Scary turn raise

[marsvolta619]

Table has been horrible. Question is on the turn... does anyone lay down here or is calling down correct? I hate situations like these because I don't think I can ever fold this(except preflop)

PokerStars 10/20 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

River: (9.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

[cartman]

In my opinion, folding on the turn or the river is absolutely out of the question.

Cartman

[twankerr]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate situations like these because I don't think I can ever fold this(except preflop)


[/ QUOTE ]

That's because there is no way you can fold this. I'm feeling frisky so I'll do a little analysis of what you are up against.

Consider that you will call the river on a card that doesn't boat you. You will raise the river on a card that boats you (and I'll assume he just calls your raise).

You are 8.7% to fill up on the river, so 8.7% of the time you will win 13.5BB.

The other 91.3% of the time can be split up into the times you are ahead, w, and the times you are behind, l. When you are ahead you will win 11.5BB and when you are behind you will lose 2BB.

.087*13.5 + w*11.5 - l*2 &gt; 0.

Solving this gets w ~= .05 and l ~= .86. These are the percentages of time you are ahead after the last card is out and you haven't filled up. So, you need to be ahead a little more than 1 time in 20 (there are times where he is behind on the turn and he outdraws you) to call the turn and plan a call on the river. The odds may even be curtailed a small amount if you plan to fold a 4th diamond x% of the time.

That is all.

[GrandmaStabone]

If the hand played out the same way, yet the turn card didn't pair him, would folding be considered?



EDIT: ^^^^^ When I read this it sounds like Yoda-speak in my head.....