Hand from the Orleans

[Irieguy]

This was a final table hand from a live multi:

Ante: 500, Blinds 1500/3000. 8 players left, chip counts approximate.

SB (55,000)
BB Hero (38,000)
UTG (7000)
UTG+1 (70,000)
MP1 (20,000)
MP2 (15,000)
CO (25,000)
Button (20,000)

UTG goes all-in for her last 7000 and UTG+1 calls. UTG+1 is trying to be loose-aggressive with his stack, but he's easy to control and easy to read. He calls and it's clear that he doesn't want to put any more chips into this pot preflop.

Everybody folds to the BB Hero who has 6s7s.

There's 22,500 chips in the pot and it's 4,000 to call.

Payouts:
1st: $5k
2nd: $3K
3rd: $1,800
4th: $1,400
5th: $1,200
6th: $950
7th: $750
8th: $650


What to do?


Irieguy

[BDarch]

I would reraise all in because you can then eliminate UTG+1 and it gives you plenty of dead money in the pot for a chance to outdraw UTG

[SuitedSixes]

Plan A)
Normal tournament "etiquette" is that you call and check down with UTG+1 to eliminate UTG, but I'm guessing that's not what you're looking for here. If I am confident that I can out play UTG+1 post flop, I'm going to call and see if I can't get some more chips out him while UTG is eliminated.

Plan B)
If everybody is wanting to make a deal, I'd keep saying stuff like "why would I want to make a deal with you clowns, you have no chance... I'm double barrelling Heinekens and pwning you all BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!"

Then, once we get down to 3 players and I'm toasted to the point where I can barely see the board anymore, and they start begging for a deal I'd finally I say "Ok, we'll split it even on one condition: You guys HAVE to go to the strip club with me afterwards and we all have to go to the VIP room." Then, we'd all go to Jaguars.

But you'd probably do something different.

[oxymoron]

You have a good read on him so I would call and outplay him on the flop.

[microbet]

How likely are you to extract any money from big stack if you hit your hand? Doesn't sound too likely. Given that and the fact that you are pretty sure he/she folds to a preflop push, why not push and give yourself the best chance at winning the same amount of chips as if you had called for the same price?

Also, with 67s you are very unlikely to beat shorty if you don't improve at all so there isn't much use in a stone cold bluff after the flop.

[johnnybeef]

i think this is a clearcut raise...heres why: you are getting 6:1 on your call and with a suited connector you will never be that big of a dog. furthermore, if the big stack calls your raise, you will be able to outplay him later in the hand.

edit: oops 6:1 was on the call....even still i like a min raise if you are that confident that he will not come over top of you.

[BDarch]

[ QUOTE ]
oops 6:1 was on the call....even still i like a min raise if you are that confident that he will not come over top of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

for that reason I think its best to push since you put maximum pressure on him and are almost certain he will fold.

[Matt R.]

Hrmm, I think this decision is tougher than what it appears to be at first -- I originally thought it was an easy call but I'm not so sure. Your implied odds with a mid-suited connector are non-existent since you only have 12-13 BB's left in your stack. However, your current pot odds are fantastic so you definitely can't fold. After thinking about it more, and given your confidence in your read that UTG+1 won't put any more money in, I think a push is in order with the dead money in the pot. If a 6 or a 7 flops I wouldn't feel comfortable putting more money in (given the shortness of your stack) on most flops, so a pre-flop push would feel safer. You'd have to check fold most flops anyway. I think the big drawback is showing UTG+1 and the rest of the table you're willing to make this play with 67s. They're going to be a lot more willing to call you later on, and with the blinds this high I don't think you want that. Great post, the hand didn't look that interesting at first glance.

[valenzuela]

this is directed to everyone:
Im not sure Irie wants the image of a guy who re-raises all-in with 76s so I would fold. Of course I might be wrong since Im preety much clueless when it comes to anything thats not a party SNG.

[Matt R.]

I agree that this is the problem with re-raising all-in. However, the size of the pot relative to Irie's stack size is huge and the blinds aren't going down anytime soon, so if you're going to make a move like this I think this is the perfect time. I just really don't like the option of calling here when you know you're going to have to fold most flops (and betting when you do catch a pair with this short of a stack is really risky).

[oxymoron]

Oops I thought hero had 55k in chips. I think pushing or folding is best. I would push.

[valenzuela]

oh irie, whats the buy-in? just curious.

[microbet]

As far as image goes, it could be good to preserve a tight image, but there is value in an aggressive image too. People will fold to your BB and will be afraid to make small raises at you. You will be more likely to be paid off when you have a big hand and more likely to see cheap cards when you don't.

Whether it is more +$EV to preserve you image here depends on how aggressive the rest of the table is and if they are letting you be the first one in the pot in late position.

[Matt R.]

