Jacks look good at the flop, but the betting is scary...

[KSOT]

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif. UTG posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, BB folds.

River: (11.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

What do you think about THAT one?

[Nick Royale]

3-bet the flop.

[shadow29]

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're a champion today, Nick.

[Jakesta]

3bet flop and go from there.

[KSOT]

I was a milisecond away from clicking raise there, but... the UTG was a pretty good player I thought and I was worried.

[KSOT]

I really don't get it. Why should I 3-bet a flop if I really feel I'm beat? How is that not spewing? I'm thinking maybe I should've just folded there.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I was a milisecond away from clicking raise there, but... the UTG was a pretty good player I thought and I was worried.

[/ QUOTE ]
A good player will not only raise better hands than JJ here. Far from.

[Kumubou]

Uh, what happened to the read you posted? I doubt he is a good player; he posted UTG. That just is not smart. Or maybe he misclicked.

(Note: the following advice was given with the read that UTG was a calling station to the extreme, with a one-button client).

This screams 'random lucksack two pair,' maybe a flopped set. Against two pair, you have a perceived 11 outs, but 6 of them fill him up, so 5 are clean -- but you do not know which card it is (not cool!). On the turn, that increases to 8 clean odds and even odds to fill up if the board pairs. If he doesn't fill up, you win. If he has a set, you have two clean outs.

You are getting 11.5:2 on this flop call, plus at least two more big bets to go to showdown -- and this guy has no fold button, so you are not winning this hand otherwise. You have somewhere between 2 and 4-ish outs; I fold this cheese on the flop given that this is the one time this blue moon that the raiser found something other than the 'call any' button.

An aside: if this is some random unknown donk, I three-bet this flop, especially since he seems uber-clueless and posted UTG (wow).

-K

[Jakesta]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't get it. Why should I 3-bet a flop if I really feel I'm beat? How is that not spewing? I'm thinking maybe I should've just folded there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most people will raise the flop with top pair. You have an overpair. UTG could be raising A9s or K9s here, thinking that his nines are best. 3bet it and if it is capped then call it down.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking maybe I should've just folded there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding there would be awful. 3-bet, lead the turn.

[Jakesta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking maybe I should've just folded there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding there would be awful. 3-bet, lead the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can Hero lead the turn if he is 3rd to act, after the two aggressive players? If he is bet into on the turn then he should just call down, imo. Raising the turn with just the overpair after a capped flop is spewage. Even if it's not capped, I would still just call a turn bet if there is one. Lots of players will stop and go with two pair.

[KSOT]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, what happened to the read you posted?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sorry about that. It was actually a new player who replaced the calling station who was there previously. GT+ hadn't updated yet, so I didn't notice. I had no read on the new guy.

[Nak]

This is a very intersting hand. I imagine that some replies will try to compare it to the TT example in "Two Overpair Hands" in SSHE. Indeed, it may apply, but it is not clear-cut. The first thing is that there is a poster in, so he could have anything.

Now, in the TT example in SSHE, the question was about pot equity becuase there was no way to protect the TT hand. Here, you might be able to protect your jacks against overcards by 3-betting. If you think you can, then do so. Otherwise I like the way you played. Wait for the turn.

Nak

[nomadtla]

I hate to sound like a repeater but 3 betting is the way to go. There gonna have to give me a lot more for me to put them on two pair. Go to check call after that Queen. But you've played me before on UB so you know I'm an ATM sometimes take my advice lightly.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, in the TT example in SSHE, the question was about pot equity becuase there was no way to protect the TT hand. Here, you might be able to protect your jacks against overcards by 3-betting. If you think you can, then do so. Otherwise I like the way you played. Wait for the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
If OP's plan was to wait to the turn to raise a non scarecard he can't call when the Q hits. It just ain't scary enough. Even if it's not the perfect card it's not setting up for any additional straights and we can't pu anyone on a Q. Calling sucks!

[milesdyson]

KSOT said:
[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif. UTG posts a blind of $0.50. . . . I was a milisecond away from clicking raise there, but... the UTG was a pretty good player I thought and I was worried.

[/ QUOTE ]
Kumubou said:
[ QUOTE ]
You have somewhere between 2 and 4-ish outs; I fold this cheese on the flop given that this is the one time this blue moon that the raiser found something other than the 'call any' button.

[/ QUOTE ]
Milesdyson frowns. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[PuckNPoker]

I 3 bet this flop. UTG (in order of likelihood) could be pumping a bare 8, overcards, Any pair (shutting out the field to increase his equity), any overpair, or yes 2 pair, a set, or flopped straight.

