Double Shootout Hand

[Schaefer]

I don't know if this belongs in STT or here. First table, Villain has been very active, playing and raising about a third of all hands, but hasn't gone bonkers preflop like this yet. What is his likely range here? Should I call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t1060)
Hero (t2480)
BB (t3040)
UTG (t1640)
MP1 (t1880)
MP2 (t2030)
CO (t1370)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t90</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t90, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t75, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t3000</font>, UTG folds, MP2 folds, Hero....

[woodguy]

What do you figure he has?

More than a few players just push AK out of the blinds like this, although you could make an argument for AA-TT as well, depending on the player.

Since I have to include AA-TT, as well as AK for my range of hands here, I lay it down since there is not quite enough dead $$$ in the middle to make it worth calling here.

I have JJ having 43% pot equity against that range.

I could just be a squeeze play by the BB with any two, but again, there really isn't enough $$$ in the middle to make it worth it.

I muck.

Regards,
Woodguy

[PrayingMantis]

I think this could be a rather close one, depending exactly on how crazy villain is, and if it's the first time he's going over the top like this. Against certain opponents I call this in a heartbeat, knowing I'll see AJ, TT, some weaker hands, enough of the time. Otherwise it becomes a fold, since players like to do this with AK/QQ (and even KK-AA) much more often than other hands, IMO, hoping for a loose call, and without the need to play tricky flops (especially with AK, QQ).

However, a reason to call here against loose enough players even if you're not sure it's significantly +EV, is the fact that it's practically winner takes all, and you will definitely need to gamble at some point (i.e, take a coin flip or two and win them), so why not do it now when there's a good chance you have your opponent drawing very thin.

[SossMan]

I do this sometimes if I have been really active, raising a lot of hands preflop and people generally laying down to my raises. If I pick up a monster I will push hoping to get a call from 99-JJ. It looks like a set up. I would probably muck, especially since he did this into an UTG raiser. If he does it again, though, I'm calling liberally.

[Atropos]

I think you are a good enough player to pass up this marginal +EV spot. I dont think you can exclude AA-QQ from his hand range here, that's why it's hard to profit much. The tourney is winner takes it all though which benefits aggressive play. Still I think this is a fold

[Schaefer]

You guys are smart.

I thought the guy was a decent but not great player and I think this play screams AK. Since it's winner take all I thought for a bit and decided to take the coin flip....except he had KK. I think saying his range is AA-TT and AK is actually too wide. Usually he'll have either AK or AA-KK and I really need to fold here. If I had a bit more info a case could be made for calling but I think I made a big mistake. Yesterday was my first day back in 2 months and I donked it up real bad. Hopefully I get better by next week /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[MLG]

JJ against a range of AA/KK/AK is about 40% so with dead money in the pot and a winner take all format this isnt a bad call, and your not making a big mistake either way. On the other hand make it AA/KK/QQ/AK and it is a clearly bad call. On the other other hand make it AA/KK/QQ/AK/AQ and its a clear call.

To sum it all up. In general: Yuck.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
To sum it all up. In general: Yuck.

[/ QUOTE ]

/agree with MLG. But since there is so little dead money in the pot, I think this is a pretty clear fold.

Basically, in general if I see an opponent do something totally out of character (the ONLY time they miniraise preflop in 50 hands... the ONLY time they make a massive overbet raise preflop in 50 hands, etc.) it probably means that they have a very narrow range, probably one that doesn't even include AK. So I just muck.

The caveat to this is if the blind structure dictates that they may have a reason to suddenly make a big variance in their play.

Though despite all that I don't think I would fold QQ here but it's close. JJ and AK yes. I have never folded KK preflop and I have no plans to start.

[Jason Strasser]

Man.

I tend to call this one much more than I fold it. I think you can include lower pairs like 66 and even worse maybe in a range of hands.

-Jason

[TaintedRogue]

This is tournament math that I don't know how to compute. I would also fold JJ here, but the decision would come from the seat of my pants, not the math.
I see six hands each of AA,KK,QQ. 16 ea of AK,AQ.
So preflop, I'm a 32/18 favorite to have the best hand before the flop. If I win 52% of those hands, I get the money about 17/32. If I win 8% of the times I'm facing an overpair, that's 1 more hand, maybe 2.
So, by my math, best case would win me 19 out of 50 hands, or 38%.
So it's an easy fold for me if I believe those are the only
hands he would bet that big preflop with.
Would you enlighten me on how to correctly do the math?
Thanks, Ken

[sfwusc]

AK and JJ are death traps /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

You want to call, but you have 83BB. Don't call...fold. You will find a better spot.