I really hate pushing the big stack out of this hand. He may have the short stack beat here (and Irie clearly doesn't), and by taking him out of the hand here the result is going to be tripling up the short stack a majority of the time. I'm changing my vote to call (temporarily; I might have to change it again) and see a flop. It will greatly increase the chance of busting the short stack, and maybe big stack will be nice enough to check it down even if you don't like the flop. Given Irie's read of him, this possibility doesn't seem too far-fetched -- that he'll check it down even with a decent hand. I'm interested to hear what others think.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Payouts:
1st: $5k
2nd: $3K
3rd: $1,800
4th: $1,400
5th: $1,200
6th: $950
7th: $750
8th: $650


[/ QUOTE ]

[SlackerMcFly]

I'd be interested to know how/when she got short-stacked. If she had folded the last five hands, most likely her all-in here indicates strength to me. If she just lost most of her chips the last hand or so, then she holds any two.

Pot odds are great here, but either one of them has you dominated 61.5% of the time (but I'm not good at math). I fold and let her double up through UTG+1 with her AKc, then rake off her BB next hand to even up.

Either that, or tell her you will fold if she gives you a lap-dance right then and there. Given the number of Heinekens consumed it wouldn't matter to you at that point if she were Phyllis Diller....... Cheaper than Jaguars.

Slacker - Who lives in a pineapple under the sea.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

UTG goes all-in for her last 7000 and UTG+1 calls. UTG+1 is trying to be loose-aggressive with his stack, but he's easy to control and easy to read. He calls and it's clear that he doesn't want to put any more chips into this pot preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given this read, I most likely push right here. As somebody else pointed out, if the big stack is playing somewhat tentatively, it doesn't seem like we're necessarily that likely to extract high value from him if we make a hand postflop. UTG is probably pushing with anything better than average. I think hero is likely to be a 60-40 dog to this range, which is good enough to make this worthwhile since Hero is really only paying 4000 to win 18.5, assuming UTG+1 will fold.

The major concern with this play, to my mind, is that it looks horrendous to have to show down 76s here after this move. It really puts a dent in your credibility that might make it hard to run over the table afterwards. I would need to think about how I was likely to be perceived by my opponents afterward. If this makes it harder for me to steal with crap later, then the gain might not be worth it. But it looks like a pretty high +EV spot to push.

[schilling38]

given your read on UTG+1, I think he'll shy away from confronting with you unless he has AA or KK.

I say push.

[valenzuela]

with those stacks no way Big stack folds QQ or AK. He will prolly call with soemthing like 77 .

[Matt R.]

I'm going back to saying push! Who cares if you triple up the short stack? It's not like you're close to busting out and the pay difference between 7th and 8th is really small. You have a lot of equity versus the SS's pushing range, and you pretty much know big stack will fold. Even though you're probably behind (ok definitely), I think this is too good of a chance to accumulate chips and shoot for first. It's a clear push /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[microbet]

Given the payout structure, I don't see much value in busting out the shortstack. I think I just want cheap chips.

edit: posted before I saw your retraction

[JoeTable]

Personally, I hate pushing here. You are 3rd in chips, and there is no need to get stupid at this point. You are risking $5k vs. $650 on 67s. Let me say that again...you are going to risk $5k vs. $650 on 67s. Late inning poker likes big cards that can possibly win unimproved. Particularly when you're all in. The pot odds are very good for a call here and the two can check it down. I don't even like trying to outplay the opponent on the flop for two reasons. One, if the flop hits you, you don't have to outplay him. You can simply make your usual value bets and collect. Two, if you the flop doesn't hit you, you don't stand to gain much, if any at all, by outplaying him, because you're most certainly beat by the UTG opponent.

Call and check it down if the flop misses you (or fold if UTG + 1 bets). Call and bet if it hits you.

[microbet]

You are not risking $5k. You are risking something like a 20% shot at $5k.

[Matt R.]

I keep wavering on my decision, so despite what I say I definitely think it's close. I don't like this line because your 67s simply won't be worth anything on most flops. Even the 1 out of 3 times you flop a pair there will be 1 or 2 scary overcards. I don't recall the exact odds for flopping 2 pair or better, but it's small enough to be irrelevant. The idea of calling and value betting your pairs would be great if you had enough chips to attempt value betting a pair of 6's. With only 12 BB's though, what if you catch your 6 or 7, value bet (which would amount to 1/3 of your chips), then get raised with 2 overcards on the flop? I think calling is too risky if you plan to bet with just your medium pair. The push is definitely risky too, but Irie seems pretty confident in his read that UTG+1 will fold to his push so I like this opportunity to try and accumulate chips. My feeling is that this is the type of play you have to make to win tournaments, given the current size of the blinds and the pot odds you're getting.

