wondering how good i can play?

[krisco]

We have been playing a weekly NLHE tour. for 2 years now. it is usually 15 to 20 players every week.i think that there are at least 5 to 6 good players playing.We have a 100 dollar buy in and pay 3 places. I have finished in the top 3 everytime except about 5% of the time.I have been to horse and won a couple of super satellites. but i am jiust nervous about moving up to 1000 to 2000 buyin tour.i think i am a decent player.any thoughts please on making th jump to higher buyins thanks.

[smoore]

That's a big jump. We truly don't have enough information, I'd say take some of your profit, go ahead and take the shot. I'd treat it just so though, as a SHOT... be prepared to go back to your $100 buyins if you fail.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
We have been playing a weekly NLHE tour. for 2 years now. it is usually 15 to 20 players every week.i think that there are at least 5 to 6 good players playing.We have a 100 dollar buy in and pay 3 places. I have finished in the top 3 everytime except about 5% of the time.I have been to horse and won a couple of super satellites. but i am jiust nervous about moving up to 1000 to 2000 buyin tour.i think i am a decent player.any thoughts please on making th jump to higher buyins thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've finished in the top 10-20% of all players 95% of the time? You'll forgive me if I don't believe you?

[krisco]

i am telling the truth. another player who finishes well every week jokes about who is going to take the crown away from me every week, lol. i almost won my way into the WPT at horseshoe in january.won a sattelite and finished 18th out of 262 in super sat. i go play in 10/ 20 limit tables some and start with about 300dollars. i have won 1500 to 2000 on some trips.i have been maybe 8 times.i have won 5 out of 8 times. lost 100 to 200 other times. i just wanted to know how i stood against people that play for bigger limits.thanks again

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
i am telling the truth. another player who finishes well every week jokes about who is going to take the crown away from me every week, lol. i almost won my way into the WPT at horseshoe in january.won a sattelite and finished 18th out of 262 in super sat. i go play in 10/ 20 limit tables some and start with about 300dollars. i have won 1500 to 2000 on some trips.i have been maybe 8 times.i have won 5 out of 8 times. lost 100 to 200 other times. i just wanted to know how i stood against people that play for bigger limits.thanks again

[/ QUOTE ]

I myself have no idea how you would do against other players. If you've monied 95% of the time over 2 years, one of two things is happening. Either you're lucky as all hell. Or you are playing against the most braindead, retarded people in the world, and you're just sitting back and letting them bust each other. You can play absolutely perfect poker over the course of a tourney and still not money. 95% is unattainable provided you're not playing with people are all in on the first hand with 84o.

[SamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
95% is unattainable provided you're not playing with people are all in on the first hand with 84o.

[/ QUOTE ]Don't worry; if they went all in with 84o you STILL wouldn't be 95% to place. Hell, you wouldn't be 95% to win THAT hand, and if you did double up, that doesn't guarantee you'll make the money.

I, too, take issue with your 95% claim.
-Sam

[krisco]

o.k. as actual % goes i dont know.but we have a big tour. at the end of the year, the pot was 4600 dollars winner take all.i won it we had 24 players that night.since jan.i have been inthe money every week sometimes its third sometimes i win etc.we play every thursday night. i usually play conservative at first till we get down to about 6 to 7 players.i played like crap when we first started 2 years ago but i can just about tell you what anybody has got now.remember the same people play every week.sometimes we have a new person show up.after abou 2 months i started playing good and seems like i get better every week. thanks

[ddollevoet]

There is another way to see how good of a player you are without moving up to $1,000 or $2,000 buy-ins yet. Get online and play a couple big $100 tourneys. See how you fair against a couple hundred players rather than a couple dozen. If you fair well, move up. IF you don't, keep milking your friends for their money. Good luck.

[RiverDood]

Here's a quick quiz to help you decide whether you want to be playing $1000 buyins. (I'm assuming these are one-table or two-table affairs.)

Suppose you're in a $1000-buyin tournament where the top three places get paid. It's down to 6 players and the blinds are getting steep. You've got maybe 7x the BB and are in fifth place. Three folds and it's to you on the button. You pick up 99.

