Did I run into an expert?

[Lapper]

I was just playing a single table tournament, $200 buy in and something happened that makes me question everything I know about poker.

I was second chip leader at the table with 2060 chips. The chip leader had about 2600. The blinds at this point were $25 - $50. The chip leader is two off the button and I am the big blind. The player under the gun limps in and so does the chip leader and everybody else folds. I check with 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, the Doyle Brunson hand. So, there is $150 in the pot. The flop comes 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, giving me two pair and a backdoor flush draw. Since everybody limped in I figured that was a decent hand, but I was afarid of the flush draws so I bet the pot $150 figuring I'd make it expensive for the flush draws. The player directly to my left folded but the chip leader called. So, there is now $450 in the pot. The turn comes A /images/graemlins/spade.gif giving me my flush draw along with my two pair, but since it is an A there is a possibility of a better two pair or even trips, if he was slow playing AA. He could also have had a better flush draw than me with the hearts or even with the spades. The one thing I didn't put him on was 99, because if I had 99 and the flop gave me trips but there was a flush draw, I would raise, or even go all-in to try to get the flush draws to fold, or at least make it so expensive for them that if they did suck it out, I could give them credit for having guts. So, I bet again, this time $450 and again he just called. By him calling I definitely put him on the flush draw.

The river comes 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif, giving me twos full of tens, which I naturally thought was the best hand, so I put in a small bet, thinking if he did have A9, or A with a big kicker and he raised me, I'd reraise all in. That is exactly what happened and he turns over 99, giving him a better full house.

My question to all of you out there is this, did I run into someone who really made an expert play on me and my analysis is flawed, so I need to go back to the drawing board and study some more? Or, was he just afraid the I had pocket Aces when the turn came with the A? I can't believe that would be true. If that is such an expert play that I need to rethink my own playing strategies, tell me what would he have done had the third heart or third spade come and I went all in? Would he then fold his 99? It seems to me that the aggressive play that I am used to, where you play trips aggressively, is a better play over the long run than trying to slow play them, especially with flush draws on the board, but maybe I haven't been playing long enough to know that.

Also, let me say, this play was made online and I am certain I never played with this guy before, so there is no way he could have had some kind of read on me, unless he got some information from one of those Web tracking sites.

Anyway, I would be interested in answers from some of you real poker experts out there.

[DasLeben]

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Did I run into an expert?

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I was just playing a single table tournament, $200 buy in

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Nah. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[bluefeet]

<-- not a poker 'expert', so I don't know if this will make you feel better, but....

I would have made the same exact read. If I'm holding trips, I'm 'most always' raising you on the flop -- certainly on the turn with 2 flush draws (though the latter draw would be less a scare than the first IMO). Anyways...he's getting all of my money.

Perhaps a leak in my own game. If I'm villian, I'm often left wondering if I obtained full value on my hand -- by not 'gambling' to see another card...take more chips, etc.

[Lapper]

Thanks for the support, I appreciate it. I wonder what David Sklansky would say. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[viennagreen]

the two of you were the chipleaders, him ahead a by bit right?

so, many times it's better to play a little softer against someone who can cripple you. i'm sure he thought he had the best hand the whole way-- he just preferred to keep the pot small, win more if you missed a flush draw or lose less if you did hit a flush....

i don't know which is a better play--- playing the trips aggressively or letting you possibly draw to a flush... i think that the answer depends on what percentage of his chips he is risking.

but over the long run, with the amount that you were betting for him, it would be incorrect for you to be drawing to a flush... say you were just calling, and he was betting--- 150 on the flop and 450 on the turn would be reasonable bets for him to make.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Did I run into an expert?

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I was just playing a single table tournament, $200 buy in

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Nah. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
what das said


him slowplaying a set on a heavy draw board makes me suspect that he wasn't though. Unless of course he knew that you are too weak to bet a draw (which i'm guessing most aren't at the $200s).

[Lapper]

So, in other words, you are saying that if he did put me on the flush draw and I was making the bets I was making, I was actually betting for him the correct amount to make it unprofitable for me?

I do see the point, that I was betting first, so it is unlikely that I would be betting a flush draw. Had I checked, then he probably would have bet, giving me the decision to make.

I wonder what he put me on? My guess is since I limped in on the big blind, and then bet the flop and the turn, that he probably put me on A-10, A-9, or even A-2. He may have even put me on the hand that I had.

Given that scenario, maybe his play was smart. He wasn't afraid of the flush draw and if his analysis was correct, I am drawing to a two outer, and if I did hit my smaller full house, as I did, he still had me beat, like he did and he would take all my chips, like he did. Hmm!