[raptor517]

oh gad please dont tell me you folded.. holla

[The Yugoslavian]

Given your read...I think you push here. I don't think you'll extract value from big stack b/c he's probably only playing the hand if he hits, and you'll have to hit it very hard to be ahead at that point.

I'd guess the big stack thinks it's his responsibility to call here but as you said, doesn't want to risk becoming short with a non-premium hand.

What will the table seeing 76s push do to your table image? Will they suddenly try to call you with anything? Will they be very afraid and cow to you b/c you're a manaic and they just want to survive?

Yugoslav

[valenzuela]

maybe the Big stack had a monster...My guess is irie pushed , the short stack had AT, the big stack JJ, nobody improved and Irie went home with seventh place

[Gramps]

If you push, everyone will see your hand given the all-in player. So much for stealing credibility (which it looks like you're going to want later on).

Since there's a good chance that if you flop a draw you'll see the Turn/River for free (unless you read UTG+1 as the type of loose aggressive fool to bluff with no side pot), why not just call given those juicy odds. By pushing, you really don't increase your odds of winning the chips in the pot by that much (what range do you put UTG on and how does 76s do against it vs. UTG & UTG+1 being in pot?), and your image being shot may cost you later, as it looks like you're going to have to do some stealing as the blinds continue to escalate.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
oops 6:1 was on the call....even still i like a min raise if you are that confident that he will not come over top of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

for that reason I think its best to push since you put maximum pressure on him and are almost certain he will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


irie said that this guy is his son...in live play this means a lot...that being said id push online.

[Matt R.]

Putting both other players in the pot on reasonable hand ranges, I'd say forcing the big stack out of the pot increases your equity by a good 10% or so. That's about a 2,250 chip increase in expectation. I don't think the effect on your image will be too devastating. I just wouldn't push a hand like 76s for awhile, and with the game being 8 handed you can afford to be patient.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
He calls and it's clear that he doesn't want to put any more chips into this pot preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With this read it's an obvious push, unless this means that he will call you and not be happy about it.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
That's about a 2,250 chip increase in expectation. I don't think the effect on your image will be too devastating

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG is eliminated this hand, there will be 8,000 in the pot next hand. Next level of blinds, that will increase signficantly and continue to do so. 12,000, 16,000, 24,000, and so on (or whatever the numbers are - depending on what the blind increases are exactly/how many players are left to ante).

So, when Hero pushes his 76s over UTG and UTG+1, the players at the table will see that:

(a) Hero risked all his chips over the top of a "loose aggressive player" with a pretty garbage hand; and

(b) in order to win any chips on this hand, Hero still had to outdraw UTG (who likely is a pretty good favorite), yet this didn't stop him from putting his entire tourney life on the line.

Hero is probably going to be short stacked enough later on to have to push all-in to steal blinds/antes. Suppose you're a player in the BB (or behind Hero) with a pretty good hand, wondering whether Hero is likely to be pushing a wide range including semi-garbage, or whether he only pushes good hands. Stuck in your mind is the 76s hand. You call instead of folding, and instead of stealing blinds without a showdown, Hero has to suck out to stay alive.

The above doesn't have to happen very often for the 76s all-in play to not be worth it.

[Unarmed]

I completely agree. But as Yugo sort of pointed out, showing 76s here will definitely reduce the amount of people trying to steal Irie's blinds, and I'm not real sure how much their push calling standards will widen out. Even if they know Irie may be ramming trash, its still a tough call to make with a less than premium hand at this point in the tournament.

[Matt R.]

Agreed about the increased likelihood you'll be called in the immediate future. I just think you need to limit your blind steals to situations where you figure to have the best hand to combat this problem -- e.g. pushing moderately strong aces from the button/SB or strong K's, etc. That way you figure to be a favorite if called (actually, a side benefit of your newfound loose image). I think our difference of opinion is in that you think hero's going to be short stacked enough later on to be forced to push trash to survive. He may be, but at that point people will know he's being forced to push trash anyway, and will adjust regardless of the 67s hand.

As you said, "Suppose you're a player in the BB (or behind Hero) with a pretty good hand." To use your image to your advantage, just push better than "pretty good hands", so if you're called you're in good shape.

[Gramps]

I agree that it might decrease the blind steals a little bit ("that guy's kind of crazy"), but he did nothing to show that he's a loose caller necessarily - just that he's willing to push with a crap hand with not much gain (on average). Unless the big stacks at the table are kind of clueless, I don't think they'll be stopped from running over Irie's blinds - and the short stacks will probably make their stands when they pick up a hand, wherever that is.

Occasionally those aggressive plays even have the opposite effect - you make a "macho-looking" play at a loose aggressive big stack showing him no respect, now he's out to make plays at you in particular. Not only is he not laying off your blinds, he's attacking you more often.

