Interesting near-bubble hand

[DasLeben]

99% of the time this would be an insta-push. However, note the micro-stacks. Discuss.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t170)
MP (t2600)
Hero (t1465)
SB (t208)
BB (t3557)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t170 (all-in), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ??

[astarck]

Well, I wrote a very detailed response and then realized that I thought you were the BB and had 3600 chips. You of course being Hero changes everything and it is too early to re-consider the hand.

Oh well, sorry for the lack of help.

Anyone know how to play this hand?

[Jonathan]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I wrote a very detailed response and then realized that I thought you were the BB and had 3600 chips. You of course being Hero changes everything and it is too early to re-consider the hand.

Oh well, sorry for the lack of help.

Anyone know how to play this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[/ QUOTE ]

That quick, huh? Two of these guys can only post one BB each. You think it's worth risking hero's tournament when he's basically guaranteed to money?

Yeah, big stack probably doesn't call here. When he does, hero stands a good shot at winning the whole thing. But busting out when there are two people who can't even post a round of blinds is just retarded.

[sng-sam]

I push this. becuase.

1. I'm supposed to be shooting for 1st not survival
2. A standard raise is big enough to dictate a push.
3. A Min Raise only invites BB into the pot or to push
4. Smooth call makes the pot nice enough that big stack tries to buy it and then we still find ourselves in this mess where we might bust out.

At least by pushing we put the pressure on the Big Stack to have a hand. My $.02

SAM

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[/ QUOTE ]

That quick, huh? Two of these guys can only post one BB each. You think it's worth risking hero's tournament when he's basically guaranteed to money?

Yeah, big stack probably doesn't call here. When he does, hero stands a good shot at winning the whole thing. But busting out when there are two people who can't even post a round of blinds is just retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder you were arguing with me in the other thread. You play awful if you even think about folding this.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[/ QUOTE ]

That quick, huh? Two of these guys can only post one BB each. You think it's worth risking hero's tournament when he's basically guaranteed to money?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on how much you're willing to risk missing ITM to shoot for first.

I want first and my risk/reward ratio is pretty favorable -- I push. If I bust, too bad.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[/ QUOTE ]

That quick, huh? Two of these guys can only post one BB each. You think it's worth risking hero's tournament when he's basically guaranteed to money?

Yeah, big stack probably doesn't call here. When he does, hero stands a good shot at winning the whole thing. But busting out when there are two people who can't even post a round of blinds is just retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder you were arguing with me in the other thread. You play awful if you even think about folding this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lemme know where I said to fold this. Cause I missed that part of my post.

I think you put in a standard raise here. Maybe even just limp. Personally, if the guy comes over the top of me, I'm calling anyway, so it makes sense to push.

All I said is that it's not an entirely instant decision to push here, due to the fact that there are two flea-like stacks out. Ya know, take a couple seconds to think about the situation. I never said or implied that folding was an option.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[/ QUOTE ]

That quick, huh? Two of these guys can only post one BB each. You think it's worth risking hero's tournament when he's basically guaranteed to money?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on how much you're willing to risk missing ITM to shoot for first.

I want first and my risk/reward ratio is pretty favorable -- I push. If I bust, too bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's little risk to it at all, but the reward of pushing isn't any greater than the reward of making a 3BB raise.

If you push here, big stack probably folds everything but TT+, AQ+. Great, not gonna happen often enough for it to make an impact anyway. But if you raise it 3BB, he might come along with something like KQs, QJs, etc. Maybe even come over the top with a resteal, I don't know. If I can get all my money in preflop against the big stack, I will. Nothing wrong with making a smaller raise, hoping to get a few more chips. If an A comes on the flop, play with caution, no big deal.

[45suited]

Why be so afraid of busting out with kings? UTG all in is irrelevant. Personally, I put in a mini-raise, hope that BB sees this as a weak isolation raise and comes over the top of me. I call and likely double up. If I bust after getting all my money in with kings, thems the breaks. Folding here is so horrible it shouldn't even enter your mind.

[xLukex]

Hero pushes, SB calls, BB folds everything but the very best and watches hero make him at least $20.