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
the two of you were the chipleaders, him ahead a by bit right?

so, many times it's better to play a little softer against someone who can cripple you. i'm sure he thought he had the best hand the whole way-- he just preferred to keep the pot small, win more if you missed a flush draw or lose less if you did hit a flush....

i don't know which is a better play--- playing the trips aggressively or letting you possibly draw to a flush... i think that the answer depends on what percentage of his chips he is risking.

but over the long run, with the amount that you were betting for him, it would be incorrect for you to be drawing to a flush... say you were just calling, and he was betting--- 150 on the flop and 450 on the turn would be reasonable bets for him to make.

[/ QUOTE ]

well done! ty.

[viennagreen]

Yes.

And because you were betting the amounts that he would most likely be betting, he had the advantage of disguising his hand by just calling--- possibly inducing a bluff from you on the river.

I doubt if he knew with any degree of certainty what you had at any point in the hand, but figured to be ahead with most likely possibilities.

[Lapper]

Thank you for the insight. I will reevaluate my own play and hopefully learn something from this.

[derdo]

I think, this argument that "hero was making the correct bets for the villian so he didn't need to raise to punish the flush draw" doesn't make sense. There is no difference in just checking and giving a free card and just calling.
The bet is already in the pot. At that point if he just calls, he is giving you a free card not punishing your draw at all.

[viennagreen]

No--- i don't think that you are correct.

If it costs a pot-sized bet heads-up on the turn to see the river card--- a flush draw is being punished regardless of whether they were the bettor or the caller....

[rickr]

With the pot bet on the flop Villian really has no reason to think you are on a flush draw. Very few players will bet a draw that hard. In his mind, if he was thinking, was that you were holding top pair, or overpair, trying hard to drive out the draws. Think about it. He is against the other big stack, holding middle set, on a flush draw. With those bets he has to feel he is ahead, or at least has outs. But with the draw on the board, he may feel it costs him too much to get you to drop a hand that you really seem to like, so he decided to keep the pot small until he saw the board.

Or he was simply a donk who never even saw past the 9 on the flop and was going to slowplay it no matter what.

Later,
Rick

[Voltron87]

i go broke here approximately... 100% of the time.

this is unfoldable. what is beating you, 99, aa, a2, and tt. not too much. you also have 40bb chip stacks, which is very short. so you played the hand fine, just ran into a better one. do not worry about folding full houses when there is heavy action. unless you have 45 and the flop is 55993, or something like that.

[shadyridr]

Ive found it better not to try to figure out what the other person is thinking because most other players are idiots and dont play things the way I would which ends up screwing me up more in the long run.

[jon_1van]

I don't know. If I'm in the chip leaders shoes and I see you make a full pot bet at the flush draw board I'd be more likely to put you on a random T (not a 9 because I see 3 of the 4) than anything else. A full pot bet here seems a bit too much for a scraggly flush draw. I don't think the chip leader can put you on a nice high flush draw because if you are sitting there with AKs, AQs, and maybe AJs you might throw in a big raise preflop. The CL can also rule out TT because you'd probably raise that too...and its rare to see set over set....see worrying about this hand is dumb

So, I think your flop bet screamed "please fold". In which case someone sitting there with a set might believe that a free card isn't to scary because he probably believe that very few cards that actually put you ahead of him.

[jon_1van]

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If it costs a pot-sized bet heads-up on the turn to see the river card--- a flush draw is being punished regardless of whether they were the bettor or the caller....

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True, but you are still passing up an oppurtunity to punish the flush draw more, which is technically a mistake VIA FTOP

[rickr]

[ QUOTE ]
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If it costs a pot-sized bet heads-up on the turn to see the river card--- a flush draw is being punished regardless of whether they were the bettor or the caller....

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but you are still passing up an oppurtunity to punish the flush draw more, which is technically a mistake VIA FTOP

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you be punishing him more? You are not punishing the draws. That's not what the raise is for. When the draw bet pot, by calling, you are giving him 2:1 odds. If you raise back, say 450 more, he has to call 450 into a pot of 1350, making that call correct. Am I missing something here?

Later,
Rick

[swarm]

I don't know about expert...

I think the villan took a definite, but calculated risk in letting you lead the hand. He hit trips against the other chip leader, a well played hand here can win a tournament for you.

Too bad that a spade or 10 didn't come on the river. Villan had no idea how close he came to hanging himself and making you the one with all the chips...

[jon_1van]

If Mr.99 puts in a flop raise of 450 (thus making it 600 to go) like you suggest our Hero will have to call 450 more for a pot that has 925 in it.