Do you push? Raise? Fold? Call?

Assume you push and bust out to a deep-stacked caller with AQ who pairs on the flop.

You play again the next week. Same situation. You're on the button again with 99. This time you min raise. The SB folds and the BB calls. The flop comes 873rainbow and it's checked to you. You push and are called. Villain turns over 77. You lose.

Same situation a third week. Now you've lost $2000 playing aggressively. Your financial obligations are whatever they are. You've got 99 on the button again. Do you push? Raise? Call? Fold?

If you genuinely think you can play the hand unflinchingly each time, you're probably psychologically ready to play for bigger stakes. If you don't want to fail more than once on the same play -- even if it's the right logical path -- the extra stakes are going to make you nervous. Take a hard look at your bankroll and ask yourself if you can stomach some variance before you get back to your winning ways.

Fiddle with the example if you don't like 99 for some reason. But you get the basic point. Are you willing to play poker at high levels, even if you lose the first couple times?

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
o.k. as actual % goes i dont know.but we have a big tour. at the end of the year, the pot was 4600 dollars winner take all.i won it we had 24 players that night.since jan.i have been inthe money every week sometimes its third sometimes i win etc.we play every thursday night. i usually play conservative at first till we get down to about 6 to 7 players.i played like crap when we first started 2 years ago but i can just about tell you what anybody has got now.remember the same people play every week.sometimes we have a new person show up.after abou 2 months i started playing good and seems like i get better every week. thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Three posts, three good examples of BS.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
95% is unattainable provided you're not playing with people are all in on the first hand with 84o.

[/ QUOTE ]Don't worry; if they went all in with 84o you STILL wouldn't be 95% to place. Hell, you wouldn't be 95% to win THAT hand, and if you did double up, that doesn't guarantee you'll make the money.

I, too, take issue with your 95% claim.
-Sam

[/ QUOTE ]

Well obviously he's folding there /images/graemlins/tongue.gif I just meant he's letting the others take themselves out.

[Gator_Nutz]

Very good RiverDood. I know I'm playing where I should be. Just reading your quiz scared the hell out of me.

[krisco]

thanks riverdodd that helps me out alot.thanks

[noggindoc]

[ QUOTE ]
i am telling the truth. another player who finishes well every week jokes about who is going to take the crown away from me every week, lol. i almost won my way into the WPT at horseshoe in january.won a sattelite and finished 18th out of 262 in super sat. i go play in 10/ 20 limit tables some and start with about 300dollars. i have won 1500 to 2000 on some trips.i have been maybe 8 times.i have won 5 out of 8 times. lost 100 to 200 other times. i just wanted to know how i stood against people that play for bigger limits.thanks again

[/ QUOTE ]
no doubt you're ready for the big time! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ricochet420]

This is OBVIOUSLY VERY POSSIBLE. I play with the same group of guys on a regular basis for a little better than a year now. I have placed ITM in this game 100% of the time, yes you read that correct. I am NOT bragging, okay just a little, but it is very possible. I can even say I have NOT come in first place at the most 5-6 times. [ QUOTE ]

You've finished in the top 10-20% of all players 95% of the time? You'll forgive me if I don't believe you?

[/ QUOTE ]

[krisco]

thank you ricochet, i dont have a reason to lie about it. i was just asking for some advice. i have learned these same players like the back of my hand.its the same players every week.

[TM1212]

[ QUOTE ]
We have been playing a weekly NLHE tour. for 2 years now. it is usually 15 to 20 players every week.i think that there are at least 5 to 6 good players playing.We have a 100 dollar buy in and pay 3 places. I have finished in the top 3 everytime except about 5% of the time.I have been to horse and won a couple of super satellites. but i am jiust nervous about moving up to 1000 to 2000 buyin tour.i think i am a decent player.any thoughts please on making th jump to higher buyins thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I normally hate negative posting, but GOD DAMN! IF YOUR GONNA LIE, MAKE IT A GOOD LIE! A 100 nlhe tour (where)? 95% of the time u cash LOL!!!! NOT POSIBLE!!! [censored] 50% is almost unthinkable! Are you playing against monkey's? F*ck even a Monkey is gonna out draw you once and a while.