Now this time he may have any of the last 3 hands, but the vast majority of the time he does not. Folding is obviously horrible, calling and raising a "safe" turn card isnt bad but I dont think situation warrants it. And I dont think the Q hurt you on the turn (imho), you either are beat on the flop or way ahead on the turn.

[lies]

when you are holding jacks you always "feel" as if you are beat
you just gotta 3bet the flop and go from there

[smartalecc5]

Give me a 3
Give me a BET
What the spell? 3-BET!

[Nak]

Here are some pokerstove results for this hand. Against random hands, your pot equity does not go down by that much when the Q hits (less than I thought). This definitely supports 3-betting the flop if you believe the evidence. I mean, I know that the hands aren't random in this example, but they may as well be the way these people play.

Nak


11,647,424 games 86.274 secs 135,005 games/sec

Board: 6s 9d 7c Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 35.7025 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { JhJd }
Hand 2: 21.4271 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 21.4380 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 21.4324 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { random }


---

6,548,562 games 59.917 secs 109,293 games/sec

Board: 6s 9d 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 38.8222 % [ 00.38 00.00 ] { JhJd }
Hand 2: 20.4025 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 20.3791 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 20.3962 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { random }


---

[Fantam]

I am not sure about this hand, but these are my thoughts:

UTG's flop raise suggests a made hand to me. Either a set or straight. I think 2 pair is unlikely with that flop.

I would 3-bet the flop. If I did have the best hand on the flop, I would want to drive out anyone drawing to a gut-shot (inside straight).

If UTG then capped the flop, I would consider it even more likely that he did in fact have a set or straight.

I would call a flop cap, but then fold to a turn bet from UTG unimproved.

This hand appears to be one of those way ahead or way behind situations, and the flop 3-bet seems to be the best way to find out.

[Nak]

On the other hand, if you can put one of your opponents on an 8, your pot equity is drastically reduced.

Here is the flop equity with one of your opponents having any 8 (except 86o-82o).

5,426,009 games 46.987 secs 115,478 games/sec

Board: 6s 9d 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 29.8037 % [ 00.29 00.00 ] { JhJd }
Hand 2: 40.9717 % [ 00.37 00.04 ] { 88, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 87s-82s, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 3: 14.6084 % [ 00.12 00.02 ] { random }
Hand 4: 14.6162 % [ 00.12 00.02 ] { random }


And here is the turn equity.

Board: 6s 9d 7c Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 30.1049 % [ 00.30 00.00 ] { JhJd }
Hand 2: 36.7847 % [ 00.35 00.02 ] { 88, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 87s-82s, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 3: 16.5557 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 16.5547 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { random }

Things don't look so good now. Your 3-bet certainly isn't for value, and you can't raise the turn for value either. But, if you think that your 3-bet will protect your hand (as I suggested earlier), then look what happens on the turn with only three players in.

17,318,943 games 67.807 secs 255,415 games/sec

Board: 6s 9d 7c Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 40.6246 % [ 00.41 00.00 ] { JhJd }
Hand 2: 40.4323 % [ 00.39 00.01 ] { 88, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 87s-82s, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 3: 18.9431 % [ 00.18 00.01 ] { random }


Now, you have a slight equity edge on the player with an 8.

Just some things to think about. Those players who advocate 3-betting as if it's totally clear-cut are being slightly obtuse.

Nak

[Nak]

[ QUOTE ]
I would want to drive out anyone drawing to a gut-shot

[/ QUOTE ]

Gutshots are probably already making a mistake if you just call, but 3-betting does help your turn equity drastically if you can get one person out.

Nak

[DMBFan23]

I would raise the turn. you were waiting for a "safe" turn card to raise, and to me that's anything but a 5, 8, T, or A. it's pretty likely on the turn that UTG has something like A9 or even 87, and I really want to protect this hand. with a big pot and 2 players left to act, my line is gonna go raise, call 3 bet because I'm drawing very live against 2 pair and the pot is huge, fold river unimproved, bet most rivers if I'm not 3 bet on turn

EDIT: assuming you didnt 3 bet the flop which is also a good plan. in fact looking at the pot size I like it more than waiting.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
How can Hero lead the turn if he is 3rd to act? Raising the turn with just the overpair after a capped flop is spewage.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) If you 3-bet the flop, I am guessing you will have a chance to lead the turn

2) I didn't say raise the turn. If you're capped on the flop, or bet into on the turn, it's probably a calldown, unless you have to face two cold at any point.