Passive with a full house

[rigoletto]

Online 20/40

LAG calls UTG, I raise 77 in the hijack, semiloose passive (SLP calls in the BB, LAG calls.

Flop: Td Ts 5c

LAG predictably bets, I call expecting it to be HU, SLP calls - has has a hand, probably a 5.

Turn: Tc

LAG bets, I ???


...to be continued.

[DpR]

tough to not want to raise this. BB may call 2 with the 5 and you would hate to see an A on the river having not raised. Now may be your only chance. No brainer rasie to me.

[johnnycakes]

[ QUOTE ]
tough to not want to raise this. BB may call 2 with the 5 and you would hate to see an A on the river having not raised. Now may be your only chance. No brainer rasie to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
tough to not want to raise this. BB may call 2 with the 5 and you would hate to see an A on the river having not raised. Now may be your only chance. No brainer rasie to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for info: BB will lay down here most of the time and LAG is capable of 3-betting lesser hands.

[Klepton]

you're going to showdown no matter what, so i raise the turn and call a 3bet, and call the river unless it's an A

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
tough to not want to raise this. BB may call 2 with the 5 and you would hate to see an A on the river having not raised. Now may be your only chance. No brainer rasie to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for info: BB will lay down here most of the time and LAG is capable of 3-betting lesser hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would expect a call from a 5 in the BB, but in this particular case we can only trust your judgement. As for getting three bet from LAG that is great. We are definitely not folding (even to a river A), he can't really have a PP bigger than ours unless our 'LAG' limped with 88. We might lose to quads, but I'm not gonna let that freeze me up here.

[bobbyi]

When BB calls the flop, why do you think it is more likely that he has a five than a pocket pair?

[Jeff W]

Why not raise the flop to isolate LAG?

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
you're going to showdown no matter what, so i raise the turn and call a 3bet, and call the river unless it's an A

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the problem: if I raise they will both lay down right there a lot of the time and when I get 3-bet I think I'm behind at least 30% of the time. If I just call BB will call 95% of the time on the turn AND river + LAG will often bet a worse hand then mine on the river when I just call. In addition they BB will often call a riverraise and UTG will call it some of the time. The risk is of course that I'm looking at 8-12 cards that can beat me on the river.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise the flop to isolate LAG?

[/ QUOTE ]

BB will fold to one bet when he doesn't have a pp or a piece of the board, so it's not worth the ekstra bet.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
When BB calls the flop, why do you think it is more likely that he has a five than a pocket pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. I was very sure on my read when I played the hand. I think he would bet the flop with any pp better than 77 and thus the read.

[pokerhooker]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is the problem: if I raise they will both lay down right there a lot of the time and when I get 3-bet I think I'm behind at least 30% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise, and they both fold "a lot of the time", I don't see winning the pot right then and there as a problem. It's significantly better than them each sticking around with 6 overcards outs (and since UTG is betting on the turn, you're letting him draw to those for free).

You mention a 3-bet means you're behind "at least" 30% of the time. Is there an upper range on this? The % needs to be very very high for the raise not to be worth it if he was going to fold a non-paired hand, and call with an underpair.

[pokerhooker]

[ QUOTE ]
BB will fold to one bet when he doesn't have a pp or a piece of the board, so it's not worth the ekstra bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused... your previous comment says "If I just call BB will call 95% of the time on the turn AND river ". If it's true he'll call 95% of the time, by all means raise.

[rigoletto]

He is drawing near dead when he calls the turn and he is likely to fold to turn raise.

[pokerhooker]

I think I understand now. I believe you're saying that he'll call 95% of the time holding a 5, yet fold to a raise with the same hand. If he has a 5 and an overcard, he has 5 outs, which is enough to make me want to push him out of the hand and get the extra bet from the LAG.

If you get 3-bet from the LAG, are you calling down, or folding? Without any insight into his play, I would hate my hand if I get 3-bet in this spot. As you mention earlier, if he is capable of 3-betting worse hands, and your likelihood of being behind is as low as 30%, your raise has +ev