Yea enter the fictional 1,000 tourts. Tells us about how you have 20 straight cashes in those next!

On a serious note, If this isn't just some incredible waste of all our time and a serious post, learn to take accurate statistics (or any statistics for that matter). Cause you'll learn that 95% cash rate is just not possible. And you’ll learn a lot move about the game.

[TM1212]

[ QUOTE ]
This is OBVIOUSLY VERY POSSIBLE. I play with the same group of guys on a regular basis for a little better than a year now. I have placed ITM in this game 100% of the time, yes you read that correct. I am NOT bragging, okay just a little, but it is very possible. I can even say I have NOT come in first place at the most 5-6 times. [ QUOTE ]

You've finished in the top 10-20% of all players 95% of the time? You'll forgive me if I don't believe you?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually mathematically its not. But what’s math right?

You’ll almost never get your chips in as a 95% favorite, and especially not over and over through out a year in a 20 person tourt! Your gonna have heads up pots 60/40, 65/35, 50/50, and against multiple opponents and big draws, ITS NOT POSSIBLE! Your gonna have QQ run into AA, and Your gonna have your big pockets sucked out on by smaller ones, or a live over card. There not run of cards this good! ITS NOT POSSIBLE ABSOULETLY NOT!

And Yes anything is “OBVIOUSLY POSSIBLE“, But in this case, it is DAMN NEAR AS CLOSE TO IMPOSSIBLE AS YOU CAN GET!

[BigRedAce]

[ QUOTE ]
This is OBVIOUSLY VERY POSSIBLE. I play with the same group of guys on a regular basis for a little better than a year now. I have placed ITM in this game 100% of the time, yes you read that correct. I am NOT bragging, okay just a little, but it is very possible. I can even say I have NOT come in first place at the most 5-6 times. [ QUOTE ]

You've finished in the top 10-20% of all players 95% of the time? You'll forgive me if I don't believe you?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Same here. I play with the same 20+ guys regularly and am almost always in the money (80% or so). It's gotten a little less as we all have improved, but being in the money a majority of the time is defintely possible *with the same people*. You get to know very well how they play, and they think they know how you play.

Example, one week I was bluffing like a mad man and occasionally showing my cards. Next week I had cards up the wazoo and kept getting called "because he bluffs all the time..."

[TM1212]

Your all watching to much TV Poker!

Im not having this talk unless one of you actually look at the figures your throwing around. Theres no way any tell, read, or cards run could give you an edge to the percent you guys are talking.

[ricochet420]

I think the people calling us liars need to do a little better job on your home games. The only proof I have is my cash and the fact there is a bounty on my head every time we play because I have not lost a dime in our home game over the last one year plus. [ QUOTE ]
Your all watching to much TV Poker!

Im not having this talk unless one of you actually look at the figures your throwing around. Theres no way any tell, read, or cards run could give you an edge to the percent you guys are talking.

[/ QUOTE ]

[jtr]

So if I said I rolled a die 50 times and never hit a six, how would you feel about that? Sceptical? That's about a 1 in 10,000 shot, if you're interested.

Please, slow down and have a think about it, you home-game tough guys. The reason people are not believing your "I always finish in the money" claims is because they understand at least a little bit about probability.

Surely you'd agree that in a NL hold'em tournament with any reasonable blind schedule, you're probably going to be all-in at least once a night with odds of 80:20 in your favour. (Actually that's being incredibly optimistic, but no matter.) So, a few calculations show us that you can only win those 80:20 shots for so long before you lose one and bust out of that night's tournament. If you play a tournament like this once a week for a year, the odds of never busting are too small to even talk about.

Maybe you could get some more credibility if you posted the payout schedules and the number of games you've played with a given structure. I can imagine that if 6 people play a tournament where the top 3 spots pay, for example, and everyone else is loose and crazy, then regular ITM finishes could be assured by simply folding for the first two hours...

