A_PLUS
05-26-2005, 03:48 PM
Id appreciate any comments on my methods. Thanks
Ok, I posted earlier about doing a more complete mathematical analysis of a questionable play. I did a quick and dirty version of the analysis. First, I ignored the fact that there would be more than one caller. This will lead to an inflated EV number in my analysis (although not to dramatic, b/c the addition of another hand, even if it is AA-KK, does not eliminate the equity of 99, instead almost halfing the EV of a showdown). Also, I ignored other options (opportunity cost, sorry I'm an Econ grad student).
ANALYSIS
Situation: 110 players remain, 40 places pay. I have 3200 TCs, average is 4400. Blinds 100/200. I am sitting in MP with 5 players yet to act behind me (including the blinds).
Everyone is comfortably stacked, ranging from 2600-5500. Play has been fairly tight, but not overly so.
Calculations
Two possible outcomes, I get called, or I win the blinds
I give my opponents the calling range of AA-77, AK-AJ
% of time called =
Total number of hand combinations remaining after removing 99 = c(50,2)=1225
The number of hand combinations that my opponents will call with = (7*6)[PP other than 99] + (16*3)[AK-AJ] + 1[99] = 91
This next part is not exact, and may very well be dead wrong
1225 total hand possibilities, 5 random hands = c(1225,5)=
22 trillion and change
1134 total hand possibilities that will not call (1225-91), 5 random hands = c(1134,5) = 15 trillion and change
So c(1134,5) / c(1225,5) = .6794
67.94% chance of stealing the blinds
So....
Steal the Blinds 300
% of time 0.679359427
subtotal 203.8078281
Showdown pot 6550
equity vs range 0.463
EV of showdown -167.35
% of time 0.320640573
subtotal -53.65919987
TOTAL EV 150.1486283
Now assuming that CEV = $EV, does anyone see a problem with my calculations? I am a little worried about how I handled the % of times that I will steal the blinds. For instance, someone will fold A7, but that will affect the number of Aces available for hands like AK that will call.
Ok, I posted earlier about doing a more complete mathematical analysis of a questionable play. I did a quick and dirty version of the analysis. First, I ignored the fact that there would be more than one caller. This will lead to an inflated EV number in my analysis (although not to dramatic, b/c the addition of another hand, even if it is AA-KK, does not eliminate the equity of 99, instead almost halfing the EV of a showdown). Also, I ignored other options (opportunity cost, sorry I'm an Econ grad student).
ANALYSIS
Situation: 110 players remain, 40 places pay. I have 3200 TCs, average is 4400. Blinds 100/200. I am sitting in MP with 5 players yet to act behind me (including the blinds).
Everyone is comfortably stacked, ranging from 2600-5500. Play has been fairly tight, but not overly so.
Calculations
Two possible outcomes, I get called, or I win the blinds
I give my opponents the calling range of AA-77, AK-AJ
% of time called =
Total number of hand combinations remaining after removing 99 = c(50,2)=1225
The number of hand combinations that my opponents will call with = (7*6)[PP other than 99] + (16*3)[AK-AJ] + 1[99] = 91
This next part is not exact, and may very well be dead wrong
1225 total hand possibilities, 5 random hands = c(1225,5)=
22 trillion and change
1134 total hand possibilities that will not call (1225-91), 5 random hands = c(1134,5) = 15 trillion and change
So c(1134,5) / c(1225,5) = .6794
67.94% chance of stealing the blinds
So....
Steal the Blinds 300
% of time 0.679359427
subtotal 203.8078281
Showdown pot 6550
equity vs range 0.463
EV of showdown -167.35
% of time 0.320640573
subtotal -53.65919987
TOTAL EV 150.1486283
Now assuming that CEV = $EV, does anyone see a problem with my calculations? I am a little worried about how I handled the % of times that I will steal the blinds. For instance, someone will fold A7, but that will affect the number of Aces available for hands like AK that will call.