Pushing trash 5-handed, level 6 - but there's one player DC

[pergesu]

PattyMcFatty and I have been discussing this hand quite a bit. Running this through SNG PT says it's a clear push. But a huge consideration (which I failed to make while playing the hand), is that one of the players has been disconnected. Patty says that him being disconnected should make me more inclined to fold this, as I have one less opponent to deal with in subsequent hands. But I also have no idea how long this guy will be disconnected for. Interested in hearing opinions.



***** Hand History for Game 2115146378 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:12580927 Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Friday, May 27, 19:10:53 EDT 2005
Table Table 11477 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: manning99 ( $1080 )
Seat 5: declouet ( $715 )
Seat 3: HIGSTER ( $1895 )
Seat 7: frozensanka ( $1960 )
Seat 8: faldo2224 ( $2350 )
Trny:12580927 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to frozensanka [ 9s 3c ]
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
manning99 has been reconnected and has 20 seconds to act.
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
.
manning99 could not respond in time.(disconnected)
manning99 folds.
HIGSTER folds.
declouet folds.
frozensanka is all-In [1810]
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
faldo2224 calls [1660].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5s, 7d, Tc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jh ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5h ]
frozensanka shows [ 9s, 3c ] a pair of fives.
faldo2224 shows [ Ac, Kd ] a pair of fives.
faldo2224 wins 3920 chips from the main pot with a pair of fives with ace kicker.
frozensanka finished in fifth place.
frozensanka has left the table.
The Small Blind left the table. The Dealer button remains in place.
Game #2115151127 starts.

[DasLeben]

I went over this hand too, and still agree with the push. That is, of course, if BB has decent calling standards.

[PattyMcFatty]

I think you defenitely have assume he has lower standards, if you have no read. Just cause its 10+1

note - i dont ever play party poker. I am not accustomed to structures where you are forced to play like this. However, I think there is a multitude of reasons why he should fold here.. will share in a few

[tjh]

His disconnect has no substantial effect.

He has plenty of chips, reconnected and disconnected during this hand. He will not likely be gone for long. Plenty of chips also.

[DasLeben]

Well, I don't think that putting him on the "M" category in eastbay's program is the way to go (I doubt he'll be calling that loose), so I came up with a calling range of my own: 22+,A7o+,K9s+,KTo+,QTo+. Granted that's off the top of my head, but it seems reasonable enough. Using that range, it's +0.5% EV to push here, which I think it just too substantial to pass up at this blind level.

As for the disconnected player, there's no guarantee that he doesn't reconnect next hand. Because of that, I play this like he simply folded.

[PattyMcFatty]

I'll do this by deciphiring the arguement behind pushing. The idea is that its +EV and is necessary to mantain and not become in danger of bubbling out. Well, if he folds, hes sitting on 2k on the button Vs. a big stack and DC. One possibility is, big stack UTG raises (which pressures small to pick up a hand) and its folded to DC(this is good for hero). At the worst, small stack pushes with any two into hero, SB and DC BB. So , shorty has to pick up a hand VS UTG Bigstack, SB and hero. So in all likelyhood, short gets called here or forced to fold by bigstack. Even if he doesn't, and somehow its folded to DC, small stack has improved to 1k but DC has lost chips. Even IF (this is worst case) hero loses next round, he still has over 1500 chips to play with, with the DC player effectively gone. This is all assuming he gets no chance to steal, picks up no hands, or small stack isnt blinded and forced to pick up a hand this very round. Because if he does fold the subsequent hand, hes stuck in BB SUPER SHORT, and WILL be pressured. Also remember, if UTG and SS fold to hero next hand, he can miniraise because SB cannot play here unless its a push (if it is, he can fold and have 1.3k while small has like 300 in BB) So even IN worst case scenario, hes still 4 handed, around second stack. In the long run, I think folding here goes advantage to hero because stealing this 300 ultimately does not do THAT MUCH to win him the tourney.

[PattyMcFatty]

The disconnect has a very substantial effect. If hes gone for just one more hand, every thing I pointed out still breaks down.

[microbet]

I'm not sure I follow, but those all sound like good reasons for BB to have a tighter calling range.

I know, I know, it's and $11 and people aren't supposed to be thinking anything much, but when someone disconnects near the money, everyone's first thought is "let's coast into the money."

[PattyMcFatty]

My point is not about BB tightness. Point is I think hero has too many things going his way to risk an all in here. I dont think EV is enough to outweigh my previously mentioned factors..

[microbet]

Rereading my post, it's not so clear, but I knew that you were advocating a fold. I was just saying your reasons for folding are also reasons for BB to fold, making a push by the hero more profitable.

[PattyMcFatty]

Right.. I agree and like I said, I dont disagree that BB folds here the majority of the time. Or that its a terrible play.. but I think my post outlined a good alternative.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
In the long run, I think folding here goes advantage to hero because stealing this 300 ultimately does not do THAT MUCH to win him the tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is NOT how you think about SNG's. This type of thinking leads to horrible, horrible play.

