Tough Turn Raise

[mojobluesman]

No read other than UTG did not seem particularly aggressive.

After UTG raised pre flop and on the turn, I made TT and AQ the the most logical hands (3 Ts or a STR8). If so that gave me 4 outs to a win or split. If he had 2 pair (or something else) I was probably getting enough pots odds to call.

In hindsight, I think this was a bad call. However, I didn't think the outs out quickly enough at the time. I didn't realize in "real time" that the 3rd K would give me trips, but him a full house.

How likely do you make it that he has trips or a STR8 relative to something else?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

[thesharpie]

I fold the turn. The best you can probably hope for is a split, and there are alot more ways for him to have a hand that you're drawing slim/dead against.

Edit: You could hope he has KQ.

[milesdyson]

You're getting 8:1, he can be value raising/semi bluffing a hand like KQ/QQ on the turn. You have outs to two pair and a gutshot to the nuts. You should call.*

You should also value bet the river.

*Do you have PT stats of the guy at least? That would at least give us a better range of hands. I could imagine folding the turn to some guys.

[kapw7]

Although your post suggests that you lost.
bet the river

[mojobluesman]

I don't do a lot of data mining and only had 20-30 hands to work with. I really had no idea of what he might be playing other than the range of hands I might be playing. He wasn't TAG, but he wasn't LAG either.

Even if I had some info on his raising standards from EP, how could I recall it fast enough to make a live decision?

[imported_Reaction]

First time trying this so any corrections/comments are welcomed.

Giving UTG raising standards of
AA-TT, AQ,AK AJs and KQs you are:

Behind to:
AA 3 ways
KK 1
JJ 3
TT 3
AQ 12

Behind 22 ways

Ahead of:
QQ 9 ways
AK 6
AJs 3
KQs 2

Ahead 20 ways

About even. I don't think calling down is bad here. Although if you can give UTG a larger range of raising hands then maybe even value betting the river is good.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
First time trying this so any corrections/comments are welcomed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget on the river there's only 1 combination of JJ left.

[deception5]

I think I call down after the turn raise. When he checks the river I'm fairly certain I'm against QQ/KQ/AK. I would probably have to bet for value as it would just be too unlikely for him to try to check/raise again. If I'm wrong I'll make a note on him.

[imported_Reaction]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget on the river there's only 1 combination of JJ left.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you.

I should have stated that I was refering to the turn and we did not know the river would bring a J.