Need help counting outs on the flop.

[penisclaw]

I'm very new to the concept of EV and pot odds. Before about 2 weeks ago, I was playing poker entirely by gambling, and not figuring any odds or probabilities out. I finished SSHE about a week ago, but quite a bit of it was over my head. I started re-reading it again today, and I got back to the section on estimating outs. The ideas are sound, but the book does not give many examples of situations where I can see it in action, and I tend to learn best from example. So for that I turn to the experts here at 2+2. So I grabbed myself a deck of cards, and dealt myself a hand and a flop, until I had 5 reasonable situations with which I would need to count outs. I am going to post all 5 of them here. If anyone could take any or all of the presented hands and go through the process of counting outs, and explaining why each decision is the way it is so I can learn from it, I would be very grateful. And I'm sure it would help many other newbies in the same situation I'm in.

Hand 1
Hero holds: 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Flop is: J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Hand 2
Hero holds: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Flop is: 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Hand 3
Hero holds: 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Flops is: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Hand 4
Hero holds: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
Flop is: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Hand 5
Hero holds: J /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Flop is: K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Thanks again to anyone who can take the time to help me understand this concept.

[tinhat]

Actually, counting outs or not you'll always be gambling playing poker. I'm going to assume you want to be a BETTER gambler than you currently are.

Not to sound snotty but (IMO) I think it would be more productive FOR YOU to re-read the section(s) in sshe, take your best stab at calculating all outs, then post and see how many people take issue with your results.

Everyone is here to help so don't take this the wrong way but IMO doing it yourself is really the only way to actually learn...

Mike

[UncleSalty]

Welcome to the forums!

Firstly, it must be stressed that estimating outs does not occur in a vacuum. You need to evaluate your hand in the context of your opponent's behavior and what you know of their playing tendencies (Reads.)

Hand 1: You have middle pair and a BDFD. This is a tough one to start with, but I would say you have about 5-6 outs here, as long as no one is going crazy on the flop. The reason I say that is that you could be up against 2 pair, which makes 4's useless and means you will need to catch an 8 or a flush to win. Keep in mind that this assumes you are BEHIND already, which is not always the case.

Hand 2: This one is a little easier. I will always count your nine heart outs as full outs. (There is a small possibility that someone has a straight-flush draw here, but it's not worth worrying about because it happens so rarely.) The overcards would be an additional 6 full outs, as long as no one has AJ or QJ. Determining this just takes experience, but for the most part I will count overcards as 3-5 outs depending on how my opponents are acting.

Hand 3: This hand is so terrible I wouldn't even bother counting outs, but you essentially have nothing but a BDSD. I would value this hand at 1.5 outs at best, and you will almost never have odds to call a flop bet.

Hand 4: This is a pretty solid hand, as you are likely only behind AQ. Most of the time you don't need outs, your opponents do! In the event you do think you're behind, you can usually count the remaining K's and Q's as full outs, for 5, and the BDFD as 1.5 giving you about 6.5 outs. If the pot is big, you should call one bet even if you might be beat at the time.

Hand 5: This is tough with a coordinated board. Similar to hand 4, you will often have the best hand here and not be worried about counting outs. You need to determine by your opponents' betting behavior if they have a K. You can't value your jacks as full outs, so I'll count them as 1. You also can't value queens as full outs, because they will give AJ a bigger straight. The BDFD is to the 3rd nuts, so I won't give it the normal 1.5 out credit either, I'll just call it .5 - 1. So, I'd say you have about 4 outs here.

Again, estimating outs is part art and part science. Only experience will help you identify the nuances that will help you become really good at it. (Or so I keep telling myself! /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

Good luck!

[penisclaw]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, counting outs or not you'll always be gambling playing poker. I'm going to assume you want to be a BETTER gambler than you currently are.

Not to sound snotty but (IMO) I think it would be more productive FOR YOU to re-read the section(s) in sshe, take your best stab at calculating all outs, then post and see how many people take issue with your results.

Everyone is here to help so don't take this the wrong way but IMO doing it yourself is really the only way to actually learn...

Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense taken. I realize I need to do it myself to learn, but I need more help understanding the concepts before I can apply them myself, so I just need a few examples to get me going, which is what this post is for. Once I have a better idea I plan to go through the excersices myself until I have it down.

And thanks to UncleSalty for the analysis, thats exactly what I was looking for.

[teajay]

Another suggestion are the 10 exercices on page 110 for hidden outs. I do them every once in a while and still find that they help sharpen my out counting skills.

Travis

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2: This one is a little easier. I will always count your nine heart outs as full outs. (There is a small possibility that someone has a straight-flush draw here, but it's not worth worrying about because it happens so rarely.) The overcards would be an additional 6 full outs, as long as no one has AJ or QJ . Determining this just takes experience, but for the most part I will count overcards as 3-5 outs depending on how my opponents are acting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to be a nit, but what about AA, KK, QQ, JJ, A4, A7, Q4, Q7? Just making sure you and the OP consider all the possibilities. Great analysis btw. This probably helped the OP a lot, as well as yourself from doing the analysis. I think many of us could even gain by doing the same thing ourselves just as practise.

[silkyslim]

ill try:
1: 6
2: ~>14
3: 1.5
4: ? made hand ? 6.5 to improve
5: 6

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2: This one is a little easier. I will always count your nine heart outs as full outs. (There is a small possibility that someone has a straight-flush draw here, but it's not worth worrying about because it happens so rarely.) The overcards would be an additional 6 full outs, as long as no one has AJ or QJ . Determining this just takes experience, but for the most part I will count overcards as 3-5 outs depending on how my opponents are acting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to be a nit, but what about AA, KK, QQ, JJ, A4, A7, Q4, Q7? Just making sure you and the OP consider all the possibilities. Great analysis btw. This probably helped the OP a lot, as well as yourself from doing the analysis. I think many of us could even gain by doing the same thing ourselves just as practise.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a good point, and I actually did consider discussing it. However, you have to pick how detailed you want to get in the analysis absent any reads or actual hand action, so I was just being generic. The big half of those hands would usually alert you to their presence w/ a 3-bet PF, and the others are so random that you'd need to know that villain was donkish or playing from a blind to put him/her on them as a possibility.

But, it certainly underlines the point that there's a lot of art and nuance to this game!