ICM says call, do i take every +$EV

[J-Lo]

blinds 150/300 5 handed buyin=$55
Hero is BB (A5o)

Hero 1420
SB/villain 825
button 1885
CO 3285
CO-1 2385

3 folds, SB pushes

He hasn't gotten out of hand, but this seems like a very desperate push. I am getting meteocre odds (call 525, to win 825). ICM says call if range is 22+,A2+,KJ+; break even is 55+,A9+, KJ+; and $EV is negative when range is 55+,A8+.

Is this an easy call at the $55's vs an oponent who hasn't gotten out of line, but seems very desperate due to stack sizes? Who prefers i push vs the two big stacks on my left w/ marginal to good hands? Is this one of those situations where you cannot wait for a better spot because of the two big stacks? I still have 3.5x BB plenty of FE vs CO-1.

[Nick B.]

Easy call. If you are thinking about folding any ace in this situation, you are way too tight. You are getting better than 2:1 here. 550 to win 1150.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
call 525, to win 825

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't it be call 525 to win 1125? Your BB is already in the pot.

[ckff93]

I disagree, I think this is a fold. When People get desperate they are usually looking to go in with Any Ace. You have A5, meaning that there are only 3 cards below you with an Ace. That makes me think the odds are good that you are dominated in this hand. Plus I feel like for tournament play at a 1 Table it isn't worth the risk because losing here means you are forced all in within the next couple of rounds.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM says call if range is 22+,A2+,KJ+

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think his pushing range is that tight with 2.75x bb? I'm sure he's also pushing any 2 broadway, Kx, connectors unless you have him read as ultratight pushing standards (and i don't think merely not being "out of line" counts as ultratight).

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM says call if range is 22+,A2+,KJ+; break even is 55+,A9+, KJ+; and $EV is negative when range is 55+,A8+.


[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn't the villian be pushing any two, if he has any idea what he's doing? Or am I too loose?

[sofere]

Should? Yes. Would? Need Read.

[Blarg]

Look at the blinds and SB's stack size; he's going to be forced all-in aside from some pocket change in the next five hands anyway, as the blinds go up.

So he has just a few hands to get something worth fighting with. Most likely, SB is going to have to either make that fight with anything, including possibly total garbage, or pull off a successful steal(or two) with anything, including possibly total garbage, to keep any folding equity at all, and survive the blinds for just a little while longer.

He's not going to be waiting for a pair or any ace, because that's just waiting to be blinded out. He's GOT to push soon, and will probably do it with worse than that, and very soon.

This is a chance for hero to take advantage of someone's desperation to pick up some chips. He's not guaranteed to win, but the next round of blinds will take away more than half his stack and leave him with only about one big bet, for almost no fold equity. Playing an ace against a small stack desperate to push before his folding equity vanishes in the next few hands could easily be the best confrontation he gets for the rest of the tourney.

If I'm going out within five hands(except for an extra 125 chips), I'm definitely pushing any king here and maybe a lot worse. I think villain is virtually forced to push anything that even smells like a hand.

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
call 525, to win 825

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't it be call 525 to win 1125? Your BB is already in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep i'm mildly retarded, at first i typed i was gettin better thatn 2:1, but then deleted it after i used my wrong way to caculate odds.

[MrX]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call. If you are thinking about folding any ace in this situation, you are way too tight. You are getting better than 2:1 here. 550 to win 1150.

[/ QUOTE ]

case closed.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
blinds 150/300 5 handed buyin=$55
Hero is BB (A5o)

Hero 1420
SB/villain 825
button 1885
CO 3285
CO-1 2385

3 folds, SB pushes

He hasn't gotten out of hand, but this seems like a very desperate push. I am getting meteocre odds (call 525, to win 825). ICM says call if range is 22+,A2+,KJ+; break even is 55+,A9+, KJ+; and $EV is negative when range is 55+,A8+.

Is this an easy call at the $55's vs an oponent who hasn't gotten out of line, but seems very desperate due to stack sizes? Who prefers i push vs the two big stacks on my left w/ marginal to good hands? Is this one of those situations where you cannot wait for a better spot because of the two big stacks? I still have 3.5x BB plenty of FE vs CO-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think there is much question about this call. reads aside, SB is pushing any K almost all suited and even maybe 8To+...and possibly "any two". In any case, getting 2-1 I would view this as a highly +EV spot and would not worry about his "tightness" up until now in putting him on a possible range.

call

[J-Lo]

So, is giving up MY FE for the rest of the tourney worth the risk? Essentially, i am putting my entire tourney life on the line. If i lose, i'm left w/ 600 chips which i MUST push next hand in my SB, even if someone before me pushes (especially if someone before me pushes.)

I feel i can still make CO-1 fold to my push w/ 1120 chips (1/2 his stack). I understand at the higher levels (109+) this is a call, because I won't get too many oportunities to steal, and others WILL call me w/ weak aces when i try to steal. But against the terribly tight people at the $55's i can steal my way into the money w/o taking 60% risks like this oporunity.

But then again, i am torn between gettin 2:1 w/ 5 left. Next time i'll call this-- because 2:1 w/ an A is too good to passup. Damn you ICM.

edit: I hit the submit button too ealry.