My opinion is that pushing 76s here is a pretty clear-cut case of FPS.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
My opinion is that pushing 76s here is a pretty clear-cut case of FPS.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling may be the right play, but I think it is fancier than pushing.

[AA suited]

i read utg as desparate since she's posting next. I put her on a hand that's better than top 50%. ie: jt, q8+, any king, any ace, any pair

In a 50+5, i would just call, and check/fold to river if i dont catch any piece of the board.

Why in the world do you want utg+1 out? it's twice the chance to eliminate the short stack.

WHAT AM I MISSING HERE??? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[lastchance]

Why in the world do you want UTG to go broke? I mean, obviously you do want UTG to go broke, but it's simply not worth consideration when you're trying to pick up chips. Flat payout, you're 8-handed. Right now, getting more Chip EV is certainly worth letting UTG get more EV too.

If UTG+1 folds this 90% of the time, I think I'm pushing, I don't think it's close.

[The Yugoslavian]

Gramps....I'm confident Irie would adjust correctly to whatever change in his image results. However, it is very difficult for any of us to figure out exactly what the table image will be of him if he ends up showing this hand down.

Irie plays at the Orleans quite a bit...he may even already hae played with a few of his opponents. Furthermore, the only time I played there I swear that the maniacs had a better image than the tight guys....people were calling based on their cards, not on their image of you. However, everyone was hesitant to push into a maniacal big stack or stack that was sucking out every which way recently...

I think if Irie shows this it actually *could* have the potential to give him a more fearsome image.

I'd love to know what Irie thinks about that aspect of this situation. I think that should be the governing factor. I don't really like calling....much at all.

Yugoslav

[Seadood228]

I don't like a push here. You lose all stealing credibility on a hand that you are probably in the 30-40% range. Taking UTG+1 out of the equation adds little equity here, because there's also a good chance you'll get some free cards from UTG+1.

Pushing risks too much to gain too little IMO since you have to make a hand to win anyway.

[Seadood228]

Guess I should have read Gramps' post before putting my 2c in. Well said.

[Seadood228]

I don't think it reduces his chances of having his blinds knicked. Let's not give these Orleans daily players too much credit now. From the tourneys I've played there, they are more than happy to go into a hand as the favorite no matter how small. I really think this move hurts Irie's image, if he has any at this point.

[Seadood228]

I agree that you shouldn't worry about UTG, but do you think 7 high is going to beat UTG unimproved? You are going to have to make a hand here, and even with UTG playing, there's a good chance you'll get to see all 5 board cards to do so.

I still don't get it.

[Irieguy]

Me and Zen played last night and had 50% of each other. Zen was the Hero and I was sweating behind him, looking at his cards.

Here's why this hand is interesting in my opinion:

When you are playing in a live action tourney at a final table, you don't have a lot of time to thoroughly analyze situations. You must have instincts which hold up to post hoc analysis if you want to be a consistent winner.

This is not an easy push for 99% of the poker playing world. It's not even an easy push for many reasonably skilled multi-table tourney players. But this is a blind:stack ratio game theory problem and in light of the payout structure it's a very, very clear push.

I felt it was a push with any two, and fortunately Zen knew it too. He pushed, the big stack folded the best hand, and hero won when his 7 paired. He went on to win the tourney, and this hand was the biggest reason why.

The take home point is that this forum is fantastic with regard to short-stack game theory (if you listen to the right people.) The reason why this push was relatively easy for Zen is because he reads this forum everyday. Most people, even good multi table players, would not find this an easy decision. That means that in the heat of battle they would be likely to miss this opportunity.

As far as the image concerns... well, the table was bewildered to say the least. But Zen was still able to pwn them at will and continue to force bad folds for the reasons that Yugo alluded to.

Irieguy

[Matt R.]

[ QUOTE ]
there's a good chance you'll get to see all 5 board cards to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably true, but maybe not. If he catches his top pair, he's going to bet to protect his hand. Your pair of 7's isn't looking so good with an ace on board and you being bet into. With him gone, you get to see all 5 cards no matter what the board is, and your overall pot equity increases by a good 10% (my estimate, but I think it's a good one). Of course 7 high isn't going to win unimproved, but your chances of 67s being good by the end improve quite a bit if UTG+1 isn't around.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Plan A)
Normal tournament "etiquette" is that you call and check down with UTG+1 to eliminate UTG, but I'm guessing that's not what you're looking for here. If I am confident that I can out play UTG+1 post flop, I'm going to call and see if I can't get some more chips out him while UTG is eliminated.

Plan B)
If everybody is wanting to make a deal, I'd keep saying stuff like "why would I want to make a deal with you clowns, you have no chance... I'm double barrelling Heinekens and pwning you all BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!"

Then, once we get down to 3 players and I'm toasted to the point where I can barely see the board anymore, and they start begging for a deal I'd finally I say "Ok, we'll split it even on one condition: You guys HAVE to go to the strip club with me afterwards and we all have to go to the VIP room." Then, we'd all go to Jaguars.

