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sfer
05-28-2005, 05:28 PM
Party 15/30

I raise UTG with K /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Very likely 2+2er (familiar handle, 16/11/2.18 3-bets after 3 folds. Folded to me and I call.

Flop is A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (10.6 BBs). I check and call.

Turn is the 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I check and call.

River is the 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I check.

thirddan
05-28-2005, 06:21 PM
what about leading the river, hoping that he will see your check/call check/call bet line as AJ/AT and raise you with AA/QQ/AK and you can 3bet?

twowords
05-28-2005, 06:22 PM
Good. Looks like you're likely behind on the flop and might as well pay the minimum with plenty of outs. Also, if he has the rarer loser here, JJ or TT, you would just love to keep him betting. With AK,AQ,AA,QQ, he'll never be able to resist that value bet on the end, although he's sure to check KK,JJ,TT.

Not much else to say, except that on autopilot I feel like I might check raise this flop or turn for no legitimate reason.

twowords
05-28-2005, 06:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
what about leading the river, hoping that he will see your check/call check/call bet line as AJ/AT and raise you with AA/QQ/AK and you can 3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh fun. 95% of TAGs in party 15 will be way too scared of the flush to raise though. Will this guy? And if he is good enough to see your line and raise here, won't he fold to a 3-bet with AK and AQ, assuming he knows you play well.

James282
05-28-2005, 06:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what about leading the river, hoping that he will see your check/call check/call bet line as AJ/AT and raise you with AA/QQ/AK and you can 3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh fun. 95% of TAGs in party 15 will be way too scared of the flush to raise though. Will this guy? And if he is good enough to see your line and raise here, won't he fold to a 3-bet with AK and AQ, assuming he knows you play well.

[/ QUOTE ]

AQ would never and should never fold. Comeon.
-James

goofball
05-28-2005, 07:15 PM
No one raises this river when you checkcall checkcal lead if they don't have a flush.

SA125
05-28-2005, 09:33 PM
Why risk missing a bet? If he has respect for you, he has to be wondering why you called the turn and may not like the prospect of losing 2 bets on a hand he wants to showdown.

sfer
05-30-2005, 12:33 PM
[ QUOTE ]
No one raises this river when you checkcall checkcal lead if they don't have a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

He might with the AK and the K/images/graemlins/heart.gif if we have a long history, but we don't and he doesn't.

sfer
05-30-2005, 12:35 PM
River goes check/bet/checkraise/call, he has middle set QQ.

sfer
05-30-2005, 12:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Why risk missing a bet? If he has respect for you, he has to be wondering why you called the turn and may not like the prospect of losing 2 bets on a hand he wants to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are two combinations of KK, many more combinations of AA/QQ/AK/AQ, and he probably doesn't bet the turn with JJ/TT

Nate tha' Great
05-30-2005, 12:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]
No one raises this river when you checkcall checkcal lead if they don't have a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd probably raise the river with a set as this line from a 2+2er is more likely to be a weakly-played ace than a flush.

The really sexy play would be to raise and fold to a 3-bet, but raising might well be the best play even if you "had" to call a 3-bet.