All-in with Jacks?

[Swash]

$1/$2 NLHE, $100 max. rebuy, Atlantic City.

The game is good. All of the players except BB(solid) and CO are weak passive. CO has been aggressive, but sane. He has played about 30-40% of his hands pre-flop, pushed good hands hard, and has made several large flop and turn bets in the last 3 hours. When called, he has shown a mixture of quality hands and semi-bluffs, nary a stone cold bluff (or thrown his hand in the muck). Your image to him is tight, but moderately aggressive.

UTG ($240)
UTG+1 ($90)
UTG+2 ($69)
MP1 ($43)
Hero ($148)- (J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J /images/graemlins/heart.gif)
MP3 ($123)
CO ($246)
Button ($48)
SB ($127)
BB ($600)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J, J. UTG+2 and MP1 limp. You raise to $7 (std for this table). CO calls, everyone else folds. You're heads up.

Flop: ($21) 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $15, CO raises all-in. $126 for you to call.

This is a crapshoot. My thinking is that he could hold A9 (he's played AX consistently), a flush draw, an overpair (10's or Q's), or a set, with the flush draw most likely (perhaps 40%), and the rest about equally likely.

I'm inclined to call. Am I nuts? I understand very few ("normal") players would play a flush draw, or A9, this way. I would fold against anyone else at this table here, but I feel like I'm a favorite here. Any thoughts?

[wdeadwyler]

Most of the hands that do this in this situation are destroying your JJ. Every now and then u catch a busted flush of a 1010, but nowhere near enough to make this call profitable. FOLD.

[xorbie]

One thing to keep in mind is that almost any flush draw will have at least one overcard, so they are actually coinflipping against you, meaning you are a dog to his range. It's not an easy fold, but probably one to make.

[Malachii]

Often times people make these large overbets with the stone cold nuts. As others have said, you're coinflipping or in bad bad shape. I fold, but I sweat him out and give him the staredown for at least two minutes before I do.

[spahk]

how long have you been at this game? has he seen you make big laydowns before? what hand (if any) do you think he has you on?

i think you should call, and expect to see a flush draw most of the time (much more than 40%).

[spahk]

just to clarify. he would have to be pretty sophisticated to make this play with a set. not that many players are willing to make overpairs that uncomfortable with a hand like that. i would consider calling in this spot with any pair.

[SonOfWestwood]

Of the hands you put him on, only A9 and TT are solid favorites for you. Any flush draw is likely to have at least one overcard to your J, which makes things about a coin flip. If the flush draw is an overcard plus the 9d, I think that puts you as a dog. And, of course, if he's got a set, you're a dog. I'm pretty sure I fold in this situation.

BTW, how in the world did you remember the stacks of all players to be able to list them here?

[Swash]

I called and got lucky. The villian showed me 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, and didn't improve. I feel though, that the (consensus) replies to this post are right, and that a fold was in order. Even though I'm convinced that this opponent would make this play with A9, in most other cases, I'm only a small favorite or almost stone cold dead with only two outs.

[theben]

the correctness of a fold or call definetly depends on how strongly you felt he was on a flush draw. if he really likes semibluff, a flush draw is highly likely

it is possible (but not as likely as other hands) you are against a larger pair. would he usually reraise preflop with QQ-AA? many players do. if he is one of those players, then [censored] your worries to a set. if he likes calling with face pairs, then be very concerned about an overpair

also, what level of info do you have on him and his play of strong, overpair breaking concealed hands (sets, 2 pair)? when he bet it all, it does look like hes looking for you to fold, making a flush draw more possible, as well as TT. a flat reraise if more likely from a set that wants action from an overpair.

basically, you just need to try to recall how he has played specific hands and make judgement off that. if you have a few key peices of info from past hands, like how he plays big pairs preflop, his like/dislike for semibluffing, and how fast he plays sets/2pair, you can peg him on a hand real well.