amp;daterange= &amp;newerval=&amp;newertype=&amp;olderval=&amp;oldertype=&amp;bodypre v=#Post2502245) stayed silent.
Anyone would call here?
Final Pot: 8.25 BB

[iNsChris]

I'm a newbie... Heres my advice/opinion.

I think you would have lost, But don't make a habit of this Weak play.

you have 4(undiscounted outs) and are 10.5:1 hitting full house(2 or King) and taking the pot.

Implied odds over 10 are doubtfull though, Fold seems ok but verging on "Weak/Tight" maybe?

[Nick Royale]

Easy calldown. You'll be behind often here, but far from always. You almost have the odds to call the turn to draw and with the chance of being ahead it makes the calldown easy.

[iNsChris]

I'm a newbie.. So wondering..


You call down all the time with no reads?

Flush seems pretty much done and impied odds wouldnt get us 10:1 would they? Is it profitable? Although i spose we win when the guys bluff Occasionaly?

Fold is weak/Tight but looks ok in this case no?

[Womble]

I really cant see what villain would have apart from a flush (Ax /images/graemlins/spade.gif), although he may surprise you with 96 or some other junk.

Call the turn, this makes you call the river too

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy calldown. You'll be behind often here, but far from always. You almost have the odds to call the turn to draw and with the chance of being ahead it makes the calldown easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is my pot odds are 8.25:1 and If I decide to call down it becomes 9.25:2 and then I need to be correct 18% of times (a bit less b/c sometimes I'll make my full house). I don't have a lot of experience in 0.5/1 but I wouldn't expect to see a bluff check-raise 17% of times in this game.

[Womble]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy calldown. You'll be behind often here, but far from always. You almost have the odds to call the turn to draw and with the chance of being ahead it makes the calldown easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your pot odds are 8.25:1 and you have 4 clean outs to a full house. You can call the turn with implied odds to fill up /images/graemlins/smile.gif

If you call the turn and the river doesnt hit then you call since you may still have the best hand (although unlikely). I hate calling the river, it may be wrong, but I have to know /images/graemlins/frown.gif
The problem is my pot odds are 8.25:1 and If I decide to call down it becomes 9.25:2 and then I need to be correct 18% of times (a bit less b/c sometimes I'll make my full house). I don't have a lot of experience in 0.5/1 but I wouldn't expect to see a bluff check-raise 17% of times in this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]

Your pot odds are 8.25:1 and you have 4 clean outs to a full house. You can call the turn with implied odds to fill up /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Not 4 clean but close. He can still have a 2 in which case another 2 falling makes things very bad.
[ QUOTE ]

I hate calling the river, it may be wrong, but I have to know /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

That was what I thought. That I don't want to know with these odds and the scary check-raise. I would want to know if we were playing HU with a lot of more hands to come. But here what if you get your info and not get the chance to play any more hands against the guy?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
a bit less b/c sometimes I'll make my full house

[/ QUOTE ]
You'll make your full house ~9% of the time. Don't have to be good more than 10% of the time to justify a river call.

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is my pot odds are 8.25:1 and If I decide to call down it becomes 9.25:2 and then I need to be correct 18% of times

[/ QUOTE ]
This idea isn't correct. The implied odds almost justifys a turn call by itself. We need to make a +EV call aon the river to be able to call down. If we're ahead ~12% at the river we're definately making a +EV play by caling down.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold is weak/Tight but looks ok in this case no?

[/ QUOTE ]
A fold isn't terrible, but a call is better IMO.

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy calldown. You'll be behind often here, but far from always. You almost have the odds to call the turn to draw and with the chance of being ahead it makes the calldown easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is my pot odds are 8.25:1 and If I decide to call down it becomes 9.25:2 and then I need to be correct 18% of times (a bit less b/c sometimes I'll make my full house). I don't have a lot of experience in 0.5/1 but I wouldn't expect to see a bluff check-raise 17% of times in this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're counting the river bet in your odds when you don't REALLY have to...