The odds of someone having you beat preflop here is outrageous.

Putting in a minraise is pointless. I don't think playing around with BB is going to do you any good here. He may have been considering calling with A5 or something, but if you just PUSH rather than minraise, he will throw this hand away. If you just raise, however, and he calls and hits an ace you're SOL. Just push and get BB out of the hand 95% of the time.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Putting in a minraise is pointless. I don't think playing around with BB is going to do you any good here. He may have been considering calling with A5 or something, but if you just PUSH rather than minraise, he will throw this hand away. If you just raise, however, and he calls and hits an ace you're SOL. Just push and get BB out of the hand 95% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's pointless. I know you don't want to tangle with the big stack, but personally I also want to double up. Kings are a huge hand. If an ace flops, you can always fold if big stack bets. You still are in good shape to make the money. Push a non-ace flop and hope to get called. Risky yes, but there is also the chance that a thinking big stack sees your mini-raise as weak and comes over the top pre-flop, which is great.

Look at it this way: the shorty in the hand is not adding significant dead money. If he wasn't in it, would you just open push or mini raise in order to trap and get some action? I wouldn't trap with queens here, and it is scary to do it with kings, but I think that the case can be made to do it.

EDIT: On 2nd thought, trapping is getting too cute. If I busted out, I would totally deserve it. I just push here. Certainly never fold.

[gasgod]

This is closer than it looks. My ICM calculation:

Assume SB always folds, and BB folds 95% of the time when you push. Assume you are a 75% favorite over UTG, and a 65% favorite over BB when he calls your push.

Fold: 27.0 % of prize pool
Push: 27.6 % of prize pool

If you assume BB calls 15% of the time, and you are a 70% favorite over him, then

Fold: 27.0 % of prize pool
Push: 27.3 % of prize pool

It looks like pushing is better than folding, but not by a ton. Whether you sacrifice the small edge for the sake of avoiding a very unlikely bust-out is a matter of style, IMO.

I didn't try to estimate the outcome of a call or minraise, but my gut feeling is that it's a bad idea to let BB into the hand easily.

I hope I didn't screw up the ICM calculations. All my assumptions are SWAGs; somebody with eastbay's program might get more accurate results.

GG

[DasLeben]

Yeah, "play for first," blah blah blah.

The discussion I'm trying to get going is just how +EV it is to push, vs. how +EV it is to make an alternate play to guarantee a spot ITM. Note that when I say "alternate play," that does not include folding. That would be a horrendous move, and I can't believe some people thought I implied that (give me SOME credit).

So, anyone have any thoughts along those lines?

[gasgod]

The more I look at this, the more I think you should raise to about t500. BB would be getting 3:1 on his money, and should always call. In practice, he might fold the bottom 35%, but this would be a mistake. If he calls 65% of the time, ICM gives you roughly 29% of the prize pool, which is better than pushing or folding.

If he pushes over the top you should fold, although it's close. If you think he's good enough to push with a marginal holding then it's probably better to push preflop.

JMO, and it's not an expert one.

GG

[iMsoLucky0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[/ QUOTE ]

That quick, huh? Two of these guys can only post one BB each. You think it's worth risking hero's tournament when he's basically guaranteed to money?

Yeah, big stack probably doesn't call here. When he does, hero stands a good shot at winning the whole thing. But busting out when there are two people who can't even post a round of blinds is just retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[/ QUOTE ]

That quick, huh? Two of these guys can only post one BB each. You think it's worth risking hero's tournament when he's basically guaranteed to money?

Yeah, big stack probably doesn't call here. When he does, hero stands a good shot at winning the whole thing. But busting out when there are two people who can't even post a round of blinds is just retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder you were arguing with me in the other thread. You play awful if you even think about folding this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lemme know where I said to fold this. Cause I missed that part of my post.

I think you put in a standard raise here. Maybe even just limp. Personally, if the guy comes over the top of me, I'm calling anyway, so it makes sense to push.

