$109 Bubble: 99 in BB --- what's my line?

[ononimo]

Winning $22 SNG player - decided to play a $109 as a lark just to see how much more difficult the play was. In this particular SNG, the play was relatively passive and straightforward, IMO.

Two reads:
a) UTG has been caught with marginal hands by short stacks in the blinds after making big raises (4-5x BB) from EP with marginal hands (e.g. JTo, KJo) but his hands held up. My read is that UTG's hand is probably marginal but he likely has 2 overcards so I'd be facing a race situation.

b) the SB has played VERY passively - as a short stack, he has passed up several obvious steal opportunities and appears to be waiting for a premium hand. I've been stealing from SB indiscriminately.

here's the hand:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t875)
Hero (t3850)
UTG (t1905)
Button (t3370)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t900</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ... ???

[citanul]

given your reads there's no way i could ever fold this hand. i'd push. a lot of the time you're going to see the raiser fold. even though it shouldn't be possible /images/graemlins/smile.gif you likely have the best hand if called, and if you lose the possible race, you're still at 2x the chips of hte short stack.

no danger + bubble gap + best hand =&gt; do the happy dance.

citanul

[ononimo]

[ QUOTE ]
even though it shouldn't be possible /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

are you saying this because you see him as being pot-committed? or some other reason?

given my read that UTG has 2 overcards, what do you think of calling to see the flop, pushing if the flop comes low, and check-folding to a bet on a flop with overcards? is that too conservative?

[PattyMcFatty]

In my mind there is only one question here- will he call a push? you never wanna see a flop here.. its fold or push. Have you picked up on his betting pattern? an overpair seems unlikely, except maybe 10 10.. you could be dominating here, or flipping. So, it would seem a push is correct, considering the fact that he is now put to the test on the bubble. However, because he is a loose internet player, he will call here with QK, A10, and of course AQ AK. You do not want to coin flip here with apparent control over the table, and a passive shortstack. Id fold. This is simply a trouble hand unless you have a better read on UTG.

I realize this line may seem too passive. I am not suggesting you should not be playing back at UTG with hands like this in general- but the situation jsut doesnt cater to it. Why risk possibly not moneying for 900 more chips?

[PattyMcFatty]

My reasoning is based on your control.. in most cases your a coinflip. Don't let partypoker determine your tournamnet with a coinflip- fold, keep it in your hands, and exploit your edges with a very comfortable stack.

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't let partypoker determine your tournamnet with a coinflip- fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, first off, most of the money I make comes from coinflipping with high blinds. That's just how it goes. Secondly, his tournament isn't at risk. If he pushes, gets called, and loses, he's still in decent shape.

POOSH.

[citanul]

yes, he should probably be pot committed, but due to bubble considerations he will not relaly be a lot of the time (or at least in his brain he won't be).

i don't like call and push low card flops becuse of the rarity of low card flops. why put yourself to a guessing game later when you can put him to a guessing game now? it's best of course if you think him to be a weako, but as i said, you still have a good stack if you push are called and lose the hand.

citanul

[Newt_Buggs]

I think that if UTG had raised to t1000 instead of 900 I would stop-n-go. As it is though I think that pushing is the most +EV given his hand range.

to the OP: are you worried about having the best hand here, preserving the bubble so that you can bully, or losing an all in and being in danger of busting?

[PattyMcFatty]

The blinds arent high. thats the point. He has nice control over the table, and that is absolutely relinquished if he calls and loses.

Like I said, I realize this play is +EV, but there are other variables involved. If your better than the table, I think the fold is the clear play, especially considering his stack size.

[DasLeben]

I personally think that this is an excellent opportunity to exercise some control over the table. UTG will most likely fold a large range of hands to the push (correctly or not) due to the shorty in the SB with 4xBB.

So, as citanul basically put it:

High FE + low risk + better end of a coinflip = holla

Folding here is obnoxiously weak, IMO.

[ononimo]

[ QUOTE ]
to the OP: are you worried about having the best hand here, preserving the bubble so that you can bully, or losing an all in and being in danger of busting?

[/ QUOTE ]

rightly or wrongly, i was pretty confident that I had the best hand - UTG seemed to make smaller raises with pairs and bigger raises with big cards.

my concern was that if i lost a race, I'd be the 3rd stack and, while still ~2x the short stack, I would have ceded the control that my stack had given me and I'd now be subject from bullying from the 2 biggers stacks. this isn't usually something i worry about but since i'm trying to refine my tourney game, i was curious if it was something i SHOULD be worrying about (if that makes any sense).

[PattyMcFatty]

I also adressed this in my post- he doesnt seem to be folding hands to all ins with KJ AJ K 10 A 10 ETC.. Ive been in so many SnG's where this type of player calls off his whole tourny with these marginals. and your misunderstanding my use of the word control. You should know that control doesnt necessarily have anything to do with coming over the top like that, especially considering pot size + his probable call. Control is this case is his skill level &gt; other players. What sort of risk does folding here give him? none at all, his stack is still huge vs. BB.

Pushing is fine - I just hate the position of losing that coinflip. I have kind of responded to the situation in the assumption that the coinflip will be lost, which is obviously worst case and foolish on my part.

[Newt_Buggs]

I don't mean this to be offending, but it doesn't sound like you have played too many $100s Patty (I haven't either btw)

[PattyMcFatty]

Lol, I play them often. Where do you see the flaw in my logic? I admitted to it being a weak fold, but I think given the circumstances its fine BECAUSE I THINK I AM BETTER and can find a better spot.

[treeofwisdom7]

i see the point you guys are putting up that maybe a fold is a good idea because all the chippies you could win. if hes gonna call when i push and i know this then i would call and push the flop.. but if he would fold if i push now with any hand like KJ Axs then im gonna push..or fold 99 in the bb good idea

but i guess the fold idea might be a good one

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
I also adressed this in my post- he doesnt seem to be folding hands to all ins with KJ AJ K 10 A 10 ETC.. Ive been in so many SnG's where this type of player calls off his whole tourny with these marginals. and your misunderstanding my use of the word control. You should know that control doesnt necessarily have anything to do with coming over the top like that, especially considering pot size + his probable call. Control is this case is his skill level &gt; other players. What sort of risk does folding here give him? none at all, his stack is still huge vs. BB.

Pushing is fine - I just hate the position of losing that coinflip. I have kind of responded to the situation in the assumption that the coinflip will be lost, which is obviously worst case and foolish on my part.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your points, but I think pushing is the only real play here. You have pointed out (rightly so) that pushing over the top here is +EV, but that you'd rather pick another spot because you're a better player. Well, the way I see it, I'm going to take this awesome +EV opportunity and have a good chance of picking up an extra t1200 or busting this guy right here. And yes, I do generally consider myself one of the best (if not the best at the levels I play at) at the table.

You see this play as a lack of control, and I see this play as a good way to put myself in a dominating (read "controlling") position ITM.

[PattyMcFatty]

Nice post Das.. I see this as a conflict in perspective, as I do respect your proposed play. I think either play is acceptable with appropriate reasoning. I almost exclusively make this play because of blind size. Anyways gluck

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice post Das.. I see this as a conflict in perspective, as I do respect your proposed play. I think either play is acceptable with appropriate reasoning. I almost exclusively make this play because of blind size. Anyways gluck

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree to disagree? Anyways, good luck to you as well. /images/graemlins/smile.gif