Ok, I have a serious pet peeve...

[mosdef]

And I know many of you won't care or understand, but...

Can we please, please, please stop abusing and disusing the word "variance" on this forum. I wince in pain, honest-to-goodness pain, when I read the following posts which come up time and time again.

"I'm down x buy-ins over the past month, but that's just variance and ...",

or

"I know it might just be variance, but I've got a lot of 5th place finishes and ..."

Everybody please stay with me here. Variance is a very specific probability concept. It is a measure of the degree of spread in the probability distribution that defines a random variable. It is NOT a catch-all word to justify your losing streaks. If you finish 5th time and again, that's not an indicator that the variance demon is out to get you. If you have lost 20 buyins over a few weeks, that's not a sign of "bad variance". Variance is neither good nor bad. If you finish last everytime your variance of results is 0, but that's not good. If you finished first half the time and last half the time, your variance would be pretty damn high, but that's not bad - your ROI would be sweet.

So in conclusion, everyone here who hasn't read a graduate text in probability theory from cover to cover should never, ever post again. Well, maybe that's a little extreme. But honestly guys, please help me out here.

[Moonsugar]

You need to get over this pet peeve or stop reading the forums, it is only going to get worse.

[mosdef]

I don't think it should be my responsibility to get over my pet peeve. I think everyone should be required to put in their post subjects "Hey, mosdef, I am using the word variance in this post in a reckless and cavalier fashion so please do not read!" if they are going to use the word variance in this post in a reckless and cavalier fashion.

[pooh74]

I think it is understood here that it refers to a "random walk" from the mean. Whether this is the correct usage or not is a matter of debate but when someone writes "negative or positive variance" I think about it that way...there has been a deviation from there average play. What someone's mean play is another subject for debate as well.

Oh and:

Can we please, please, please stop abusing and disusing the word "variance" on this forum.

If you agree not to say "disuse" I won't say variance. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[mosdef]

No deal.

[citanul]

i think that you've just seen an abnormal amount of misuses of the word variance lately. don't worry, it's just variance. it'll all even out.

citanul

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
i think that you've just seen an abnormal amount of misuses of the word variance lately. don't worry, it's just variance. it'll all even out.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

nh

[mosdef]

Also, I am willing to bet that the people who post the type of thing I'm talking about don't know anything about random walks.

A small number might, but that would just be because of bad variance.

[Taraz]

HA!

[jah0550]

[ QUOTE ]
i think that you've just seen an abnormal amount of misuses of the word variance lately. don't worry, it's just variance. it'll all even out.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]
LMAO

Who cares how you use the word? a) get over it, because people will keep using it(even though many of them probably don't know what variance is and use it to sound smart) b) get a freakin life...have you seen the gammer used in this forum?

Get your panties out of a bunch and stop wasting my time reading these worthless posts. NO ONE CARES AND THEY WILL KEEP USING IT!!

[lorinda]

http://us.movies1.yimg.com/movies.yahoo.com/images/hv/photo/movie_pix/paramount_pictures/the_italian_job/mos_def/italian.jpg

"I hate random walks."

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
have you seen the gammer used in this forum?


[/ QUOTE ]

LOL
A real LOL too, not just a typed one.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
i think that you've just seen an abnormal amount of misuses of the word variance lately. don't worry, it's just variance. it'll all even out.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

he shoots he scores

[mosdef]

Okay, consider my panties unbunched.

Honestly, my degree of peeve was overstated (my post is a little tongue-in-cheek), but I really do think a lot of people (not necessarily you or anyone else reading this) may want to think about what people mean by "good" and "bad" variance. A lot of folks here seem to think that bad variance explains everything bad that happens to their bankrolls.

[citanul]

puh-lease, we all know there's no variance bogeyman that controls our swings.

if you'll please excuse me, i have to go sacrifice a virgin.

citanul

[xLukex]

Black on Both Sides and the Blackstar album are two of the best hip hop albums ever.

*wakes up*

Your handle is mosdef, you [censored] nerd.