All I said is that it's not an entirely instant decision to push here, due to the fact that there are two flea-like stacks out. Ya know, take a couple seconds to think about the situation. I never said or implied that folding was an option.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[/ QUOTE ]

That quick, huh? Two of these guys can only post one BB each. You think it's worth risking hero's tournament when he's basically guaranteed to money?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on how much you're willing to risk missing ITM to shoot for first.

I want first and my risk/reward ratio is pretty favorable -- I push. If I bust, too bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's little risk to it at all, but the reward of pushing isn't any greater than the reward of making a 3BB raise.

If you push here, big stack probably folds everything but TT+, AQ+. Great, not gonna happen often enough for it to make an impact anyway. But if you raise it 3BB, he might come along with something like KQs, QJs, etc. Maybe even come over the top with a resteal, I don't know. If I can get all my money in preflop against the big stack, I will. Nothing wrong with making a smaller raise, hoping to get a few more chips. If an A comes on the flop, play with caution, no big deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

You, my sir, are a backtracking idiot.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
The more I look at this, the more I think you should raise to about t500. BB would be getting 3:1 on his money, and should always call. In practice, he might fold the bottom 35%, but this would be a mistake. If he calls 65% of the time, ICM gives you roughly 29% of the prize pool, which is better than pushing or folding.

If he pushes over the top you should fold, although it's close. If you think he's good enough to push with a marginal holding then it's probably better to push preflop.

JMO, and it's not an expert one.

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

hrm, when i looked at this hand, the first thing i thought was "now if only there was a way i could convince the big stack to push over an action i make, i'd be super happy." if you find a way to get all in here, and called, you should take it, not run from it.

as for being gauranteed the money, i think that is not a certainty. it's very possible that one of the stacks triples up on this hand if you fold, and then pushes on your big blind next hand or the hand after (depending on which small stack wins).

since there's no way that i'm folding this, my only impulse is towards seeing if i can get a big stack to play with me. a lot of players will call out of hte big blind if i raise and then the other short stack calls in (my raise being smallish, to say 500 or 600 or 700 tops). another group of players will then find the nerve to bet when they hit the flop (and some when they don't!). in general, i'd be happy, depending on the flop, to get all in post flop against the big stack too, as long as i made him get a fairly large % of my stack in there preflop.

none of this means that i wouldn't push preflop. i'd only really feel free to limp if i felt sure that the one of the taller stacks would push liberally against my "hey, that guy wants to collude to knock out the short stacks," looking limp.

another consideration is that if you limp and the sb completes, if the big stack checks and then the flop action goes check push, you're in a silly spot because you put yourself there.

citanul

editted to add: in the case of preflop action you limp, sb limps, big stack pushes, you're in a similarly odd spot with the sb having the chance to fold if you call, and while icm might say to fold there, i am not folding there because it's the situation i was playing for.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
hrm, when i looked at this hand, the first thing i thought was "now if only there was a way i could convince the big stack to push over an action i make, i'd be super happy." if you find a way to get all in here, and called, you should take it, not run from it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assumed that BB would push over the top of t500 only with a fairly narrow range. AA-88, AK-AT or so. Against this range, you'd be about a 70% favorite, which is about break even, ICM-wise. I guess this means that I've assumed much too tight a range? You don't have to expand this range a lot to make it a call.

[note to self: Get eastbay's program]

GG

[johnnybeef]

call and get your chips in the center asap there after.

[HighestCard]

Heres what I would do, not saying that it is right, but everybody else is getting their two cents in so here we go.

I would limp, hopeing SB would go all in, but if not thats ok. If SB does go all in and BB calls, I would push the flop with the exception of an ace or a king on the flop. An ace would be a good time to check to follow knock out etiquette, hopeing BB checks because hes just as scared of that ace as you. If he bets out i would fold. A king on the flop is obviously a nice slow play with the exception of 3 flush cards on the board.

Any raise BB does pre flop is an automatic push, and if he pushes its a good call all-in (praying you dont see those rockets).

I think a min raise pf would scare SB away because he has some time being on the button next hand.

A push preflop is even worse, scaring potential money away that BB would put in the pot post flop.

In the ideal situation SB goes all in and hero calls, or better yet pushes, you are in a great situation to be in the money, and a good position to win the whole thing.