But you'd probably do something different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plan A sucks.

Plan B sounds about right... but Zen was in charge this time so we got the cash instead.

Irieguy

[Seadood228]

I need more proof Irie /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I still don't get it. Sure the results worked out in hero's favor, but how often is that going to happen?

In order for this play to be worthwhile hero has to outcard UTG and lose to UTG+1, plus UTG+1 can't have been calling UTGs push with a monster. How often is this going to happen? This looks like a case where the result makes the play look correct, when in all actuality the result witnessed occurs rather infrequently.

[lastchance]

You're getting 5:1 on the pot if UTG+2 folds. This is certainly much better than seeing a flop.

76s outdraws AA more than 4:1 of the time.
76s is better than 3:1 against AA-JJ, AK.
76s is 2:1 against AA-77, AK-AT, KQ.
Against a reasonable range (22+, A2+, K9+, QJ), 76s is about 38%

After that, it doesn't improve much, but you're +Chip EV if UTG+2 folds when your opponent has just AA. It's huge +Chip EV for Irie/his friend to fold UTG+2.

76s is going to improve a lot of the time to outdraw UTG. Anyone who plays SNG's knows that.

[Matt R.]

[ QUOTE ]
In order for this play to be worthwhile hero has to outcard UTG and lose to UTG+1, plus UTG+1 can't have been calling UTGs push with a monster

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost true. However, if you push, you don't have to worry about whether you win/lose to UTG+1 or not. There are situations where you could flop a straight or flush draw, yet not be able to call a bet by UTG+1, yet you'd improve to the best hand by the river. You're assuming that you'll always get to a showdown if you just call, which isn't the case.

As far as your other arguments are concerned (UTG+1 calling with a monster), this is factored in by Irie's read and is included in your pot equity calculations -- it could happen, but the vast majority of the time he won't have it and these times more than make up for the times he has something like AA.

[ QUOTE ]
Sure the results worked out in hero's favor, but how often is that going to happen

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it will happen more than enough to make this play profitable in the long run.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

This looks like a case where the result makes the play look correct, when in all actuality the result witnessed occurs rather infrequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

The results have nothing to do with anything except how many lap dances I got that night. That fact that you can infer that from my post means that you haven't paid attention to anything I've ever written.

As far as the witnessed results occuring "rather infrequently," you must have made this statement without thinking much first. How does 6s7s do against 2 opponents with whatever hand range you want to put them on? Exactly how infrequently will you win against a single opponent? How significantly does eliminating the 3rd opponent affect your likelihood of winning?

Then consider that if you push, it will cost you 4000 chips to have approximately a 40% chance of winning a 26,500 pot with almost no risk of being eliminated.

Irieguy

[Seadood228]

Thanks for the input guys, you are clearly right.

I ran the numbers giving UTG a broad range of hands and UTG+1 a fairly tight range. The average pot equity increase by getting rid of UTG+1 came to be just shy of 15%, which is huge, especially considering Irie's read on UTG+1 not being strong enough to handle a push.

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 is trying to be loose-aggressive with his stack, but he's easy to control and easy to read. He calls and it's clear that he doesn't want to put any more chips into this pot preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement alone makes it a automatic push with any two.

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a case where the result makes the play look correct, when in all actuality the result witnessed occurs rather infrequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was poorly worded and obviously a false statement. Please accept my apology. I feel like such a jackass, especially because I was COMPLETELY WRONG! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]

The results have nothing to do with anything except how many lap dances I got that night.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Zen- Congrats nice score, that should help with some buy-ins.

Irie- Congrats also, way to hook your cart to the winning horse.

[SlackerMcFly]

Doh! As usual, I would have made the wrong play. Did I at least have a decent read on the chick to your left?

This type of discussion, replies and situations like this is exactly why I read this forum. It makes me a better player and now I have a better appreciation for identifying a position to push with any two. Thanks!

Slacker

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Doh! As usual, I would have made the wrong play. Did I at least have a decent read on the chick to your left?

Slacker

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, your read on the "chick" was partially correct:

[ QUOTE ]
Given the number of Heinekens consumed it wouldn't matter to you at that point if she were Phyllis Diller

[/ QUOTE ]

She looked remarkably like Phyllis Diller... but I can't drink enough Heinekens for that to stop mattering.

Irieguy

[valenzuela]

This is the typical forum discussion: some pro says A or B, I say B, the pro says its obviously A. This shows two things: that the party games are soooooooooooooooooooooooo soft and that we suck at poker. Im sure nobody in this forum is satisfied with their poker skill if they were they wouldnt be here.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
This is the typical forum discussion: some pro says A or B, I say B, the pro says its obviously A. This shows two things: that the party games are soooooooooooooooooooooooo soft and that we suck at poker. Im sure nobody in this forum is satisfied with their poker skill if they were they wouldnt be here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I find to be the strangest thing is that I know of several very very good players (or I'd consider them very very good) who have *completely* conflicting viewpoints on many STT hands. Not just 1 or 2 minor ones, but *extreme* differences of opinion.

