Hated turning 2 pair w/ AK, do I have to call this river?

[SonOfWestwood]

What a lovely turn card for me...

MP2 is 68/13/2.5 with 53 hands (~45 hands when this hand took place)

Is that bet too big to call, or is it small enough to where I have to call? Any other comments on my play certainly appreciated as well.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($12.65)
Hero ($27.1)
BB ($14.25)
UTG ($26.38)
UTG+1 ($32.75)
MP1 ($23.75)
MP2 ($48.57)
CO ($22.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Hero posts a blind of $0.1.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) raises to $1.9</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $1.75, Button folds.

Flop: ($4.75) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, MP2 calls $4.

Turn: ($12.75) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

River: ($12.75) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $5</font>, Hero ??

[Malachii]

Hero reluctantly calls, because of the juicy pot odds.

[ChuckyB]

Gotta call.

How about leading on the turn? With this being a PP$25 table, he could be playing a smaller ace.

[SonOfWestwood]

Do you think leading on the turn really gives me any more information? For example, if he raises me, can I fold it there? Because I think if he just calls behind me, I'm in the same position...

[Atropos]

Easy way: Play it like you did, have to call the river. I think this is quite ok though not the maximum +EV.

Harder way: Bet the turn. Maybe bet the same on turn as on flop, because this looks like either weak/milking bet with a Queen. If he raises you it's totally read dependent I would think, but would lean towards folding.

[RedRum]

Looks like he's figured you don't have the queen, due to the Turn and River checks, and is acting like he does. The $5 bet is so small compared to the pot (17.75 you'd win for calling) makes this an easy call.

If top 2 was no good this time, sorry.

Drink More,
RedRum

[amoeba]

I like the way you played it.

call the river.

[hvillethugg]

The reality of this situation is that you're up against one of 2 hands. You're either up against lower two pair (KT?) or you're up against a queen. Based on his smooth call on the flop, I think he flopped Broadwqy (AQ) or an open ended straight draw (Q8s?) and has you killed. You were probably right to check it down, afraid of the straight because he probably has it. You're not getting that great an odds (slightly better than 3:1) and $5 looks to me like a "This is what I think he'll call bet". It's possible that he could have Ax, but I don't think that's likely considering that he would have missed the flop entirely, except for a gut shot. I don't think he's smooth calling your flop bet with Ax.

Also, what have you seen him do before? Have you seen him generate any action with middle or bottom pair before? What kind of hands has he been calling preflop raises with. All of this comes into play on your decision to call here. If it were me, I'd give him credit for the queen and lay it down unless I had a good read on him from earlier play.

[SonOfWestwood]

Out of curiosity, can you expand on your thought process a little on how you arrived at Q8s as a potential hand, as opposed to another Q, like QJ or QT? As you can probably already guess by my asking, it turns out that's exactly what he had...

[hvillethugg]

Well, I really thought he had AQ because that's a hand people tend to call a raise with (especially weak players). The other hands that weak players call raises with are suited cards. Usually..."just to see a flop". So, in thinking about what kind of hand that he could have had where the flop gave him an open-ended straight draw, without improving his hand (2pair, straight, top pair). The only hand is Q8.

If he had hit broadway, he'd probably slow play it, which means it's possible (and quite probably) that he was holding this. If he had KQ, then he'd have flopped top pair and top draw, and probably would have played back at your $4 bet. KJ would have given him two 2 pair, which means he would have definitely played back at you given the draw on the board (would have tried to take the hand down immediately). QQ...he would have raised preflop...QT would have been bottom pair and top draw. Possibility, but not likely because a weak player tends to raise preflop with this hand in low limit games. Can't rule this hand out completely, but it just doesn't seem like a likely hand here...weak players like to also play back when they connect. Q9 would have given him his straight already, which means it's just as likely as AQ...but not really. Q9 would meant that he didn't flop the nuts straight, and most weak players can't see the river from that point to realize that the worst that could happen in the hand is a split.

Anyway, Q8s seemed logical to me because most weak players don't slow play hitting a miracle flop (or, they don't know how to). They are usually so excited that they hit their cards, that they would reraise you, figuring you for a call. You have to also rule out AQ because he would have raised preflop with AQ. The only way to get his open ended without hitting a card would have been Q8...and I chose suited because he's not calling your raise with Q8off. It could have been any....but, from what I saw, I put him on an open-ended where he hit his straight on the turn.

Also, his last bet...that was NOT a fold bet...he wanted you to call. But he knew there were scary cards out there that you might fold to a large bet. So he bet 5 bucks as something you might call.

I might have over-thought...but don't we all sometimes. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ChuckyB]

I think if you bet the turn, and he comes over the top big (all in or whatever), you've got enough info to fold with a clear conscience. Of that could mean he also made two pair with his ace.

Damn...the more I think about it, the tougher this one gets. The only thing I'm sure of in this hand is the call on the end. Make him show you AQ or KQs or whatever.