What's your action on this super big huge bubble hand?

[Bigwig]

Party $30.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1090)
Hero (t3030)
SB (t2220)
BB (t1660)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t800</font>, SB calls t650, BB calls t500.

Flop: (t2400) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t1420 (All-In)</font>, BB calls t860 (All-In), Hero???

[lastchance]

Hero's getting over 3:1 on a nut flush draw with 2 cards to come, plus someone's probably going broke here. Not a too tough call.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero's getting over 3:1 on a nut flush draw with 2 cards to come, plus someone's probably going broke here. Not a too tough call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just checking. So far, so good.

[jon462]

i think you hafta call. you prolly shoulda just open pushed to start with tho, unless there has been a lot of folding to small raises so far.

[lastchance]

Wow, I'm too tired. That didn't register. Yeah, Push preflop, unless SB and BB suck, which they probably do.

[johnnybeef]

hopefully you see how silly that raise of 800 was from this...that being the case, i call in a heartbeat as you are getting over 4:1 on a nut flush draw that will come in over 1/3 of the time. furthermore when you do lose this pot, you will be in the money most of the time.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
hopefully you see how silly that raise of 800 was from this...that being the case, i call in a heartbeat as you are getting over 4:1 on a nut flush draw that will come in over 1/3 of the time. furthermore when you do lose this pot, you will be in the money most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was multi-tabling, and didn't note the size of the stacks in the blinds. I'm used to playing $50s, so I'm used to bigger stacks 4 handed.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hopefully you see how silly that raise of 800 was from this...that being the case, i call in a heartbeat as you are getting over 4:1 on a nut flush draw that will come in over 1/3 of the time. furthermore when you do lose this pot, you will be in the money most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was multi-tabling, and didn't note the size of the stacks in the blinds. I'm used to playing $50s, so I'm used to bigger stacks 4 handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough...happens to me ocassionally too (especially since i have gotten to 8 tables).

[iMsoLucky0]

Open push to start, but call once in this position.

NH.

[gasgod]

Pot odds are meaningless here. This is a simple case where ICM is applicable.

You have a 35% chance of catching your flush. Assuming it will winn 100% of the time you catch it, and assuming you have a 50% chance to get third place when you fail, calling gives you a mere 23% of the prize pool, while folding gives you 32.7%

GG

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot odds are meaningless here. This is a simple case where ICM is applicable.

You have a 35% chance of catching your flush. Assuming it will winn 100% of the time you catch it, and assuming you have a 50% chance to get third place when you fail, calling gives you a mere 23% of the prize pool, while folding gives you 32.7%

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

No

[gasgod]

What did I do wrong?

GG

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
What did I do wrong?

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot odds aren't meaningless. You are getting a huge overlay with the nut flush draw and 2 cards to come AND the chance to eliminate 2 people and almost guarantee a victory.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What did I do wrong?

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot odds aren't meaningless. You are getting a huge overlay with the nut flush draw and 2 cards to come AND the chance to eliminate 2 people and almost guarantee a victory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's why I say pot odds are meaningless:

You have t2230. If you triple up, you cannot triple you share of the prize pool. If you fold, you'll get, on average, 33% of the PP. But, no matter how many chips you win, you cannot get more than 50% of the PP, because that's first place. Tripling up increases your $EV by only 50% or so.

GG

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
What did I do wrong?

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot odds aren't meaningless. You are getting a huge overlay with the nut flush draw and 2 cards to come AND the chance to eliminate 2 people and almost guarantee a victory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's why I say pot odds are meaningless

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

you're not gaining ground here. your statement is continuing to be both stupid and ignorant, while with every iteration also becoming more blatantly "i'm not trying to learn."

citanul

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What did I do wrong?

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot odds aren't meaningless. You are getting a huge overlay with the nut flush draw and 2 cards to come AND the chance to eliminate 2 people and almost guarantee a victory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick, I have the greatest respect for your game. I read every hand of the HH you posted, and I hope I learned from it.