(25 + 50 + 50 + 50) + (150) + (600)

Our hero will the be faced with another 2:1 odds situation. And it would be wrong to draw to that with a flush draw and shallowish stacks. But after a while the Hero will be faced with a "the only way I can have a shot at all is if I get lucky here decision". So calls are more and more likely as the betting goes on

[Che]

Reasons why you can slowplay sets with position vs. flush draws:

1. The flush draw only comes in 1 time in 5. If the opponent checks a non-flush turn, you bet (and are therefore no longer slowplaying).
2. If the flush card comes in on the turn, most opponents with the flush will check "to trap" you and then bet the river small "to get value" since they don't want to scare you off. Thus, you get a free draw to 10 outs on the turn PLUS you are usually priced in to call the river since they frequently don't have the flush and your set is good despite the board 3-flush.
3. If the flush comes in on the river, most opponents bet small (see comments above).
4. The opponent doesn't even have a flush draw in the first place a *big* majority of the time when you look at the probability of being dealt 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif's when 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif's come on the flop. You don't use the pure math unadjusted as the hand develops since his betting pattern will increase or decrease the probability that he has a flush draw, but you need to be aware of it. In this particular hand, our hero's actions were not representing flush draw so that is a point in favor of slowplaying the set of 9's.
5. If the villain does bet big on a flush card, grit your teeth and call a decent % of the time. If you fold your set every time a flush card hits in a tough game, you'll get killed.

Later,
Che

[Che]

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How would you be punishing him more? You are not punishing the draws. That's not what the raise is for.

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If you call his bet, he sees the next card for no further investment (i.e. for free) since the chips he already bet are sunk cost. The only way to make him 'pay' at this point is to raise.

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If you raise back, say 450 more, he has to call 450 into a pot of 1350, making that call correct.

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The call is (roughly) correct if he gets to see 2 cards for that price. But, if calling only gets him 1 card for a 2:1 price when the odds are 4:1 against him, the call is incorrect unless he is very confident that he can make up the difference via implied odds.

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Am I missing something here?

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Yes, the concept of sunk cost. Said another way - understanding that calling a bet gives a draw infinite odds to catch up with you. This is a very important concept so think about it a while and make sure you get it.

(Not trying to be condescending in any way. Merely trying to point out that this is important and needs to be understood.)

Later,
Che

[rickr]

My problem with that is you are building a pot that will be very hard to get away from against a stack that can bust you out. I think a decent raise as you say on the flop is very dangerous. So many people who would drop the draw on the turn will not do so on the flop.

If I'm villian, my thoughts would be, "He's priced himself out for the draw, so raising only builds the pot. I've got position, so I'll wait for a blank on the turn and raise it up." Hero's full pot bet on the turn, I would have been "What the H*** does he have? I'm 99% sure I'm ahead here." But the only way I'm really giving him bad odds at this point is a push (Which is what I would do here). My guess at this point was villian was seeing monsters, but couldn't give up his set.

Later,
Rick

[jon_1van]

If you're the villian why wouldn't you think ::

"It is very very unlikely I am behind now. If I'm facing a flush draw I want my opponent to put in a truck load of money because most of the time he won't make his flush. And even if he does make his flush I might hit the full house. Won't it be awesome to go from slight chipleader to huge chipleader. Wait, Wait, before I get ahead of myself....how should I play this to get the most money in the pot??? If I just call this bet my opponent could very well bet any brick AND check any flush card. That sounds like a reciepe for doubling up or surviving if I'm behind. Lets do that"


It would be great if we could get some money in the pot now. Watch the turn blank. And the pick up a decent pot with very little risk. This is a workable plan for a long, long tourney. But in these SNGs you don't have much time to wait for better spots. So if you think you have a decent edge. (you will win this 75% of the time even if you know the opponent has Ts 2s, and you'll win 82% if you put the opponent on the OESD + flush draw 68s). Try to get the money in.

[rickr]

Not disagreeing with you. I was simply trying to give an idea as to villians train of thought. Myself, I hate slowplaying anything short of the nuts when someone out of position shows that they really like there hand and I'm a favorite to be ahead. As in this case, I seriously doubt that hero would have layed down to a push, much less a raise. How could he? How often are you going to lay down 2 pair here. As someone said, I'm losing all my stack on this board, then cussing myself later.

The slowplay here is dangerous. I don't really even believe it was a slowplay. More likely someone that couldn't give up the set who got lucky.

My interest now is in thinking more about this sunk money idea. Got to ponder it more.

Later,
Rick

[jedi]

So my question is: Can you, playing as villain in this hand, lay down your set of 9s when the 3rd /images/graemlins/heart.gif hits the board against the 2nd chip leader?

I run into this situation all the time, and I'm STILL fearful that I'm always being pushed around by someone bluffing the scare card. If I were villain, I'd be raising in this spot, building a pot is fine for me and I have to push on the non-heart turn. If the turn was a heart though, I'm not sure what I'd do.

[rickr]

No, I'm not good enough. That's why I'm getting my money in early, while I think I'm ahead. I've given up on slow play for the most part. I would have slowplayed this if the flop had been 99T, but not this flop.

Later,
Rick

[ReDeYES88]

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Ive found it better not to try to figure out what the other person is thinking because most other players are idiots and dont play things the way I would which ends up screwing me up more in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going to print this out, frame it, and hang it on the wall above my desk. It is the answer to all of my problems /images/graemlins/grin.gif