[mosdef]

Sorry, I'll change it to something much more clever and stimulating. Maybe "xStevex". Yeah, that's sounds good.

[Voltron87]

this is my pet peeve, i don't actually believe this just happened.

***** Hand History for Game 2113695226 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:12573070 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Friday, May 27, 12:50:03 EDT 2005
Table Table 13791 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: murcdawg ( $785 )
Seat 2: KofPentacles ( $810 )
Seat 3: irishfunk ( $800 )
Seat 4: JohnnyRouge ( $875 )
Seat 5: AmyTan ( $715 )
Seat 6: greenturtle2 ( $770 )
Seat 8: sepher28 ( $110 )
Seat 9: Szechuan87 ( $775 )
Seat 10: Losyara ( $2360 )
Trny:12573070 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Szechuan87 [ Kd Ah ]
sepher28: it's not "pp for ya"
KofPentacles folds.
irishfunk calls [15].
sepher28: it's "poker for ya"
JohnnyRouge folds.
AmyTan calls [15].
greenturtle2 raises [85].
sepher28 folds.
Szechuan87 raises [300].
JohnnyRouge: i have had some of the worst beats in history b/c of this site
Losyara folds.
murcdawg folds.
irishfunk folds.
sepher28: then why do you play here
AmyTan folds.
JohnnyRouge: quads losing to quads...
greenturtle2 calls [215].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, 7h, Qs ]
greenturtle2 checks.
Szechuan87 is all-In [475]
greenturtle2 is all-In [470]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
** Dealing River ** [ Jh ]
greenturtle2 shows [ 9c, Jc ] two pairs, queens and jacks.
Szechuan87 shows [ Kd, Ah ] a pair of queens.
Szechuan87 wins 5 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of queens.
greenturtle2 wins 1595 chips from the main pot with two pairs, queens and jacks.
honestly, its the easiest site to navigate

[Unarmed]

Guy you seriously butchered that hand. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

EDIT: I am so not good enough to have 1000 posts. Maybe I'll start a new account...

[mosdef]

That is some bad variance.

[mosdef]

He did not idiot. Bad variance made him lose.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
He did not idiot. Bad variance made him lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

F*ck off noob. /images/graemlins/grin.gif
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH where did Vida go /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[bluefeet]

did you run around the virtual casino yell-laughing "JACK HIGH!!!.....JACK HIGH!!!!, HE CALLED ME WITH JACK HIGH!!!"

(sorry, that guy cracks me up)

[Moonsugar]

good luck on that

[dfscott]

You need to broaden your thinking a bit:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
var·i·ance (vâr-ns, vr-)
n.

1. a. The act of varying.
b. The state or quality of being variant or variable; a variation.
c. A difference between what is expected and what actually occurs.
2. The state or fact of differing or of being in conflict.
3. Law.
a. A discrepancy between two statements or documents in a proceeding.
b. License to engage in an act contrary to a usual rule: a zoning variance.
4. Statistics. The square of the standard deviation.
5. Chemistry. The number of thermodynamic variables, such as temperature and pressure, required to specify a state of equilibrium of a system, given by the phase rule </pre><hr />

I think you are thinking about #4 (or a more precise derivative). I think a lot of people, while thinking that they are talking about #4, are really talking about 1-c. If you allow for that possibility, you can consider them imprecise instead of just wrong. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[mosdef]

Citanul couldn't find a virgin to sacrifice, so Vida's getting it instead.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
That is some bad variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

now you're in the spirit.

citanul

[Voltron87]

if he had had the flush draw i could have at least just brushed it off as a chaser... but i don't see how anyone can make that play.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
Citanul couldn't find a virgin to sacrifice, so Vida's getting it instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok thats fine, Cit can hit that if he wants. Have her home by midnight.

[citanul]

what you didn't see ZJ's post about calling with the nut low to make a new image for yourself?

citanul

[citanul]

for some reason today has been all about new adjectives, for vida, the adjective is Asstastic.

citanul

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it should be my responsibility to get over my pet peeve. I think everyone should be required to put in their post subjects "Hey, mosdef, I am using the word variance in this post in a reckless and cavalier fashion so please do not read!" if they are going to use the word variance in this post in a reckless and cavalier fashion.