[ricochet420]

Of course I would be skeptical. Different situation with the home game though pard. If you take a look at the differences you will see there is far more than probability and luck involved in winning tourneys. FWIW our home tourney blind structures are such that it favors the skilled players. Also, I have maybe 1 other "skilled" player in my home game. I HAVE finished ITM 100% in this game. I care NOT to prove it to YOU or anybody else. Call me a liar I don't give a sh1t. It IS possible. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
This is OBVIOUSLY VERY POSSIBLE. I play with the same group of guys on a regular basis for a little better than a year now. I have placed ITM in this game 100% of the time, yes you read that correct. I am NOT bragging, okay just a little, but it is very possible. I can even say I have NOT come in first place at the most 5-6 times. [ QUOTE ]

You've finished in the top 10-20% of all players 95% of the time? You'll forgive me if I don't believe you?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Ricochet, you have to understand that the OP said he accomplished this feat every week for the past two years. He stated he finished ITM 95% of the time in a tourney that was held every Thursday. The way I read it is that he finished ITM then 95 times out of approximately 100 or so tourneys (1 a week for 52 weeks, times 2 years).


That, just plain isn't possible, given the fact that he was talking about tourneys with 24 players. If you believe what he said, then I have some cat turds coated in gold that are worth $25 each and I have 200 of them, but I'll sell them to you for 88 cents each.


You, have said that you finsih ITM regularly, you didn't specify what that is. Personally, we have a home tourney that we run every month. It's typically 10 players or less and we have one guy who has finished ITM in the last 15 out of about 30 that we've run. Personally, I've finished ITM in 24. But, the difference in finishing ITM 95/100 with 24 players involved is way more difficult than what you are talking about and what I'm talking about.

It's plain BS and there's no other way around it. He had to have been bad-beated out of least 10 of these if you are looking at it mathematically.

[Bulldog]

[ QUOTE ]
We have been playing a weekly NLHE tour. for 2 years now. it is usually 15 to 20 players every week.i think that there are at least 5 to 6 good players playing.We have a 100 dollar buy in and pay 3 places. I have finished in the top 3 everytime except about 5% of the time.I have been to horse and won a couple of super satellites. but i am jiust nervous about moving up to 1000 to 2000 buyin tour.i think i am a decent player.any thoughts please on making th jump to higher buyins thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

If everyone else was playing with their cards face up all the time every week, you could not do this.

[michiganfan9]

I agree because a few dozen people is ok but a few hundred will really test your skills.

[ricochet420]

Point well taken. There is a difference. I guess I should have read a little more carefully. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Socrates]

Wait, wait wait. You're telling us that you have a tournament every week and you make the money 95% of the time. Then you tell us that you have an EOY pool that is equal to $4600? Where is the money coming from for this $4600 pot and it was winner take all? I thought you payed 3 places and with 46 you should be paying more. Also, how do you determine who is and is not invited to the winner take all tourney? I mean, can I just show up at the EOY tourney and pay $100 to win 4600 from all of you have put in over the year? I'm calling BS on this one.

BTW, if you want to know what you need to start playing $1000 MTTs, start with $30K - that would be your bankroll for that level.

[TM1212]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the people calling us liars need to do a little better job on your home games. The only proof I have is my cash and the fact there is a bounty on my head every time we play because I have not lost a dime in our home game over the last one year plus. [ QUOTE ]
Your all watching to much TV Poker!

Im not having this talk unless one of you actually look at the figures your throwing around. Theres no way any tell, read, or cards run could give you an edge to the percent you guys are talking.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]



ITS NOT POSIBLE, EVEN GETTING YOUR MONEY AHEAD EVERYTIME YOU WILL GET OUTDRAWN AS SOMEONE ELSE SAID, IF YOU PLAY WITH oppenents who kept there CARDS FACE UP you still couldnt get this win rate. ITS SIMPLE MATH!