-SFWUSC

[MLG]

its not 8% against an overpair its 18-20%. the way to do the math is to multiply the size of the pots by the percentage of times you win against each type of hand, then by the percentage of time your up against each type of hand. then you add those two numbers together and see if that number is bigger than the stack you would have if you fold.

[slickpoppa]

Against AA-QQ, AK, and AQ, JJ is 42.6:57.4, or 1:1.35. If my math is correct, Hero is only getting 1.15:1 by calling. This seems like a pretty clear fold.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Against AA-QQ, AK, and AQ, JJ is 42.6:57.4, or 1:1.35. If my math is correct, Hero is only getting 1.15:1 by calling. This seems like a pretty clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's an easy fold if you know that's the range. But poker is not so simple, so I think those here who say that it's an easy fold are taking the easy road.


It can be an easy fold, or an easy call, or a close call or a close fold, depending on the read. We were told that villain was playing very aggressively: that doesn't mean it's necessarily a call here, but against certain maniacs' range, JJ could be a very significant favorite. Therefore, folding it could be a very big mistake. All I'm saying is that without being there you just can't say it's an easy fold, IMO.

Also, I don't agree with whoever said "AK and JJ are death traps". This is an extremely simplistic point of view, and it's true (maybe) only to complete beginners who don't know better.

[TaintedRogue]

Thank you MLG. As an exercise I took JJ v. AK, AA-QQ.
The blinds are 100-200 and everyone folds to JJ on the button, who makes it 600 to go. SB folds &amp; BB goes all-in, requiring JJ to put the rest of his stack (4400) in if he wants to see the flop. That puts 10.1K in the pot if I call.
I downloaded pokerstove and did the calculations for AA-QQ and AKs &amp; AKo and came up with 3187.07 chips.
So, I should fold here.
I also learned that, based on there being 5700 chips in the pot that I can win (my 600 bet the 100 blind &amp; BB 5K)and 3187 being the max that I should call, that I need 1.8:1 pot odds in order for it to be correct for me to call.
Considering the fact that I have no doubt that I have folded in situations where I was getting &gt;1.8:1, I've learned something that will help alot.....especially once I get done with the math on other situations.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against AA-QQ, AK, and AQ, JJ is 42.6:57.4, or 1:1.35. If my math is correct, Hero is only getting 1.15:1 by calling. This seems like a pretty clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's an easy fold if you know that's the range. But poker is not so simple, so I think those here who say that it's an easy fold are taking the easy road.


It can be an easy fold, or an easy call, or a close call or a close fold, depending on the read. We were told that villain was playing very aggressively: that doesn't mean it's necessarily a call here, but against certain maniacs' range, JJ could be a very significant favorite. Therefore, folding it could be a very big mistake. All I'm saying is that without being there you just can't say it's an easy fold, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was responding to MLG's comment that it is any easy call if the villains range is AA-QQ, AK-AQ.

[sfwusc]

Calling yourself all in when you have 83BB is stupid with anything other than AA or KK or maybe QQ. Unless you know he has a lower pair or undercards.

You are basicly saying I want a coin flip or worse b/c I think I cant outplay these people.

I would fold and outplay them.

-SFWUSC

[MLG]

yeah, your right, that was my bad.

[WSOPstar2B]

I appreciate the math formula mentioned by MLG. But where in hell do the percentages u plug into the formula come from? I can't do any of that math because I don't have a CLUE as to what percentages r to b used!

[MLG]

www.pokerstove.com (http://www.pokerstove.com) (by the way some of my math was wrongish in this thread).

[Chris Daddy Cool]

havent' read the other responses yet but i think this is a fold. not much dead money in the pot and a reraise from the blinds against an utg raise, your equity doesn't seem to be very good here. what range of hands is this? i think possible range of hands include AA/KK/QQ (probably being the most likely), along with AA/KK for the tightest of players and AA/KK/QQ/AK for a more typical opponent. however against any of these ranges your hand isn't in very good shape.

i vote for fold.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling yourself all in when you have 83BB is stupid with anything other than AA or KK or maybe QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stupid is talking about a hand without the proper context. Against certain opponents, folding JJ here is very stupid. This is not neccesarily the case here, but there's nothing stupid about making a significant +EV call if you have the relevant read on your opponent, especially since it's a winner takes all.

[ QUOTE ]
You are basicly saying I want a coin flip or worse b/c I think I cant outplay these people.

I would fold and outplay them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have a somewhat strange idea of what is "outplaying". Of course you don't want a "coin flip or worse" if that's your read. However, if your read of him is of a real maniac, it's a very easy call, whether you have 83BB or 22BB or 6BB. NOT CALLING in this case, is letting your opponents outplay you, and passing on a very significant egde.

You don't fold simply because you can "outplay" your opponents. You fold becasue you realize you don't have enough overlay here, which is probably the case vs. this particular villain in this spot.