Thin value on river 3-bet?

[beta1607]

Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 7/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Hero: J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif___brings-in
Seat 4: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds
Seat 6: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls

4th Street - (1.90 SB)

Hero: J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks___calls
Seat 6: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks___calls

5th Street - (2.45 BB)

Hero: J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif___bets
Seat 6: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks___calls

6th Street - (5.45 BB)

Hero: J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets
Seat 6: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls

River - (8.45 BB)

Hero: J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif___bets___raises
Seat 6: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif xx___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif xx___folds

Total pot: (14.45 BB)


I have been on a down swing partially due to the fact I am a tilt monkey but also because I dont extract enough value with my hands so I have trying to be more agressive. Is this river a good spot for a 3-bet? How about taking the lead when I paired which I think allowed me to get raised on 7th? FWIW I wasnt going to put any more money in the pot after 6th unless I caught a /images/graemlins/heart.gif a 2 or made K's up

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
How about taking the lead when I paired

[/ QUOTE ]


Actually you took the lead before you paired, on 5th. I think I just check-call this through. I can’t imagine you’re a favourite on 6th, so a free card would be great.
There are only two hands he can have you can beat on the river – trips or the spade flush. I dunno… if this guy has brains he’ll be wary of raising with either of those hands. You’re bet on could mean 8s and 2s, after all, so you could be full. I think I don’t 3-bet, unless he’s a monkey.

[bigredlemon]

Maybe i'm a maniac but I'd cap the river every time... well... 3bet and call a cap.

He's probably putting me on either a flush, trips, or big two pair. If I'm villain and I make a flush, i'm going to be raising. If it's a flush Q or higher, i'm capping for sure.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
He's probably putting me on either a flush, trips , or big two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]


The only way Beta can have trips is if he bet on 5th with just deuces

[bigredlemon]

I run some two dimes and found that if Beta had two pair vs. villain's JJ and villain2's 99, beta would have .300 equity 3 way and .388 equity HU, so his move would have been very negative ev. I guess u can replace trips with a boat.

[beta1607]

This was one of my first hands at the table so no reads.

I would have been hesitant to 3-bet if he had a pair showing, but for him to have me beat on the river his hand would have to have been completely hidden which seemed unlikely to me.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
I run some two dimes and found that if Beta had two pair vs. villain's JJ and villain2's 99, beta would have .300 equity 3 way and .388 equity HU, so his move would have been very negative ev. I guess u can replace trips with a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]


Sorry, maybe I’m dumb, but i don’t get it.
JJ? 99? Which move are you talking about? Equity at which point? What does equity have to do with river play?

/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[bigredlemon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I run some two dimes and found that if Beta had two pair vs. villain's JJ and villain2's 99, beta would have .300 equity 3 way and .388 equity HU, so his move would have been very negative ev. I guess u can replace trips with a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]Nah it's all me. Making sense is not my strong point.

I mean on fifth when beta bet, I gave villain1 JT down for a pair of jacks. I gave villain 2 99 down for pair of 9s. According to twodimes.net, beta has .300 pot equity at that street with all players in, and has .388 pot equity if he were HU with villain 1. Hope that makes more sense. You are right that trips make no sense here.

[bigredlemon]

And given villain's betting pattern, I'd strongly suspect he's on a straight draw.

[Roland]

As Andy once said, even the fishiest players notice that a completely dead small or medium pair is catastrophe so I think it’s safe to assume villain 2 has a live pair of some kind and Beta therefore has even less equity.
But the reason I wouldn’t bet out is that is just doesn’t make sense. When you’re behind you should usually check-call, because you don’t want to be raised, right? Also, he wants to raise or check-raise once he hits the fifth heart; if he has taken the lead on 5th, catches a heart on 6th and now checks… his opponents will maybe be confused enough to check behind.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
And given villain's betting pattern, I'd strongly suspect he's on a straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad… I had completely forgotten about straights… uh.
Why am I so dumb? /images/graemlins/confused.gif
You’re right. He could easily have a straight. So a three-bet is better than I thought.

I need to get some sleep.

[mscags]

With no pair showing I absolutely cap this every chance I get. If he has a hidden fullhouse or god forbid quads than you just have to pay him off and kick your cat after you lose. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[Bartholow]

I don't mean to nitpick, but would raising with the spade flush be bad at all? I think I might have in villain's shoes, depending on what cards make my flush.

[Bartholow]

I think semi-bluffing, especially when you are unlikely to get raised, is huge in stud. Saying you should check call if you think you are behind is not something I'm very comfortable with. One advantage to the semi-bluff is that in some situations when you hit your hand is well concealed, so you may get raised and be able to 3-bet. In other situations, catching a scare card allows you to win the pot with another semi-bluff.

In this particular hand, I agree that betting 5th is probably unadvisable, because I think it makes your hand somewhat obvious. But I would certainly bet when you catch the deuce.

[Bartholow]

I like the 3-bet but I do think it is thin. People play more passively on the river than you would think in this game.