It's confusing as all hell!

Yugoslav

[RicP]

[ QUOTE ]


What I find to be the strangest thing is that I know of several very very good players (or I'd consider them very very good) who have *completely* conflicting viewpoints on many STT hands. Not just 1 or 2 minor ones, but *extreme* differences of opinion.

It's confusing as all hell!


[/ QUOTE ]

[Bigwig]

I call and see a flop.

I'd call and see a flop with all kinds of crap here.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is the typical forum discussion: some pro says A or B, I say B, the pro says its obviously A. This shows two things: that the party games are soooooooooooooooooooooooo soft and that we suck at poker. Im sure nobody in this forum is satisfied with their poker skill if they were they wouldnt be here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I find to be the strangest thing is that I know of several very very good players (or I'd consider them very very good) who have *completely* conflicting viewpoints on many STT hands. Not just 1 or 2 minor ones, but *extreme* differences of opinion.

It's confusing as all hell!

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

That's because some of them are winning because they are good and right, and some of them are winning because they are lucky. You can discriminate between the two based on longevity.

This should be a popular comment.

Irieguy

[gumpzilla]

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That's because some of them are winning because they are good and right, and some of them are winning because they are lucky. You can discriminate between the two based on longevity.

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Yugo said good, not winning. Presumably he's basing his comments on evidence like explanations of how they think rather than just looking at ROI numbers.

[johnnybeef]

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This is the typical forum discussion: some pro says A or B, I say B, the pro says its obviously A. This shows two things: that the party games are soooooooooooooooooooooooo soft and that we suck at poker. Im sure nobody in this forum is satisfied with their poker skill if they were they wouldnt be here.

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What I find to be the strangest thing is that I know of several very very good players (or I'd consider them very very good) who have *completely* conflicting viewpoints on many STT hands. Not just 1 or 2 minor ones, but *extreme* differences of opinion.

It's confusing as all hell!

Yugoslav

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That's because some of them are winning because they are good and right, and some of them are winning because they are lucky. You can discriminate between the two based on longevity.

This should be a popular comment.

Irieguy

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i cant help it.....play the right way /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[curtains]

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This is the typical forum discussion: some pro says A or B, I say B, the pro says its obviously A. This shows two things: that the party games are soooooooooooooooooooooooo soft and that we suck at poker. Im sure nobody in this forum is satisfied with their poker skill if they were they wouldnt be here.

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What I find to be the strangest thing is that I know of several very very good players (or I'd consider them very very good) who have *completely* conflicting viewpoints on many STT hands. Not just 1 or 2 minor ones, but *extreme* differences of opinion.

It's confusing as all hell!

Yugoslav

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That's because some of them are winning because they are good and right, and some of them are winning because they are lucky. You can discriminate between the two based on longevity.

This should be a popular comment.

Irieguy

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Also because the best 2+2'ers win at such a large rate, its very possible for others to win (at a lower rate, but more than enough to make a comfortable living) too yet make mistakes.

[Irieguy]

I think I know who Yugo is talking about. Sometimes someone's thinking will seem clear and convincing because they are good at either debate, or have expertise in another strategy game. Therefore, they may seem like they know what they are talking about because they are used to discussing strategy. But in the case of SNG game theory they may be completely wrong.

I can think of one particular duo who almost always disagree with one another(I'm not one of the two, btw.) One of them has been beating poker for almost as long as the other one has been alive. It seems like most people think the youngling is a winning player. Now, he may become a winning player because he's smart and good at games... but his SNG thinking is flawed and his ego will prevent him from figuring that out any time soon.

Irieguy

[Irieguy]

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Also because the best 2+2'ers win at such a large rate, its very possible for others to win (at a lower rate, but more than enough to make a comfortable living) too yet make mistakes.

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Yeah, actually that probably accounts for most of the differences in opinion between winners... I just thought it would be more fun to imply something more insulting.

Irieguy

[curtains]

You are likely referring to me. Feel free to dispel that notion if you aren't.

[Gramps]

If what Yugo says is right, then yeah, no worries about image concerns if people are calling based on cards regardless of what you've done. I guess it's up to one's judgment about the other players at the table (and one's judgment about their read on UTG+1, b/c he could call your push a % of the time).

I mean...your friend pushed, UTG+1 folded, he won the hand, and won the tourney. So, obviously it was the right play to make. Short-term results never lie. Except for my -50% ROI yesterday in the 215s...

