Defending AK worth it?

[Atropos]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB ($146.87)
Hero ($223.7)
MP ($105.65)
CO ($68.2)
Button ($97.8)
SB ($104.7)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($6.50) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($16.50) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $45</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $100</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $161.50

My (bad) thought process: At the flop he would not bet a J, rather check-raise it. I wanted to represent AKs flush draw. When the flush gets there and I reraise him he has to fold everything but a flush or a Jack. He wont try to play back at me with junk at that point. But is defending AKo there even necessary? Problem is, that I'm better at making people lay down hands than at extracting value. So I will not get much money if I dominate A7 for example, but lose quite a bit when I run into 66/77.

[Atropos]

Does everyone here simply fold the flop? What hand range would you put BB on, considering he is quite an aggressive player who got called down by me several times and lost every single time?

[amoeba]

I like the way you played it if you were repping AKh.

but is he likely to laydown AJ?

who knows, you might have ran in to QQ.

[Atropos]

Is there a way to analyse this mathematically? Putting him on a range of hand and then seeing how often he would have to fold to make this play +EV? If this play is slightly -EV it would be ok too, since it would make my future postflop play easier with AKo since opponents know I'm not to be bluffed out.

[meow_meow]

It would have been cheaper for you to raise on the flop. Any further action from him - betting out on the turn or check raising if you put in a bet, and you let it go.

[Godfather80]

I think this hand is interesting, moreso since you told us you were trying to rep AKs with your turn raise. My only addition to the discussion comes by way of a question: if you had raised to $15 on the flop rather than smoothcalling, would that have told you what you needed to know?

If he calls, you probably have to check down. If he reraises, you're adios. Is my logic right?

[Atropos]

"If he calls, you probably have to check down. If he reraises, you're adios. Is my logic right?"

Yes I thought the same when considering a reraise. Only problem is that my opponent was quite aggressive, if he had a flush draw he might have pushed all-in and I wouldnt have been able to call. I read him as a mmh lets call it "standard tricky" player. What do I mean by it?

Bet Flop = Flush Draw//never a Jack, he would checkraise it
Bet Turn after betting Flop: No Flush, because he would checkraise it after hitting how

I did not see that he could have anything reasonable when he bet the turn, however I was wrong /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[hvillethugg]

I don't understand why you smooth call the flop? You missed your hand, which means the only way you're going to win is to make him lay his hand down. You need more information...a raise is in order. Raise him to 15 or 20...if he lays it down, you're happy to take it. If he calls, you try to check it down in hopes of hitting an A or K or otherwise having the best hand. If he plays back, you run. Reraising on the turn is too expensive, and almost always looks like a steal with that flush or straight card hits. You're pretty likely to get callers on that reraise when you're playing with weak players. I would have raised the flop, and then tried to check it down.