I am weak as hell

[TheWorstPlayer]

Live home game. Good game. Bad seat. 1/1 blinds. 100 buyin. 5 handed.

UTG: Best player at table. Good hand reader. Beats much bigger games (30/60, etc.) ~120
MP: On the poor side of decent. Tight. Passive. ~150
BN: Decent player. Tight. Passive. ~100
SB: On the poor side of decent. Loose. Aggro. ~120
BB: Hero. Loose. Aggro. ~100

UTG raises to $4. MP calls. BN folds. SB calls. Hero calls with 77.

Flop: 652r. Checked around.
Turn: 10. SB checks, Hero bets 10, UTG raises to 30. Folds back to Hero. What's my play?

[wdeadwyler]

I dunno why you checked the flop. That aside I guess I fold here, unless u think villain might fold a better hand to a reraise... I would fold 90% of the time here, barring a great read. You play much higher stakes than me from what I gather so I don't know why this is atoughie. Am I missing something?

[slupo]

I agree with previous poster: why check the flop? The flop is pretty darn good for a pair of 7's. You don't want to see any more cards from that point.

Overcard comes on the turn. You get a nice re-raise. You have a pair of 7's with no other draws. Get out of the hand.

[TheWorstPlayer]

OK, I should have mentioned initially that UTG had called about 60% of my preflop raises and had raised about 80% of my postflop bets. I am not used to playing with such aggressive players and he certainly read that I was weak. He had also correctly called me down with ace high on three streets previously OOP.

Anyways, I just want to know if everyone thinks I made a mistake by not betting the flop (seems like they do) and if anyone calls, given the history and aggro nature of UTG, and if so, what is their plan for the river?

[PinkSteel]

I don't think it's weak at all. I wouldn't even have bet the turn.

The best player at the table raised 4xBB UTG preflop, and two other tight players called. What are the chances a PP higher than your 7s is still in the hand?

You called preflop for set value, you missed, you're OOP, check/fold.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Even though it's 5 handed and he's super aggro?

[PinkSteel]

Understood, even though its 5-handed and he's super aggro. He didn't just raise into you, he raised into two other tight players, against whom he's OOP, with a card to go. Maybe he really thought his 4-way fold equity was that high, but I think he's got a hand. He's at least got a few outs. You have 2. This just looks like a great way to win a little or lose a lot.

Then again, maybe I'm weaker than hell....

[Ghazban]

Query for you: why check the flop and then bet the turn when a big (ish) card hits? I could see betting out on the flop or checking and then check/calling or check/raising the turn but this line I don't understand. In my experience, it is almost always somebody with a small-mid pair who didn't hit their set but thinks the preflop raiser must not have an overpair as he didn't bet the flop. If he reads this the same way I do, he can raise and put you to a tough decision whether he has a hand or not. Playing predictably against good hand readers = bad.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I could easily have a set here. Or the nuts. I would fairly regularly play both like this where I'm hoping to trap the field on the flop when the PFR continues.

[Ghazban]

That explains your flop check but not your turn bet. Would you lead the turn with a set or hope somebody would bet it for you this time? In a live game, your reaction to his turn raise might give away your holding. I'm not accusing you of being a giant tellbag; its just that its often easy to tell when someone in a live game has a tough decision to make (though that doesn't always help as you don't always know why its a tough decision)-- with a set, his raise doesn't put you to a tough decision at all as you are happy to see it. Without a set, a raise makes you want to throw up. When you bet the turn, did you have a (general) plan of what to do if you got raised?

[TheWorstPlayer]

My general plan was to fold. But I felt like I had to bet to protect my hand at that point. And I didn't think anyone would raise with a worse hand since 652 is actually pretty likely to hit someone who calls a raise here. A set or two pair or straight is pretty likely for someone betting into the preflop raiser (albeit on the turn). And, yes, I would play, say, the nuts exactly like this. I would check the flop, either to check/raise if I got some callers before me or to call and then lead the turn hoping to get raised with my weird SNG. If it got checked around on the flop, I would lead the turn, of course, trying to build the pot now that my check/raise whiffed. If I really had a straight here, I would probably call the turn and bet 40 on the river. Same for a set. With just mid pair, though, I think it's an easy fold. If the raise were from late position, I would have led the flop, but since it is directly into the preflop raiser, I'm not sure if it is the best play since I probably wouldn't make it with a set. I would be more likely to c/r to trap the field.

[Ghazban]

Just curious as to the method to your madness. As it played out, folding to the turn raise is the best option. You might have the best hand but it will cost you a lot to find out.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I was wondering about that, too. If stacks were deeper, I would have definitely called and checked to him on the river because he would have to fear a check/raise on the river. But with stacks these shallow, I think I would probably just value bet the river since I can get at least half his stack guaranteed, that way. What do you think about that? If you were he and I called the turn and checked the river, would you check behind with unimproved overcards? If you were in my spot and he bet 40 on the river, do you think I should call? If I call the turn, I think I have to be willing to call any bet on the river if I check to him (which I obviously don't like, which is why I folded).

[Ghazban]

I agree that calling the turn raise puts you in a position where you have to be willing to call a robust bet on the river, too (unless the river is an ace, then I think you can probably fold safely and, if he happened to have KQ this time, good for him). Whether or not he'd fire again (as a bluff or as a thin value bet with a one-pair hand) is player- and situation-dependent.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Maybe it's best to call turn and lead river for $40? That should be scary enough that he's certainly not raising with a worse hand, and he MAY even fold a better hand. That's a lot of money to put into the pot with second pair, though. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[TrailofTears]

Gogg, what about a turn flat-call, river lead/push. This screams strength and might be enough to fold out villain UI. Also, I am not altogether convinced that you are beat here.

-T

[Ghazban]

Actually, the best play would be to spike your set on the river, checkraise him all-in and send him on super monkey tilt, lavishly spreading a few more buyins around to the rest of the table. I can't believe nobody in this thread has come up with this simple solution....


Seriously, though, calling the raise and betting $40 on the river can't be good. I don't think anything you beat calls $40 but he might bluff again. If you really want to get to showdown, I think calling turn and check/calling river is better. You still lose about the same when you're behind but you snap off a river bluff that wouldn't have called your river bet so you win more when you're ahead.

[amoeba]

I don't think a good player checks the flop with Ts and checks the turns when he sets so I don't really put him on TT. 88-99, JJ-AA bets the flop 3 way.

how likely is he to raise UTG with 66, 55?

I call the turn and call a reasonable bet on the river.

[amoeba]

actually the more I think about it, the more I like the call the turn raise, push the river line especially if an A or K pops.

might as well follow through with your initial representation of a set.

[TheWorstPlayer]

It was four way. And no one had been slowplaying anything all night, if that matters. And I had been bluffing like a madman and showing it. Which was good with everyone else because it meant they called me down with marginal hands (I had been up 150 at one point - until I got all in with KK against AA preflop for 100 - oops!) but it was bad with this guy because it meant he raised me all the time. And I just really think I played this very weakly. I do think that flop check has GOT to be weakness and then his raise of MY bet just means he doesn't believe I have anything strong. This player is a very strong player who will certainly make that move. I was very very weak on this, wasn't I?

[Lawrence Ng]

I'd fire a re-raise all-in and confuse the [censored] right out of him, make him lay down the winner.

Lawrence

[amoeba]

I like this better in the rare event he has AA/KK and hits the river.