[Apathy]

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If what Yugo says is right, then yeah, no worries about image concerns if people are calling based on cards regardless of what you've done. I guess it's up to one's judgment about the other players at the table (and one's judgment about their read on UTG+1, b/c he could call your push a % of the time).

I mean...your friend pushed, UTG+1 folded, he won the hand, and won the tourney. So, obviously it was the right play to make. Short-term results never lie. Except for my -50% ROI yesterday in the 215s...

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I thought you were a -50% roi player? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Gramps]

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I thought you were a -50% roi player?

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Denial is a bitch of a habit to kick...

[Gramps]

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Furthermore, the only time I played there I swear that the maniacs had a better image than the tight guys....people were calling based on their cards, not on their image of you. However, everyone was hesitant to push into a maniacal big stack or stack that was sucking out every which way recently...

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If the above is true, then yes, my arguments go out the window. I play online 99.9% of the time, and mostly against lots of very aggressive/brave opponents near the bubble. I'm assuming there may be a few scaredies at this final table, but my assumption is there are a number that know what they're doing and are going to make good plays based on the information available.

As always, one's assumptions of the variables in play go a long way to determining what the right play is in the right situation. I wasn't there, so I can't argue as to what the variables really were, I just make up my own assumptions on the information given and my own experiences. If my assumptions don't jive with reality, then my conclusions based on those assumptions may crumble.

Maybe I should have become an econ professor now that I think about it...assume, assume, assume, assume, draw conclusion based upon assumptions, then apply conclusion to real world and act surprised if people disagree...

[The Yugoslavian]

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Furthermore, the only time I played there I swear that the maniacs had a better image than the tight guys....people were calling based on their cards, not on their image of you. However, everyone was hesitant to push into a maniacal big stack or stack that was sucking out every which way recently...

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If the above is true, then yes, my arguments go out the window. I play online 99.9% of the time, and mostly against lots of very aggressive/brave opponents near the bubble. I'm assuming there may be a few scaredies at this final table, but my assumption is there are a number that know what they're doing and are going to make good plays based on the information available.

As always, one's assumptions of the variables in play go a long way to determining what the right play is in the right situation. I wasn't there, so I can't argue as to what the variables really were, I just make up my own assumptions on the information given and my own experiences. If my assumptions don't jive with reality, then my conclusions based on those assumptions may crumble.

Maybe I should have become an econ professor now that I think about it...assume, assume, assume, assume, draw conclusion based upon assumptions, then apply conclusion to real world and act surprised if people disagree...

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/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Yeah, I'm not sure that it won't wreck one's image. That is why I was asking Irie. He has more experience live than most of this forum put together, plus he's played at the Orleans off and on for quite a while.

The one time I played there with Zen and Irie I could tell basically their whole game plan was punishing the scaredy cats....they even pulled some sweet old school moves to help the cause (which I won't go into). Of course, Irie busted deciding to punish the one player at his table he *knew* may be capable of trapping his LAGtastic ass with a huge hand....maybe I shouldn't have brought him that last Heineken, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav
PS Irie pretty much had to make the move that did him in...but...but....getting trapped by a chick *had* to smart, /images/graemlins/smirk.gif.

[Irieguy]

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Yugoslav
PS Irie pretty much had to make the move that did him in...but...but....getting trapped by a chick *had* to smart, /images/graemlins/smirk.gif.

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Getting trapped by a skirt is way better than getting trapped by a dude... unless, of course, you are gay, Yugo.

Irieguy

[Gramps]

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Quote:

Yugoslav
PS Irie pretty much had to make the move that did him in...but...but....getting trapped by a chick *had* to smart,


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Getting trapped by a skirt is way better than getting trapped by a dude... unless, of course, you are gay, Yugo.

Irieguy

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I thought getting pwn3d wasn't allowed on a Sunday. Guess not. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[SuitedSixes]

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It's confusing as all hell!

Yugoslav

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Alright. This whole thing has come about because I am tired of discussing strategy with Yugo. I hate it. It is like teaching a pig to sing . . . it wastes my time and annoys the pig.

I am, what I consider to be a +CS (common sense) player, whereas Yugo is a +EV player. I can pass on +EV situations all tournament long if I feel it is going to help me in the long run. I am also very comfortable with a short stack, and very comfortable with my ability to double-up when I need to, especially on the bubble and ITM. Some players play for first, I don't even think about first until I've got third place money in my pocket (My finish distribution ITM is 36.4%, 29.7%, 33.9%). I just feel that every time that Yugo sticks his kneck out to take advantage of a +EV position, he increases his likelihood of getting busted out.

Neither of us are wrong, and neither of us are right. There comes a point in every player's development when he needs to pick his own style, and the more time you spend trying to pick through the noise of the knowledgeable posters here on 2+2 you are not developing your style.

