Busted flush draw produces an interesting decision...

[ArturiusX]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (12 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero.....

I get the impression SB is a typical 1/2 (laggy, but not a massive LAG), and UTG is very passive.

What do you do?

[istewart]

Even given the read, check-raising the "field" on the turn is usually a sign that he's got something.

[Jakesta]

I don't get why you're betting the turn. You're almost certainly behind here. I don't think this is a value bet at all. I check-call the turn.

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get why you're betting the turn. You're almost certainly behind here. I don't think this is a value bet at all. I check-call the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[milesdyson]

Any other reads on SB? How has he played other hands?

I also don't like your turn bet.

IMO, he basically has you beaten here, and I don't think this is worth calling or raising.

[ArturiusX]

My equity: between 33 and 40% (might hit middle pair).

My share of the pot: 25%.

Every dollar that goes in = money for me. Plus, I lose money if no one bets this.

[Jakesta]

Your equity is not 40% anymore, because there is only one card left to come.

So how is this a bet for value?

[ArturiusX]

Keep in mind this is 6max.

[UncleSalty]

What world do you live in that you can count a possible draw to middle pair as part of your equity??

I think you are being overly optimistic. You need at least 4 opponents to make that turn bet profitable.

[i]Edit: Didn't notice the 6-max part of the hand..never mind...I suck at 6-max.

[istewart]

Your turn equity isn't 33% or 40%. Assiging ~3 outs (generous, often) to your queens/jacks combined gives you around 25% equity on the turn.

[milesdyson]

You got 3 callers on the flop and the board now paired.

You're way overestimating your equity and assuming your share of the bets is 25%, when you have no idea if you're getting raised or if people are folding to your bet. Say you bet and get one caller - 50% of the bets going in were yours.

Bet's no good. &lt;-- period.

[ArturiusX]

Why is betting the flop correct then?

[Maurader1]

fold on river
the c/r almost certainly means he has a 5, and even if he is being super agg with any A, he still has you beat
I like the turn bet, might just be folding KQ/KJ. Also, it the phrase "if you would call one bet, then you might as well bet" comes to mind, not sure if it is aplicable here

[Jaran]

2 cards to come gives you more equity.

-Jaran

[Maurader1]

If the board didn't pair, would a bet be correct?

[ArturiusX]

How? I dont get to see my cards for one bet.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
2 cards to come gives you more equity.

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah.


And I'm not even sure I would bet this flop. I kind of ignored that in my original post. You have the preflop raiser two behind you. When you bet, the guy next knows that the board is ace high and he has the preflop raiser behind him. I think this is way too likely to go bet, fold, raise, fold.

So now I don't like your flop bet either. How's that for some sickkkkkkkk apples? I should have seen that when I first posted.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2 cards to come gives you more equity.

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah.


And I'm not even sure I would bet this flop. I kind of ignored that in my original post. You have the preflop raiser two behind you. When you bet, the guy next knows that the board is ace high and he has the preflop raiser behind him. I think this is way too likely to go bet, fold, raise, fold.

So now I don't like your flop bet either. How's that for some sickkkkkkkk apples? I should have seen that when I first posted.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I don't bet this flop given the preflop action either. And betting the turn is pretty bad here.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
If the board didn't pair, would a bet be correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

If the board didn't pair, betting UI would be even less correct.

[Maurader1]

Why?

I'm thinking that if the board didn't pair, we are only behind an A on the river, but since the board paired, we are behind an A or 5.

Or is this a case of conditional probability, i.e. that since a 5 fell, then the chances that someone has a 5 is lowered?

Confused...please explain

[Isura]

Betting on the turn is a semi-bluff. We almost certainly don't have the best hand (King high beats us). For one, it's unlikely that anyone has a 5, since the only reasonable suck hands are A5 (less likely with A on board) or maybe K5. But if say a Ten comes on the turn, this has a greater chance of making someone a hand, or atleast a redraw. So when the board doesn't pair, our folding equity goes down even more, and the bet becomes closer to a value bet. But as already been discussed in this thread, there is really no value bet on the turn.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
Why?

I'm thinking that if the board didn't pair, we are only behind an A on the river, but since the board paired, we are behind an A or 5.

Or is this a case of conditional probability, i.e. that since a 5 fell, then the chances that someone has a 5 is lowered?

Confused...please explain

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting UI when the board isn't paired is less correct because when it isn't paired that means there is another card out there that someone could have paired which is now ahead of us. This is not really applicable to this hand however.

A situation for this would be when you have AK. You are "more" correct to bet into the field when the board is T355 than if it were T35J.

[detruncate]

[ QUOTE ]
How? I dont get to see my cards for one bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

In general terms:

You're staying to the river, and are therefore willing to call a bet or bets on the turn as necessary. This expense is expected to be compensated for by your equity (the share of the pot you expect to win long term). In other words, your effective odds are deemed to be sufficient to pay for your planned trip to the river in almost all situations.

When you pump your draw, you expect an immediate return in excess of your investment. This is added to the % of the pot you expect to win long term via equity, thereby increasing the value of your hand.

If you're going to fold the turn a lot, you obviously have to take that into account when you're deciding what sort of overlay you need on the flop -- this is another way of saying that you don't think your effective odds will justify going to the river, which in turn is another way of saying that the amount you have to put into the pot on the flop will only buy you a ticket to the turn, not the river. You therefore have to use your odds of making your hand on the turn + your chances of improving to a hand that will have odds to see the river (1st part of your backdoor draws) when you're deciding what sort of equity you actually have (and by extension, how many callers you need to have to bet/raise for value).

So, no... you don't get to see your cards for 1 bet, but your estimated turn investment is part of the equation that determines whether you'll have odds to see the river, and can therefore think in terms of equity with 2 cards to come rather than 1.

[detruncate]

I lean toward a fold. The only piece of the board that either of your Villain's can safely have is a pair of 9s.

I can fully see the turn c/r raise being a semi-bluff/bluff on a "scare card". I can also see UTG calling along with a draw, 9s, or a PP &lt; Q. But the probability of both being true is much less likely.

I don't really like the flop bet, though I don't hate it if UTG is very loose in addtion to being very passive. A check seems much better though.

I do hate the turn bet. Three opponents is too many to expect to take down the pot, and too few to bet for value -- even 15 outs would require everyone to call, and I seriously doubt you have 15 outs often enough to make this a longterm +EV bet.