In it to win in or cashing first

[arod15]

Here is the Hand I am Empire 50+5. I am in the SB with 3000 in chips. Chip leader has 4100 then tere is a short stack with 800 and another with 1600 plus the 400 BB and 200 SB. I look down at QQ. The Big stack moves all in from the button. I immediatly call. To see he has 44. I am a huge favorite but sure enough he hits a set. Having another chance i would certainly make the same choice. At that point im in there to win it. Howerver, a few people mentioned it might be best to fold there and guarneentee myself a cash finish. I find that to be ridicoulous. Any comments? On my hand and the decision in question?

[ur2god]

no use fighting the big stack u can get it later after the
shorty is gone, thats my motto.

but hey QQ is a great hand and if your playin to win this
is the hand to do it on, so its up to the person really.

[Nick B.]

I think this is an easy call.

[xLukex]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

The birthday boy is right.

[durron597]

You have an extra 100 chips in here so I'm going to take 50 chips from the stacks of the SB and BB. Assume they always fold for simplicity.

Then if you fold, stacks are:
4700
3000
1550
750

And your $EV is 30.53% of the prize pool. If you call and win, the chip stacks are:
1100
6600
1550
750

And your equity is 42.14% of the prize pool. If you call and lose, your equity is 0% of the prize pool.

Let x be your chance of winning. Then you should call when x * 42.14% > 30.53%, or x > 72.45%.

Then, if we put a range of hands into PokerStove:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 71.8699 % [ 00.71 00.00 ] { QQ }
Hand 2: 28.1301 % [ 00.28 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A6s, KQs-K8s, QJs-Q9s, JTs, AKo-A6o, KQo-K8o, QJo-Q9o, JTo }

That means he would have to be looser than the above range of hands for it to be correct to call. I think this is a fold (if you believe ICM).

[GoldenHorde]

With chips stacks of 6600, 1550, 1100, and 750, I believe your actual equity is greater than 42%. None of your opponents have even 4BB's and they will all be forced into making desperation moves whereas you can now sit back and make only positive moves. Add to this the increased FE you now have as the big stack and I think this becomes a clear call at least if you trust your big stack playing abilities at all.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
With chips stacks of 6600, 1550, 1100, and 750, I believe your actual equity is greater than 42%. None of your opponents have even 4BB's and they will all be forced into making desperation moves whereas you can now sit back and make only positive moves. Add to this the increased FE you now have as the big stack and I think this becomes a clear call at least if you trust your big stack playing abilities at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember you can only win 50% of the prize pool. So really there's only an 8% difference, which is not that much. If you end up HU with say 7000 chips then you still can lose even if you get doubled up against once. I think 42% equity is about right.

On the other hand, if you think that his hand range is wider (suited 1-gappers, lower suited connectors) then the call becomes better.

[arod15]

Well i put him on a low pair at best AX no one would go all in there with AA they want a call. He was using his stack for power that was clear. He did thatall the time that tourney he ran into a 4-1 underdog roll and got lucky. I dont think there is anyway id ever lay that down. And if i hit that hand EV not hign i would be 95% sure im wining that tourney im strong enough heads up. Interesting math though makes me think. I would lay down AK-below even JJ 10 10 but QQ KK AA in that spot ima take my chance.

[oxymoron]

[ QUOTE ]
You have an extra 100 chips in here so I'm going to take 50 chips from the stacks of the SB and BB. Assume they always fold for simplicity.

Then if you fold, stacks are:
4700
3000
1550
750

And your $EV is 30.53% of the prize pool. If you call and win, the chip stacks are:
1100
6600
1550
750

And your equity is 42.14% of the prize pool. If you call and lose, your equity is 0% of the prize pool.

Let x be your chance of winning. Then you should call when x * 42.14% > 30.53%, or x > 72.45%.

Then, if we put a range of hands into PokerStove:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 71.8699 % [ 00.71 00.00 ] { QQ }
Hand 2: 28.1301 % [ 00.28 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A6s, KQs-K8s, QJs-Q9s, JTs, AKo-A6o, KQo-K8o, QJo-Q9o, JTo }

That means he would have to be looser than the above range of hands for it to be correct to call. I think this is a fold (if you believe ICM).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is what seperates the good players from the casual players. I need to get better at this...