You can only develop so far as a player watching other people argue a point that really has no correct answer. For the beginning players, pick one player, or one group of players that have a similar style and pay attention to them. If you have a mentor that you trust, it is best to listen to his advice until you are at a point where you are successful enough to start trying things that fit your personality better. A good mentor probably has a long term plan for you, that won't make sense until all the pieces are put together. Looking for advice from other people is damaging to your growth.

Here is my stlye and works very well for me, others will disagree, and find it unsuccessful or uncomfortable.

I am a LAG . . . lazy aggressive. I am content to sit back, let others bust each other so that there are fewer players for me to deal with. If Party offered a tournament that had five players and I started with 1/2 of the other stacks, I would play that all day and thrive.

I do not tolerate limpers and min-raisers. I may get trapped and lose sometimes, but that's fine. That's my style.

When I lose, it's because I pushed with a hand that was dominated or because the other guy got lucky. I don't want to lose by calling someone else with a questionable hand.

If I am sure that I have the best hand pre-flop, I act accordingly. I just refuse to fold the best hand. That's my style.

This is my current style that has been forged through reading thousands of posts, receiving tips from players smarter than myself, and playing thousands of tournaments and it serves me well.

[adanthar]

Online, I'd pretty much always call, because when you push these there's a good chance UTG+1 thinks forever and then calls his KJo anyway.

Zen apparently had a good read. I don't think you get away with that push often enough to make it worth while in any game I've ever played, but hey, I don't play live.

This was a really good hand to post.

[The Yugoslavian]

I'm all about +$EV....I don't want anyone mistaking it for CEV or some other EV. I look for the most profitable play and make it...this has been developed through reading a ridiculous % of existing threads in this forum, listening to players much better than I am....playing and studying.

I'm out there to PROFIT BITCHES!

Of course, I'm not very good at it.....

Yet!

BWahahahahahwWHAWHAHAWHhwhawhahahah...

3u0

Yugoslav

[ForumBot]

It's an easy PUSH; you Moerans! /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

ForumBot
Whose metal mind is convinced that Yugo is the gayest dude since Paul Linde /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ForumBot]

SEE YOU MORTAL DUDES AT KAHUNAVILLE ON 6/2 @ 7:00...MOERON "SKIP" AND i WILL BE AT WYNN PRIOR TO THAT /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[johnnybeef]

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SEE YOU MORTAL DUDES AT KAHUNAVILLE ON 6/2 @ 7:00...MOERON "SKIP" AND i WILL BE AT WYNN PRIOR TO THAT /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

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what game can i expect to pwn you at?

[skipperbob]

Can't miss me...Oldest dude in the room/half smashed/stuck like a pig/ trying to hide from Yugo/ page "SkipperBob"

[raptor517]

ill be there too, and you can fully expect to not pwn me at anything. holla

[The Yugoslavian]

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ill be there too, and you can fully expect to not pwn me at anything. holla

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Except cashing out all of his (and probably your) winnings...

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Yugoslav

[johnnybeef]

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ill be there too, and you can fully expect to not pwn me at anything. holla

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not even tiddly winks?

[microbet]

Are you the young one or the old one? You're not that young are you?

[microbet]

By good at games, do you mean chess or dance dance revolution?

Damn, Curtains thinks he's good at that dumb dancing game too.

[curtains]

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I think I know who Yugo is talking about. Sometimes someone's thinking will seem clear and convincing because they are good at either debate, or have expertise in another strategy game. Therefore, they may seem like they know what they are talking about because they are used to discussing strategy. But in the case of SNG game theory they may be completely wrong.

I can think of one particular duo who almost always disagree with one another(I'm not one of the two, btw.) One of them has been beating poker for almost as long as the other one has been alive. It seems like most people think the youngling is a winning player. Now, he may become a winning player because he's smart and good at games... but his SNG thinking is flawed and his ego will prevent him from figuring that out any time soon.

Irieguy

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I have been a professional poker player for well over two years now and have done just fine (Meaning I have no source of income besides poker for the last 2 years, aside from the very occasional chess lesson).


"Now, he may become a winning player because he's smart and good at games"

Now this is a total joke. Even I understand that many of those that I disagree with on 2+2 win at poker despite making some mistakes or having some flaws in their understanding. Sit and go's really arent that hard to beat, you can play relatively poorly yet beat them anyway. I mean do you really think I lose money playing sit and go's?


But you are right, maybe if I work hard and listen to all the players on 2+2 whom are much better than me and have an obviously superior understanding of poker, despite the fact that there is zero evidence to back up this claim, I might just learn how to finally win.



"One of them has been beating poker for almost as long as the other one has been alive."

Another ridiculous statement that has no relevance whatsoever.

[Dallara]

Suited, I think I play a very similar style to what you describe. PM me if you want to share some hand histories or talk about it some more.