But this answer doesn't help me. /images/graemlins/confused.gif Is my problem that I don't understand ICM? Is ICM just worthless? Have I missed something obvious?

citanul is entirely correct that I am ignorant. I take his word for the fact that my post was stupid. I am painfully aware that I'm not nearly the player that either of you are. All I ask is a little more explanation. It just feels wrong to call when I bust out 65% of the time. (Granting that I would often take third)

GG

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What did I do wrong?

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot odds aren't meaningless. You are getting a huge overlay with the nut flush draw and 2 cards to come AND the chance to eliminate 2 people and almost guarantee a victory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick, I have the greatest respect for your game. I read every hand of the HH you posted, and I hope I learned from it.

But this answer doesn't help me. /images/graemlins/confused.gif Is my problem that I don't understand ICM? Is ICM just worthless? Have I missed something obvious?

citanul is entirely correct that I am ignorant. I take his word for the fact that my post was stupid. I am painfully aware that I'm not nearly the player that either of you are. All I ask is a little more explanation. It just feels wrong to call when I bust out 65% of the time. (Granting that I would often take third)

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't bust out in this situation.
[ QUOTE ]

UTG (t1090)
Hero (t3030)
SB (t2220)
BB (t1660)

[/ QUOTE ]

You are the big stack with a very good chance to take out two opponents.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What did I do wrong?

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot odds aren't meaningless. You are getting a huge overlay with the nut flush draw and 2 cards to come AND the chance to eliminate 2 people and almost guarantee a victory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick, I have the greatest respect for your game. I read every hand of the HH you posted, and I hope I learned from it.

But this answer doesn't help me. /images/graemlins/confused.gif Is my problem that I don't understand ICM? Is ICM just worthless? <font color="red"> Have I missed something obvious? </font>

citanul is entirely correct that I am ignorant. I take his word for the fact that my post was stupid. I am painfully aware that I'm not nearly the player that either of you are. All I ask is a little more explanation. It just feels wrong to call when I bust out 65% of the time. (Granting that I would often take third)

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't bust out in this situation.
[ QUOTE ]

UTG (t1090)
Hero (t3030)
SB (t2220)
BB (t1660)

[/ QUOTE ]

You are the big stack with a very good chance to take out two opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif

GG

[gasgod]

I am such a moron. ICM makes this a call by a comfortable margin. FWIW (who cares?), I took hero's stack to be 2230 starting chips because of the t800 bet.

*tries to slink away*

GG

[Daliman]

Well, the call is made easier by the fact that worst case scenario is that you have 810 chips left while there are 2 other stacks below yours(positionally). Made a bit harder though by the fact that one of these has a good chance of having a flush draw also. Yes, yours is to the nuts, but your outs are as such decreased if the case. This is pretty much a case of once yer here, either play is preyty close, so calling or folding are both fine IMHO. I'd likely fold tho, depending on players and push texture.

But first things first; POOSH PREFLOP!

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What did I do wrong?

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot odds aren't meaningless. You are getting a huge overlay with the nut flush draw and 2 cards to come AND the chance to eliminate 2 people and almost guarantee a victory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's why I say pot odds are meaningless

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

you're not gaining ground here. your statement is continuing to be both stupid and ignorant, while with every iteration also becoming more blatantly "i'm not trying to learn."

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you such an [censored]?

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What did I do wrong?

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot odds aren't meaningless. You are getting a huge overlay with the nut flush draw and 2 cards to come AND the chance to eliminate 2 people and almost guarantee a victory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's why I say pot odds are meaningless

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

you're not gaining ground here. your statement is continuing to be both stupid and ignorant, while with every iteration also becoming more blatantly "i'm not trying to learn."

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you such an [censored]?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're joking, but it seemed like the guy was trying to explain his point, even though he was wrong. I'd rather he make an attempt to explain his thinking than just say I'm wrong, the smarter guy is right. Being mean has merit, but not explaining why does not. What you typed was just what I was wondering. Whatever, ignore me, I've been drinking.

-Phoenix

[gasgod]

Not to beat the moribund horse, but ...

I tried to explain what my error was, even though it was a stupid silly moronic misread. Citanul was completely right in his comments. Mea culpa.

