Reraising with nut low on the river

[PokrLikeItsProse]

Here is a recent hand that I think I played well. The play is nine-handed at a 5/10 table. Sorry I don't have a hand converter.

UTG+2 raises. CO-1 calls with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/heart.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB calls with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I call with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif4/images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif in the BB. I didn't have a 25% chance against the range of hands I was up against, but it was sufficiently good enough to justify the discounted price from the big blind.

Flop comes 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB bets out. I just call with the nut low. The original raiser folds, probably holding A2, the last player calls.

The turn is the 6/images/graemlins/club.gif. I have the uncounterfeitable nut low. SB bets. He is known to bet his lows, so I just call, CO-1 raises with a likely full house. SB and I just call.

River is 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB strangely bets out. I call with the nut low, CO-1 raises. SB calls. It dawns on me that the SB is going for my overcall because he also has a full house (the best possible full house if we assume the original raiser had A2), or else he fears quads. If he were the type to bet out on the river with the nut low, he would have three-bet the turn, just as he would have done if he had both a boat and the nut low. I can eliminate the possibility that he flopped a set of fives, because he didn't reraise on the river with quads. So, I raise. CO-1 caps it, SB and I call. As the results stand, I take the low half of the pot by myself, while the other two players split the high as they both hold A6.

I think I earned some extra bets there where other players would have been overcautious because they feared getting quartered.

Comments?

[gergery]

I think you played it fine, but just happened to be lucky that they both had hands going for high.

The chances you're quartered need to be 66% or more before raising is bad for you.

The only hands they'll be betting that don't contain 23 are A6, A5, AA, 65, or maybe 246x type hand. If one of them has one of those hands, then some of those potential cards are gone (ie. if one has A6, then there are 1 6, 2 A and 2 5s left). But having 23 is certainly possible.

23 is dealt 9 ways since you have two of those cards. A6,A5,AA,65,246 are dealt a combined 25 or so ways. So of the potential 34 possible hands your put your opponents on, you need both opponents to have one of the 25 hands and not the 9 ways.

I also think it's slightly more likely CO1 has Ax not 23, but that either of them could easily have either 23 or Ax.

So net, after all the math and evaluating their hands, i think the math works out pretty closely as to whether you raise or not (ie. pretty close to EV neutral, but perhaps EV positive), and so I like the aggressive option in that instance.

--Greg

[PokrLikeItsProse]

The math is all and good, although you missed the slight possibility of them holding 55 or 66 for quads.

Have to add the psychology. I forgot to add that both players are smart enough to not raise with just the nut low in a three way pot for fear of being quartered. CO-1's raise clearly told me that he had a high hand. SB's betting out on the river felt like a ploy to hope that he could get two bets out of me. He was the type who could make that sort of play, but who was not creative enough to imagine the possibility of getting quartered for high with a boat or losing to a better full house. I also think that the SB would have been likely to three-bet on the flop if his hand had contained the nut low, while his play was more consistent with how he played when he flopped two pair than the nut low.

So, the way the hand was played, I think that both players were less likely to hold the nut low than would be mathematically expected. My main fear was that CO-1 was holding a boat plus the nut low.

[boscoboy]

IMO the wrap straight draw (esp with the 7) more than offsets the chance of being quartered