[lastchance]

I really like the t600 raise here. It looks tentative, and you probably SB along for the ride.

I just don't see the downside of raising t600, as you're all-in on any flop.

[DrButch]

[ QUOTE ]
I would limp, hopeing SB would go all in, but if not thats ok. If SB does go all in and BB calls, I would push the flop with the exception of an ace or a king on the flop. An ace would be a good time to check to follow knock out etiquette, hopeing BB checks because hes just as scared of that ace as you. If he bets out i would fold. A king on the flop is obviously a nice slow play with the exception of 3 flush cards on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow... that's a nice approach and makes good use of "what's the best play that they'd make" logic. Can this decision be made in 30 seconds (I'd knee-jerk all-in), or is there a nice general and identifiable situation where this can apply?

[HighestCard]

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't see the downside of raising t600, as you're all-in on any flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you all in on a flop with three dimonds and an Ace?...or what about a nice King on the flop, even better with an ace AND a king on the flop....

[HighestCard]

[ QUOTE ]
Can this decision be made in 30 seconds (I'd knee-jerk all-in), or is there a nice general and identifiable situation where this can apply?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any big hand where you have an opprunity to knock one or two short stacks out should be played where the short stacks lead themselves into the pot, and you calling with a nice trap. Pocket pair are the ideal, because most SS that dont push pf, but catch a pair on the flop will push no matter what.

[Nottom]

Cool, maybe the SB will call and end the bubble now.

Why would you consider not pushing?

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
call and get your chips in the center asap there after.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I would do. Call and push on all non-ace flops. If an ace flops and BB bets I would have no problem letting go.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[/ QUOTE ]

That quick, huh? Two of these guys can only post one BB each. You think it's worth risking hero's tournament when he's basically guaranteed to money?

Yeah, big stack probably doesn't call here. When he does, hero stands a good shot at winning the whole thing. But busting out when there are two people who can't even post a round of blinds is just retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[/ QUOTE ]

That quick, huh? Two of these guys can only post one BB each. You think it's worth risking hero's tournament when he's basically guaranteed to money?

Yeah, big stack probably doesn't call here. When he does, hero stands a good shot at winning the whole thing. But busting out when there are two people who can't even post a round of blinds is just retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder you were arguing with me in the other thread. You play awful if you even think about folding this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lemme know where I said to fold this. Cause I missed that part of my post.

I think you put in a standard raise here. Maybe even just limp. Personally, if the guy comes over the top of me, I'm calling anyway, so it makes sense to push.

All I said is that it's not an entirely instant decision to push here, due to the fact that there are two flea-like stacks out. Ya know, take a couple seconds to think about the situation. I never said or implied that folding was an option.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do!

Push.

Jonathan

[/ QUOTE ]

That quick, huh? Two of these guys can only post one BB each. You think it's worth risking hero's tournament when he's basically guaranteed to money?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on how much you're willing to risk missing ITM to shoot for first.

I want first and my risk/reward ratio is pretty favorable -- I push. If I bust, too bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's little risk to it at all, but the reward of pushing isn't any greater than the reward of making a 3BB raise.

If you push here, big stack probably folds everything but TT+, AQ+. Great, not gonna happen often enough for it to make an impact anyway. But if you raise it 3BB, he might come along with something like KQs, QJs, etc. Maybe even come over the top with a resteal, I don't know. If I can get all my money in preflop against the big stack, I will. Nothing wrong with making a smaller raise, hoping to get a few more chips. If an A comes on the flop, play with caution, no big deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

You, my sir, are a backtracking idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? My first reply was suggesting that people actually take a second to think about the hand, rather than seeing kings and push. I'd already discussed the hand plenty with DasLeben via AIM, so there was no reason for me to immediately post my course of action. I was simply mentioning that it isn't quite the no-brainer some people may think.

My next reply is what I would do (limp or make a t600 raise), and the third is what I would like to see happen if I played it like that (big stack pops me back, we get all in).

None of it conflicts or backtracks. I just held off on what I would do, because Das had already heard it, and I was interested in what other people would say.