[TM1212]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I would be skeptical. Different situation with the home game though pard. If you take a look at the differences you will see there is far more than probability and luck involved in winning tourneys. FWIW our home tourney blind structures are such that it favors the skilled players. Also, I have maybe 1 other "skilled" player in my home game. I HAVE finished ITM 100% in this game. I care NOT to prove it to YOU or anybody else. Call me a liar I don't give a sh1t. It IS possible. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


YOU ARE A LIAR!!!!! ITS PROBILITY, SIMPLE MATH GOD!!!!!! EVEN if everyone started with 500 bb and 4 hour blinds, ITS STILL ALMOST A COMPLETE IMPOSSIBLILITY. You can't always get your chips in where an oppenent is drawing dead, so you have to take situations like 80/20 (which is also very unlikely, much more likely are 3to2 situations, maybe worse. NO MATERR HOW GOOD YOU PLAY, THERE IS LUCK IN POKER, NO MATTER THE BLIND STRUCTURE THERE IS LUCK IN POKER. Do the math man!

[bravos1]

Why is everyone even arguing about this? If you finish in the money every week in your $100 buy-in tourney.. well then ummmmm great. So, why not buy into a $1000 MTT just to test it out? I mean after all, it will only take you 1-2 weeks to get it all back at your home game so there is really no risk! Actually, why don't you just tell your home game players to post your entry and then promise them you will not play for 2 weeks /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

BTW, do the other people care that you have taken about $50K of their money in the last 2 years? Tell us where you game is so we can all get involved! It would even be worth the plane ticket cost if you were close enough.. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[flatline]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I would be skeptical. Different situation with the home game though pard. If you take a look at the differences you will see there is far more than probability and luck involved in winning tourneys. FWIW our home tourney blind structures are such that it favors the skilled players. Also, I have maybe 1 other "skilled" player in my home game. I HAVE finished ITM 100% in this game. I care NOT to prove it to YOU or anybody else. Call me a liar I don't give a sh1t. It IS possible. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You are a liar.

[Hawklet]

This is all actually very possible.

Start with 1000 chips.

No Small blind.

BB is 1 chip.

No blind raising, no betting until river.

The 2 times he was unfortunate enough to get knocked out, he misread the board and he thought he had the nuts.

Seems simple enough.

[ricochet420]

You are obviously no good at poker and are paying my bills. Thank you. [ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Of course I would be skeptical. Different situation with the home game though pard. If you take a look at the differences you will see there is far more than probability and luck involved in winning tourneys. FWIW our home tourney blind structures are such that it favors the skilled players. Also, I have maybe 1 other "skilled" player in my home game. I HAVE finished ITM 100% in this game. I care NOT to prove it to YOU or anybody else. Call me a liar I don't give a sh1t. It IS possible. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


YOU ARE A LIAR!!!!! ITS PROBILITY, SIMPLE MATH GOD!!!!!! EVEN if everyone started with 500 bb and 4 hour blinds, ITS STILL ALMOST A COMPLETE IMPOSSIBLILITY. You can't always get your chips in where an oppenent is drawing dead, so you have to take situations like 80/20 (which is also very unlikely, much more likely are 3to2 situations, maybe worse. NO MATERR HOW GOOD YOU PLAY, THERE IS LUCK IN POKER, NO MATTER THE BLIND STRUCTURE THERE IS LUCK IN POKER. Do the math man!

[/ QUOTE ]

[ricochet420]

and a dam good one, doesn't mean I haven't finished ITM 100% of the time in MY home game. You sir must be one of the few paying my bills. Thank you.[ QUOTE ]

You are a liar.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Bulldog]

Payout structure for ricochet's 8-player $20 SNG

1st $21
2nd $20
3rd $20
4th $20
5th $20
6th $20
7th $20
8th $19

Them boys likes to gamble! ITM 100%!

[ricochet420]

Payout structure for bulldogs mammas "services".

1st BJ 9.99
2nd BJ 4.99
3rd BJ FREE!~~
after that daddy comes in to finish the job.

[varoadstter]

I think this is the key!

He's playing solitaire poker.

[ricochet420]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is the key!

I'm playing solitaire sex with myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP N00b

[jtr]

Tiocfaidh ar la.

[ricochet420]

Yes, yes it will. Indeed it will.[ QUOTE ]
Tiocfaidh ar la.

[/ QUOTE ]

[smoore]

I am officially hosing this whole thread down with four barrels of industrial grade:

STFU!

jesus.