If you're giving villain the flush so you have a draw. Count your outs again. 3 9's, 3 6's, 2 K's, 2 2's. If he has the flush you KNOW he doesn't have a 9 or 6, or a 2, so those outs are pretty clean. 8.25:1 is clearly enough for 10 outs.

I don't think this is even remotely close to a fold.

KO

Edit: Nevermind, I'm an idiot... 4 outs to the boat, still... yes this is a case where implied odds would push me into the call range.

[iNsChris]

Ok cool, I need to learn/Understand all these %'s.

I only use Pot odds/Implied: Odds to improve.
Then my Reads etc Justify call/Raise/Fold.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold is weak/Tight but looks ok in this case no?

[/ QUOTE ]
A fold isn't terrible, but a call is better IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a fold here is terrible. Where I play people will take this line with pairs smaller than your without a spade.

Krishan

[kapw7]

Good point. I'm glad I posted this. And the mathematics seem to be against my decision. I have 9% against a flush and 5% against the less likely 2x. Let's say that I outdraw 8% in which case I can win (at least) an extra 1BB. If we assume 10% of times he is bluffing (sometimes he wins with one spade if another one comes) then for 100 times we win 9.25 BB 10 times against a bluff, 10.25BB 90X0.08=7.2 times by outdrawing him and we lose 2 BB 90X0.0.92=82.8 times.
So for 100 hands:
10X9.25 + 7.2X10.25 + 82.8X(-2)=+0.7

Which is just about right. Is he bluffing 10%? It seems like a good number.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Good point. I'm glad I posted this. And the mathematics seem to be against my decision. I have 9% against a flush and 5% against the less likely 2x. Let's say that I outdraw 8% in which case I can win (at least) an extra 1BB. If we assume 10% of times he is bluffing (sometimes he wins with one spade if another one comes) then for 100 times we win 9.25 BB 10 times against a bluff, 10.25BB 90X0.08=7.2 times by outdrawing him and we lose 2 BB 90X0.0.92=82.8 times.
So for 100 hands:
10X9.25 + 7.2X10.25 + 82.8X(-2)=+0.7

[/ QUOTE ]

This is good except you discount the fact that you might be ahead. This swings the equation if it is a little as 4%.

Krishan

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're giving villain the flush so you have a draw. Count your outs again. 3 9's, 3 6's, 2 K's, 2 2's. If he has the flush you KNOW he doesn't have a 9 or 6, or a 2, so those outs are pretty clean. 8.25:1 is clearly enough for 10 outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

Except he has 4 outs, not 10. 9's and 6's will not beat a flush.

[Nick Royale]

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold is weak/Tight but looks ok in this case no?

[/ QUOTE ]
A fold isn't terrible, but a call is better IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a fold here is terrible. Where I play people will take this line with pairs smaller than your without a spade.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]
You play 5/10 6-max, right? A fold there is worse, even though I agree folding the turn here is clearly -EV (Edit: eh, compared to calling down, folding is always 0 EV /images/graemlins/smile.gif). Especially given the read.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good point. I'm glad I posted this. And the mathematics seem to be against my decision. I have 9% against a flush and 5% against the less likely 2x. Let's say that I outdraw 8% in which case I can win (at least) an extra 1BB. If we assume 10% of times he is bluffing (sometimes he wins with one spade if another one comes) then for 100 times we win 9.25 BB 10 times against a bluff, 10.25BB 90X0.08=7.2 times by outdrawing him and we lose 2 BB 90X0.0.92=82.8 times.
So for 100 hands:
10X9.25 + 7.2X10.25 + 82.8X(-2)=+0.7

[/ QUOTE ]

This is good except you discount the fact that you might be ahead. This swings the equation if it is a little as 4%.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]
I think his intention was that "he bluff/we are ahead" is counted in the 10% (10% is too low though).