In the blink of an eye

[fsuplayer]

party NL 1000

the villian is a huge LAG pf, but plays ok postflop most of the time. his #'s dont really tell the story, as they are like 52/23. he basically raises all of his hands pf that he plays.

earlier this week, I bluffed him out of two huge pots, including raising his blocking bet on the river with a missed fl. draw, causing him to fold a set on a 4 card st. board.

since then, he seems to have it out for me. he reads hands decent, so I have been mixing up my play, both when I am the aggressor, and when he is.


the table is playing relatively LAGish ATM.

so i $1200, raise UTG to $45 with AA.

he calls on the button, HU to the flop. he has been running well and has >$3k.

flop: T77r, i bet 90, he calls.

turn: 4x, i check, he bets $150, I call.

river: 7 I auto-move-in for $900.


thoughts?

fsuplayer

edit: villian is punketty, that may ring a bell for some 1000 players.

[captZEEbo1]

does 4x mean 4 offsuit? (as in you aren't calling turn with a flush draw).

It's a nice bet, but I think the only hands that can call is KK-JJ. If he's a smart, thinking player, he should be able to get away from the T, because you couldn't call the turn with anything.

I assume you aren't too much of a lag preflop?

edit: also, does he raise his draws, and how loose is his cold-calling standards (would he cc with 98 or J9 in which you'd rather c/r on river)...

[augie00]

Hmm, I don't know. You would have to be pretty bad to call here with just a ten. I would have made a smaller river bet I think. Certainly bet, though.

[VanVeen]

Hm, I think he'll call a very high % of the time w/JJ-QQ and always with KK, but he'll always bet these hands if checked to and will always call a check-raise. You'll also get a tremendous amount of additional value out of all the hands he'll bluff with by checking to him and letting him fire another barrel, something he seems to be fond of doing. So unless you think he'll rarely bluff vs. you or will sniff out a trap, I'd go for a c/r.

So, to put this succintly: all the hands that will call this shove would have bet and called a check-raise anyway, plus you lose value by taking away his opportunity to bluff. How'd it work out?

[xorbie]

Has he seen you raise PF with JT/9T/AT from UTG? Also, he would probably re-raise JJ/QQ/KK pf with those numbers right? So really you want a T or 88/99 type hand to call here, but I'm not sure what you're trying to represent. An AK type hand would have had to basically call the turn planning on bluffing the river, which is certainly possible but it's a bit of a reach.

[fsuplayer]

so if you do check, are you always CRing all in?

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
but plays ok postflop most of the time.


river: 7 I auto-move-in for $900.

[/ QUOTE ]


Is he calling you with hands you can beat? Are you sacrificing money to be made by check/calling the river and allowing him to bet/bluff a worse hand which makes up for the times you are beat? I think the answer since he plays ok post flop is no to the 1st question and yes to the second.

[neon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but plays ok postflop most of the time.


river: 7 I auto-move-in for $900.

[/ QUOTE ]


Is he calling you with hands you can beat? Are you sacrificing money to be made by check/calling the river and allowing him to bet/bluff a worse hand which makes up for the times you are beat? I think the answer since he plays ok post flop is no to the 1st question and yes to the second.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does KK, and likely QQ and JJ as well, really not call here at least some of the time? Does villain not expect fsu to be on AK or some other air here at least some of the time given their recent history against each other?

I will say that I think against most opponents, this line looks like a big hand, and that a lot of good postflop players will get away from JJ a lot of the time and QQ some of the time, and KK almost never. Given fsu's recent history w/ villain, however (the "he's out to get me" mentality), I think he's more likely to call here than most players who play well postflop.

I guess it really comes down to a math problem, doesn't it? Will villain call the bigger bet often enough to make it more profitable than a smaller bet that he'll call more often?

(Don't ask me /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

[spahk]

i like it. very fast actions look suspicious. he'll call often enough here to make it +EV in the long run. a check-raise allows him to get away from a hand like QQ or even AT so much cheaper that it can't make up for just a few all-in calls, even if the check-raise works every single time.

[Imperial]

I like to limp reraise AA UTG on a LAG table.

[freemoney]

villian plays well postflop you give up too much info pre by doing that.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I like to limp reraise AA UTG on a LAG table.

[/ QUOTE ]

its 6 max. and while villian will open with nearly anything, his raising standards after a limper, esp. a solid one are a completely different story, so I couldnt count on a raise.

plus yeah, it screams out my holding.

[Seadood228]

Sometimes this:

[ QUOTE ]
since then, he seems to have it out for me

[/ QUOTE ]

can really get in the way of this:

[ QUOTE ]
he reads hands decent

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of this information, I think you are more likely to get a called by JJ-QQ and Tx, and possibly even others in that spot if you autopush the river. Personally I don't think you'll get a call too often if you checkraise, as he'd have to put you on a monster bluff there, which is unlikely given your actions.