First, it's really t450, because folding also drops your SB. Second, t450 is absolutely huge, especially with only a 2k stack. I said in a previous post that you should be in a "constant state of push after L5", and that's because t450 represents 1/20th of all chips in play, and because it's 1/4th of your stack.

BB folds 90% of hands here, and that's why this is an any 2 push.

5-handed, Hero needs to worry about getting enough chips for FE and getting 3-handed, not getting 4-handed. And t1500 is only 5x BB at this time. I don't feel very comfortable with 5x BB. Realize that with the t450 that you're going to be picking up 90% of the time, your stack changes for 6x BB to 7.5x BB.

Stealing is good. Stealing is good when it's folded to you in the SB. Picking up t450 here will win games. Not picking up t450 here is a big mistake.

With one player DCed, this is still a good push, precisely because being 4 handed with 5x BB sucks, while being 3-handed with 3x BB is worth folding premium steal spots such as these.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
PattyMcFatty and I have been discussing this hand quite a bit. Running this through SNG PT says it's a clear push. But a huge consideration (which I failed to make while playing the hand), is that one of the players has been disconnected. Patty says that him being disconnected should make me more inclined to fold this, as I have one less opponent to deal with in subsequent hands. But I also have no idea how long this guy will be disconnected for. Interested in hearing opinions.



***** Hand History for Game 2115146378 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:12580927 Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Friday, May 27, 19:10:53 EDT 2005
Table Table 11477 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: manning99 ( $1080 )
Seat 5: declouet ( $715 )
Seat 3: HIGSTER ( $1895 )
Seat 7: frozensanka ( $1960 )
Seat 8: faldo2224 ( $2350 )
Trny:12580927 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to frozensanka [ 9s 3c ]
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
manning99 has been reconnected and has 20 seconds to act.
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
.
manning99 could not respond in time.(disconnected)
manning99 folds.
HIGSTER folds.
declouet folds.
frozensanka is all-In [1810]
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
faldo2224 calls [1660].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5s, 7d, Tc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jh ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5h ]
frozensanka shows [ 9s, 3c ] a pair of fives.
faldo2224 shows [ Ac, Kd ] a pair of fives.
faldo2224 wins 3920 chips from the main pot with a pair of fives with ace kicker.
frozensanka finished in fifth place.
frozensanka has left the table.
The Small Blind left the table. The Dealer button remains in place.
Game #2115151127 starts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why people insist on pushing trash hands into big stacks.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why people insist on pushing trash hands into big stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's +EV? I'll do anything if it's +EV. I'm dirty like that.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why people insist on pushing trash hands into big stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's +EV? I'll do anything if it's +EV. I'm dirty like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

In what world is it +EV? It is poor tournament strategy. If you play all your hands regardless of stack sizes you will be doomed in tournaments. Chips=respect. Pushing 93o is showing no respect and if you do it you deserve to get busted. Play more aggressive toward short stacks who need to respect you, and more passively toward stacks that can bust you.

[AA suited]

pergesu,

depends on what you think bb's calling standard is. if it's top 25% cards, then it's push with any 2.

if it's top 50%, then fold 39o.

how's your table image? have you been stealing blinds in the past?

as for 1 player disco'd: it should make the bb even more tighter vs a raise from the #2 stack. i would push. you just got unlucky that he had ak.

now if this was the bubble (4 players), and 1 player disco, i would fold. no need to risk near 100% $ with 39o /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why people insist on pushing trash hands into big stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's +EV? I'll do anything if it's +EV. I'm dirty like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

In what world is it +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

My first answer is a world that has ICM.

That's good enough for me, so there's no second answer.

Edit: Also note that he only has 400 chips more than me. So I can't imagine he's like, "omfg this moran is trying to steal my blinds I'm gambooling with my J8s holla." If he calls and loses, he's crippled.

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing 93o is showing no respect and if you do it you deserve to get busted.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a function of respect though. This is a function of how often Hero is going to pick up the blinds vs. how often biggie is going to call and bust him vs. how often biggie is going to call and double him up.

It's straight up math, and the math says "gambooool."

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
pergesu,

depends on what you think bb's calling standard is. if it's top 25% cards, then it's push with any 2.

if it's top 50%, then fold 39o.

how's your table image? have you been stealing blinds in the past?

as for 1 player disco'd: it should make the bb even more tighter vs a raise from the #2 stack. i would push. you just got unlucky that he had ak.

now if this was the bubble (4 players), and 1 player disco, i would fold. no need to risk near 100% $ with 39o /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
He'd been playing conservatively up to this point, hadn't called any all-ins, and I hadn't been going crazy with steals. So I don't think he'd have a wide calling range. Certainly small enough that I felt this was an any 2 steal.

As for this being the bubble, that was something I discussed with PattyMcFatty. If we're four-handed, I'm folding without a second thought.