I think I'm tilting: Push checks?

[DasLeben]

I've been reviewing my HHs for the past few days, and have been noticing a disturbing trend. I'm coming off a bad run, and have had a phenomenal week. However, I think that I'm starting to get trigger shy because I don't want to start losing again. Thoughts on these hands? These are from $10+1s.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1610)
SB (t2250)
BB (t3595)
UTG (t545)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t450



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1760)
BB (t2100)
UTG (t3595)
Button (t545)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t450

[Nick B.]

I would fold both.

I might limp the second one.

[pergesu]

Both are easy pushes.

[yid3655]

imo first fold is correct - short stack will surely be all in on the BB and even if he doubles will have less then you

2nd hand is interesting. imo either a fold or all in. Calling would be weak here as it gives the BB all the encoragement he needs to move over the top and with your TJ you cant even think about calling. Again I would probably fold, blinds arnt too high but once again high enough to force the short stack all in soon enough /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[pergesu]

Blinds aren't too high? Hero has 5.5 BB. It's definitely worth picking up these pots.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds aren't too high? Hero has 5.5 BB. It's definitely worth picking up these pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

awful

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Blinds aren't too high? Hero has 5.5 BB. It's definitely worth picking up these pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

awful

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you play the Party 800 chip games? Do you understand ICM at all? Sure doesn't seem like it, because both of these are no-brainers.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Blinds aren't too high? Hero has 5.5 BB. It's definitely worth picking up these pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

awful

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you play the Party 800 chip games? Do you understand ICM at all? Sure doesn't seem like it, because both of these are no-brainers.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I have no idea what I am doing.

[The once and future king]

Hand 1: UTG (t545)

Hand 2: Button (t545)

BB300 in both spots.

Do you see now why these are not clear cut pushes.

Hand 1: Easy fold.

Hand2: Should probably fold, never the less sometimes I push
here.

[pergesu]

I think that's even more reason to push. The big stacks realize they don't need to gamble at all. They'll only call with big hands, which they won't get often enough. Picking up the blinds increases his stack by over 20% in each case. Not sure why people are so interested in passing that up.

[The once and future king]

$EV&gt;TC$EV

Also in the 11s dont expect calls that make sense. Especialy from stack x2 your chips (present in both cases).

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that's even more reason to push. The big stacks realize they don't need to gamble at all. They'll only call with big hands, which they won't get often enough. Picking up the blinds increases his stack by over 20% in each case. Not sure why people are so interested in passing that up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you should go find out why people are passing that up on the bubble. From your posting, it is clear that you don't know anything about bubble play.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that's even more reason to push. The big stacks realize they don't need to gamble at all. They'll only call with big hands, which they won't get often enough. Picking up the blinds increases his stack by over 20% in each case. Not sure why people are so interested in passing that up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you should go find out why people are passing that up on the bubble. From your posting, it is clear that you don't know anything about bubble play.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do I find out if people aren't willing to discuss it? I say increasing your stack 20% is worth it. You say "awful." How do I learn from that? I don't.

Here's why I push: I ran the hand through SNG PT. It says push. I do some ICM calcs by hand. They say push.

That's what I base my plays on - EV. If the ICM calcs say it's +EV, I go for it. It leads to higher variance, but greater reward. You've yet to back up any plays you suggest, so I can only believe they're based on, "Gee, I'd hate to be called with this hand."

The fact of the matter is that most of the time you won't get called in either of these two hands. When the likelihood of busting is small (last I checked, you can only bust when called), then taking a shot to increase your stack by 20% is worth it.

I just want to learn. I say what I would do for two reasons. First, because it's the best advice I can give. Second, so that others may say, "Hey perg, that advice sucks, and this is why...." and I end up learning something from it.

I've got no problem with anyone telling me my ideas suck. But at least provide some insight as to why they suck, so that I and others may learn from it.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]

I've got no problem with anyone telling me my ideas suck. But at least provide some insight as to why they suck, so that I and others may learn from it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear you.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[lastchance]

Thinking about it, I'm much more inclined to push hand 2 rather than hand 1.

In Hand 2, you're not going up against big stacks. In Hand 2, you're in SB, not Button, you're getting a better price, and BB's stack is much more in danger than Hand 1.

I think Hand 1 is a fold, but Hand 2 is a push.

[J-Lo]

I put hand 1 through ICM, and givin them average (A9+,77+) calling range gives a +.3% $EV. Also, A9+,77+ is quite tight for the regular $10+1er. I don't know about the $215's, but takin very marginal +EV situations should normally be passed up @ the $11's because you have a much bigger edge. Only push this hand if you are a loosing or break even player.

Hand 2: Unless the BB is TERRIBLY loose, which he shouldn't be, because of short stack, it is a CLEAR push. Only one person to go though, and he has to call you with Q9+ to make is -$EV.

[Matt R.]

I didn't do the calculations on these, but my instincts tell me to go with pergesu on this one. You have a big enough stack in both of these cases (= really good FE) where those yet to act after you should only be calling with premium hands. Of course, what they should be doing is quite a bit different than what they will do, so if I read them for being donks and expect to get called a lot I would fold and try to get ITM first.

[lastchance]

Can you run 55+, A8+, KQ and 44+, A7+, KJ+? Much obliged. That seems to be a reasonable calling range for your average $10+1.

[bobman0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that's even more reason to push. The big stacks realize they don't need to gamble at all. They'll only call with big hands, which they won't get often enough. Picking up the blinds increases his stack by over 20% in each case. Not sure why people are so interested in passing that up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you should go find out why people are passing that up on the bubble. From your posting, it is clear that you don't know anything about bubble play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've just started reading this forum, but I have to say, Nick, your posts are invariably unhelpful. I'm sure you're an excellent player, and maybe all of your one-line answers are correct, but they're still useless for the purposes of this forum. I would take one well-thought-out, wrong post that might actually help me think about the game over 10 correct yes or no answers.

[Seadood228]

Fold one, push 2. Reasons have already been stated. I might fold 2 if BB has shown a tendancy to call with a broad range. given his stack size, that doesn't seem to be the case.