I had jotted down the chip stacks in order to do an ICM calculation. But I overlooked that hero had already bet t800, and used his adjusted chip count (after betting t800) as his starting chip count. Citanul could hardly be expected to take such an elementary blunder into account when he made his comments, which were exactly on the mark.

I am so embarrassed by this faux pas that i could crawl into the woodwork. I tried to "do the math" and failed miserably. Maybe next time I will do better; faulting citanul is well off the mark.

GG

[MUD]

I've been lurking for awhile but this thread finally got me to register.

gasgod was RIGHT to begin with.

ICM calculation:

Fold:
if mid stack wins: 32.6% of prize pool
if small stack wins: 30.0%

Call and Win:
47.3% of prize pool

Call and Lose:
26.4% if midstack wins
16.4% if smallstack wins


Ok now I think the small stack is the most likely to be ahead. His call Pre-flop screams AK or AQ. In fact this is how I would of played it(see if A or K hits, b/c nobody is folding to you preflop with only 800 extra chips). And the caller usually would be leading anyway. His chances of being ahead I put at 75%.

You're chances of winning the hand are 33% +/- 1 depending on if you give one player AK or one diamond. And Daliman NOBODY is on the same draw as you. JTd is the only possiblity and it probably wouldn't have called preflop.

SO, when you call and lose(assuming 75% the small stack is ahead and you don't beat the other stack), you will have on average 18.9% of the pool

18.9% * 67%= 12.6
47.0% * 33%= 15.6
ADD = 28.2% of prize pool

FOLDING= 30.9% (assuming short stack wins 75% of time)

It's a fold and its not even close. A college student like me could eat for a week on the money you save on this fold at a $30 table. Its still a 1.7% of prize pool fold if you assume the chances of either one winning are 50%

Other circumstances dictate a fold even more. Presumably you are better ITM than the other players. I know its where I make most of my money. Also if you call and small stack wins you're UTG next hand with 800 chips and almost no folding equity which the ICM doesn't take into consideration.

I'm sure you guys will let me know if I made any mistakes, but at least I think gasgod should get an apology.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been lurking for awhile but this thread finally got me to register.

gasgod was RIGHT to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wrong because I made a blunder, and was working with incorrect numbers. If my conclusion was correct, it was only by happenstance.

[/ QUOTE ]


ICM calculation:

Fold:
if mid stack wins: 32.6% of prize pool
if small stack wins: 30.0%

Call and Win:
47.3% of prize pool

Call and Lose:
26.4% if midstack wins
16.4% if smallstack wins


Ok now I think the small stack is the most likely to be ahead. His call Pre-flop screams AK or AQ. In fact this is how I would of played it(see if A or K hits, b/c nobody is folding to you preflop with only 800 extra chips). And the caller usually would be leading anyway. His chances of being ahead I put at 75%.

You're chances of winning the hand are 33% +/- 1 depending on if you give one player AK or one diamond. And Daliman NOBODY is on the same draw as you. JTd is the only possiblity and it probably wouldn't have called preflop.

SO, when you call and lose(assuming 75% the small stack is ahead and you don't beat the other stack), you will have on average 18.9% of the pool

18.9% * 67%= 12.6
47.0% * 33%= 15.6
ADD = 28.2% of prize pool

FOLDING= 30.9% (assuming short stack wins 75% of time)

It's a fold and its not even close. A college student like me could eat for a week on the money you save on this fold at a $30 table. Its still a 1.7% of prize pool fold if you assume the chances of either one winning are 50%

Other circumstances dictate a fold even more. Presumably you are better ITM than the other players. I know its where I make most of my money. Also if you call and small stack wins you're UTG next hand with 800 chips and almost no folding equity which the ICM doesn't take into consideration.

I'm sure you guys will let me know if I made any mistakes, but at least I think gasgod should get an apology.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. At best, I should get an honorable mention for being right for the wrong reason. Pretty dubious distinction.

GG

[MUD]

[ QUOTE ]


I disagree. At best, I should get an honorable mention for being right for the wrong reason. Pretty dubious distinction.

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

They were acting like you were approaching the problem from a completely wrong direction. You weren't. Pot odds are meaningless, and it is a simple ICM calculation. Your numbers were just slightly off.

[Myst]

Yeah what Dali said.