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have an extra 100 chips in here so I'm going to take 50 chips from the stacks of the SB and BB. Assume they always fold for simplicity.

Then if you fold, stacks are:
4700
3000
1550
750

And your $EV is 30.53% of the prize pool. If you call and win, the chip stacks are:
1100
6600
1550
750

And your equity is 42.14% of the prize pool. If you call and lose, your equity is 0% of the prize pool.

Let x be your chance of winning. Then you should call when x * 42.14% > 30.53%, or x > 72.45%.

Then, if we put a range of hands into PokerStove:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 71.8699 % [ 00.71 00.00 ] { QQ }
Hand 2: 28.1301 % [ 00.28 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A6s, KQs-K8s, QJs-Q9s, JTs, AKo-A6o, KQo-K8o, QJo-Q9o, JTo }

That means he would have to be looser than the above range of hands for it to be correct to call. I think this is a fold (if you believe ICM).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is what seperates the good players from the casual players. I need to get better at this...

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't do that.

[gasgod]

I think the question in the subject line is wrong. Your action should be predicated on what is likely to make the most money. Durron's approach is the right way.

GG

[locutus2002]

"ICM numbers are wrong a lot of the time, especially late in an event with big blinds, and short stacks. To use them to guide your play in these situations is often flat out wong, yet a lot of people seem to be doing this."

(Taken from ICM's website criticism of ICM originally posted by curtains, also a pooh-bah.)

I think the QQ is a call, but this is a very interesting situation for other hands in general. Hero has substantial TEV if he folds and none if he calls and loses. Since NLHE is a game of small percentages where a player is rarely greater than a 2:1 favorite and the flat payout structure of a SNG, when should hero make this call. Knowing that hero has to have unreasonable calling requirements, Button should be pushing any two.

Against any two, QQ is 80% and easily meets the burden to call if you accept the ICM numbers.

I would start with the ICM numbers and adjust the TEV from there. I think the 42% number feels right (uncanny). But I woudl adjust the fold down from 30.53% because:
1) with 7.5XBB left any loss against a shorty will leave me back in the pack.
2) Big stack has position and will/is bullying me.
3) Its dangerous trying to fold into the money short-handed.
4) Shorties will play more agressively.

I wouldn't be surprised if your TEV for folding and trying to wait out the bubble was only ~27%. It may even be lower if you consider the times that you cash and are too crippled to advance. This lowers your calling requirements to 64% or around a 2:1 favorite (calling with AK against any two).

[arod15]

There is no way laying down QQ against an obvious attempt to steal the blind is correct. Getting 3rd place gets you 95 Net Dollars geting first gets you 195. The assumption is flawed becasue u assume the orginal raiser has AA KK At best he may have had AK But even then I am the favorite. Making money is about making correct decision. Long term there is now way folding queens in that spot is profitable. Especially against someone who has repetedly stolen blinds. Think about it logically does AA or KK going to go all in there? Take those away and redo the calc. Actually forget the calc, because it is fundementally flawed.

[durron597]

That being said, the result I gave made it very close. You make the range tighter, calling becomes worse; make it looser, it becomes better.

Note that adding more Ax and Kx hands to his range actually makes the percentage worse.

But one thing the OP said was that he didn't think that the big stack was likely to have AA or KK here, if we remove those from the range we get:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 74.0656 % [ 00.74 00.00 ] { QQ }
Hand 2: 25.9344 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { QQ-22, AKs-A6s, KQs-K8s, QJs-Q9s, JTs, AKo-A6o, KQo-K8o, QJo-Q9o, JTo }

Which makes the call look a lot better.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Think about it logically does AA or KK going to go all in there? Take those away and redo the calc. Actually forget the calc, because it is fundementally flawed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, I posted the calc with AA and KK taken out at exactly the same time as you posted this reply.

Now as far as the calc being fundamentally flawed, the problem is that ICM does in fact break down in large blind situations. In general, close decisions (like this one) we should err on the side of calling when the blinds are huge unless the table & big stack are very passive, which I doubt is the case here.

[arod15]

Sorry i meant to say net 3rd is 45 2nd 95 1st 195