[/ QUOTE ]

It should be OUR responsibility to get over your pet peeve? For you? heheheh

I don't think this was ever billed as a forum for irritable jargon purists.

[mosdef]

Fair enough. But, as I've pointed out in some follow-up posts, I was actually joking about being really upset about this.

That said, it is my heartfelt belief that the infestation of posts with the word "variance" comes from the statistical analysis that has been done over the last year or so on the forum talking about how many SNGs you need to get a feel for your actual ROI and confidence intervals for results and all that fun stuff. My point (I think I had one at one point) is that losing streaks are often bad luck. But variance is not equivalent to bad luck. It's not even equivalent to bad performance. You can increase your ROI while jacking up your variance by changing your style.

[mosdef]

I'm really not that irritable when you get to know me.

Moron.

[Blarg]

For the pure cosmic joy of it, obviously.

[Voltron87]

its not like this is an isolated incident or anything, people do this to me ALL THE TIME. that is why i am playing the 22s. because they give you their money.

another gem:

***** Hand History for Game 2105504476 *****
15/30 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 12527925) - WED MAY 25 20:45:18 EDT 2005
Table Table 14103 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: GiveMoMoney (800)
Seat 2: tarasoff (800)
Seat 3: EthanWillWin (800)
Seat 4: chevysilvr04 (800)
Seat 5: Bobig (800)
Seat 6: topcat1680 (800)
Seat 7: Szechuan87 (800)
Seat 8: Tmoney9900 (800)
Seat 9: volante (800)
Seat 10: Wickerbicker (800)
GiveMoMoney posts small blind (10)
tarasoff posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Szechuan87 [ Jc, Jd ]
EthanWillWin folds.
chevysilvr04 folds.
Bobig folds.
topcat1680 folds.
Szechuan87 raises (90) to 90
Tmoney9900 folds.
volante calls (90)
Wickerbicker calls (90)
GiveMoMoney folds.
tarasoff folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Js, Kh, 7d ]
Szechuan87 bets (150)
volante raises (710) to 710
volante is all-In.
Wickerbicker calls (710)
Wickerbicker is all-In.
Szechuan87 calls (560)
Szechuan87 is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Td ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 3s ]
Creating Main Pot with $2425 with Szechuan87,volante,Wickerbicker
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2425
Board: [ Js Kh 7d Td 3s ]
GiveMoMoney balance 790, lost 10 (folded)
tarasoff balance 785, lost 15 (folded)
EthanWillWin balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
chevysilvr04 balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
Bobig balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
topcat1680 balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
Szechuan87 balance 2425, bet 800, collected 2425, net +1625 [ Jc Jd ] [ three of a kind, jacks -- Kh,Jc,Jd,Js,Td ]
Tmoney9900 balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
volante balance 0, lost 800 [ Ah Kd ] [ a pair of kings -- Ah,Kd,Kh,Js,Td ]
Wickerbicker balance 0, lost 800 [ Qd Qh ] [ a pair of queens -- Kh,Qd,Qh,Js,Td ]



the guy overcalled all in with QQ on a KJ7 board. i have 2400 chips.

[Blarg]

LOL.

[Voltron87]

if i wasn't doing so well i would have flipped out there. sucess does help you deal with bad beats, im not even bothered by that too much. if i was even for the last 40 sngs i would have hunted him down and pulled yugo. ive never seen the spite call on level one like that.

[citanul]

is it bad that since this jesus guy has started posting, i now hate all christians?

citanul

[citanul]

hm, PVS gets a good play named after him, Yugo gets "a yugo" to be something involving raping, skullfucking, beatings, and urination... seems like he got a raw deal.

citanul

[SuitedSixes]

*WHEW* For a minute there I was afraid this was going to be about something trivial and silly.

[Blarg]

Jeez, that's sweet and worked out perfectly.