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View Full Version : Short-Stacked Late...Complete or Pass?


Degen
05-26-2005, 10:07 PM
If i fold and go on i'm the button with 175 if i complete (basically if i push...) there is a pot of 550 that I can win with my 96o VS a random hand.



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t830)
MP (t3290)
Button (t1395)
Hero (t275)
BB (t2210)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t300

pergesu
05-26-2005, 10:14 PM
I put it in SNG PT, cause I honestly can't decide what to do, and it says it's hugely +EV. I'm assuming it's because you're very unlikely to make the money at all, and doubling up here increases your chances significantly, where as playing a different hand isn't much better than pushing and losing.

Edit: I shouldn't say it's hugely +EV. But it's a big EV difference.

luckyplayer
05-26-2005, 10:17 PM
to me this is straight math. You will absolutely be called by BB's any two cards. Just run ICM on this. Eastbay's tool says easy push here.

Do you think there's more to this problem than what I've said?

lastchance
05-26-2005, 10:19 PM
I don't see how hero doesn't try to get a laydown out of BB. Either complete and push any flop, or just push preflop.

pergesu
05-26-2005, 10:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how hero doesn't try to get a laydown out of BB. Either complete and push any flop, or just push preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is there any chance of him getting a laydown out of BB? I don't think so.

luckyplayer
05-26-2005, 10:20 PM
Do you really think a laydown is possible here? Even on flop with a t75 bet into a t200 pot?

luckyplayer
05-26-2005, 10:21 PM
You appear to be 10s ahead of me tonight

barycentric
05-26-2005, 10:22 PM
Stranger things have happened. The FE is very small, but definitely positive. I see BB fold in this situation every day.

lastchance
05-26-2005, 10:24 PM
You have to try. It's better than getting called.

pergesu
05-26-2005, 10:34 PM
[ QUOTE ]
You have to try. It's better than getting called.

[/ QUOTE ]
He's not going to fold. And I just plugged it in to SNG PT, getting called with any two is profitable. So you push because you've got very little shot to win the thing anyway. Regardless of whether you push or fold, you have a crappy chance of making any money.

Newt_Buggs
05-26-2005, 10:37 PM
you're getting better than 2:1 on your money and you will win a showdown if you push 44.5% of the time, making this a very easy push IMO. Of course, as others have said you might as well complete and push any flop.

microbet
05-26-2005, 11:06 PM
I don't know whether stop-n-go or push is better, they are almost the same. Folding is worse.

Scuba Chuck
05-27-2005, 12:03 AM
You're playing this hand with all your chips. Whichever way you want to, pushing or complete and push. I'm sure there's some possibility villain might check, or even (misclick) fold on a flop. But you're playing this hand, IMO.

Degen
05-27-2005, 12:47 AM
thinking that anybody would fold to 75 more is about the dumbest thing i've ever heard...i think BB would fold here about 1% of the time...the only time i think the BB would ever fold this is when he had a monster stack and wanted to preserve the bubble (or near bubble).


Andre

Degen
05-27-2005, 12:50 AM
okie dokie thx guys...i folded, bad move i guess

so what would you say is the cutoff? Say i had 200 left if i folded, 250 or 300? Where is the breaking point? I'd just like some sort of rule or guideline to go by. i hate thinking, i like to try and play SNG's like a blackjack card counter /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Andre

Newt_Buggs
05-27-2005, 02:00 AM
[ QUOTE ]
thinking that anybody would fold to 75 more is about the dumbest thing i've ever heard

[/ QUOTE ]
i think that this issue was brought up on another thread. lets say villain is a complete donk and is holding 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif. Even a complete idiot is going to call a push here for 75 more chips. However, because he's an idiot when you complete he just checks instead of putting your remaining 75 in. Now, the flop comes down A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif and you push. His 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif doesn't feel like its worth even 75 now and hes folding.

fluorescenthippo
05-27-2005, 02:09 AM
this must be a joke. folding this is insane

fluorescenthippo
05-27-2005, 02:11 AM
[ QUOTE ]


so what would you say is the cutoff? Say i had 200 left if i folded, 250 or 300? Where is the breaking point? I'd just like some sort of rule or guideline to go by. i hate thinking, i like to try and play SNG's like a blackjack card counter /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Andre

[/ QUOTE ]


the cutoff for me would be around 8XBB. anything less balances out to great pot odds or great folding equity

lastchance
05-27-2005, 02:13 AM
Folding is awful. Never, ever fold here. Don't fold. Evar. Folding = bad.

I almost NEVER fold when it's folded to me in the SB. Sometimes I make advertising folds, but if I have less than 6x BB, all of my chips are going into the middle, 100% of the time.

With a hand as good as 96o, I doubt there is any stack where you should fold. You should be raising here almost 100% of the time, with any stack, even big ones. This is prime stealing situation. Go take down some blinds.