winning 5 SNG's in a row

[mybrainssore]

Assuming everyone plays the same, What are the odds??

[cleinen]

Pointless to think about.
1. No one plays the same
2. Who cares

[Nick B.]

You first percentage times itself 5 times. ie .12x.12x.12x.12x.12

[mybrainssore]

[ QUOTE ]
Pointless to think about.
1. No one plays the same
2. Who cares

[/ QUOTE ]

go away and be useless somewhere else

[yid3655]

I wonder what is everyone's individual record for winning SNG's. I would think mine is around 4 nothing special

[jcm4ccc]

1 out of 100,000

I have a feeling that this number distorts what you are actually asking. What are the circumstances that lead you to ask this question?

[mybrainssore]

[ QUOTE ]
You first percentage times itself 5 times. ie .12x.12x.12x.12x.12

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.

[mybrainssore]

[ QUOTE ]
1 out of 100,000

I have a feeling that this number distorts what you are actually asking. What are the circumstances that lead you to ask this question?

[/ QUOTE ]


This... A friend just emailed me about it...

http://www.noblepoker.com/promotions.html

Enjoy!

[cleinen]

Sorry about the earlier post. But the better question would be if I win 1st x percent and everyone I play against plays equally as poor what are the odds of winning 5 in a row? I believe sample size would be a huge factor in this as well.

[mybrainssore]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry about the earlier post. But the better question would be if I win 1st x percent and everyone I play against plays equally as poor what are the odds of winning 5 in a row?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why the need to make a simple question sound so difficult?

If everyone plays exactly the same (and it doesn't have to be poor play) then over the long run you will win 1 in 10.

[ QUOTE ]
I believe sample size would be a huge factor in this as well.

[/ QUOTE ] yes it would. The long run means the long run.

[cleinen]

Because if everything is equal then everyone loses to the rake. So your odds need to be better than 1 to 10.

[mybrainssore]

good shout:)

Should have added in "Assuming no rake"

[Iamafish]

So what are the odds of win five in a row?

BUT THEN, you gotta look at pot odds! Like the $15,000 you get. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I was thinking about this, but is it really worth it?

[jccookjr]

Don't know the odds but I think it can be done.

[the_joker]

One more thing to add to Nick B's post. If the probability of winning an individual one is .1 (assuming you have 10% chance of winning) then the probability of winning 5 in a row is .1 ^ 5 = .00001 as Nick said. To figure out what your chances would be if you played x number of SNG's I think would be:

1 - (.99999 ^ x)

So say you plan on playing 500 SNG's to shoot for the bonus, then your chance on winning would be 1 - (.99999 ^ 500) = .005. To figure out the EV value would be something like .00001 * $15000 = $.15 over 5 SNG's. You could try posting this in the probability forum, but I think this analysis is reasonable.

[crookedhat99]

[ QUOTE ]
Because if everything is equal then everyone loses to the rake. So your odds need to be better than 1 to 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

This has no relevance to one's chances of winning x sng's in a row.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pointless to think about.
1. No one plays the same
2. Who cares

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="red">You're right, cleinen. I should not be playing this game b/c I have no idea how to do *very* simple math</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Yugoslav

[igotBlackJak]

i dunno about odds.. but i've done it... This topic was discussed in another longer post, but the reason this might be good is that you still win your tournament profits, so your not paying your entire buyins just for the bonus. Problem is these games might be flooded with better than normal players for these limits.

This is doable, the only problem is their software sucks sooo bad...

Enjoy and good luck